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Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Moving higher as the Dow was up 123 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. My guess is that the decline is finished for now but we'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We've had five wave downside patterns complete on more than one of the major stock indices. We are in a seasonally bullish period for stocks. The S&P is both short and medium term oversold. I think that the weight of evidence says that we'll be moving higher from here. We'll see. I still like the SPY November calls, especially if we go back and test the recent low. Gold was off $11 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. My GDX November calls are now losers. The short term indicators are heading lower with room to go. Unless things turn around for the gold shares this week, this trade will be another money burner. GDX closed below its 50 day moving average. I'm not giving up on this idea yet considering the geo-political backdrop. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell and broke through the short term up trend line. This is another reason to believe that the decline is over. The short term indicators are heading down with room to go. I would not be surprised if the current two day gains for stocks continued. But we'll have to see what happens with the Fed tomorrow. In general Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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