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Monday, December 11, 2023

Another one day reversal to the upside as stock markets opened lower and closed higher. The Dow gained 157 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index continues higher. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next two trading days. Today really doesn't qualify, for we had muted gains besides the Dow. So we'll see how it goes tomorrow. We still have the potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P 500 daily chart. However the S&P is now comfortably above the resistance at 4600. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Inflation data out tomorrow will most likely be the market mover. Gold lost $18 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed ahead of the inflation report. The XAU lost a point and GDX shed 1/8. Volume was light. The gold shares held up much better than gold and also finished up from the worst levels of the day. Not yet short term oversold for GDX on the daily chart. I did place an open order out there for the GDX January calls but it will take some more decline for it to be filled. If GDX makes it back to the 50 day moving average the order should be filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. Still short term oversold here. Inflation data to be reported for the next two days in a row followed by the Fed later on Wednesday. So we should be ready for some kind of volatility either up or down. Not exactly sure what to expect so we'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Asia and Europe were generally higher. WE'll see how the market reacts to the inflation numbers tomorrow.

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