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Monday, October 16, 2023

Moving higher to begin option expiration week as the Dow gained 314 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to move back up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The market seems to be shrugging off the geo-political tensions but that could change in a flash. Short term overbought now for the S&P 500. Perhaps the positive option expiration week bias will win out but it's only Monday. Earnings will be front and center for a few weeks but the market is still in a news headline risk mode. Tough trading to be sure and only four days left in the October option cycle. WE will most likely remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. Gold was off almost ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU had a slight fractional gain and GDX finished the day flat. Volume was light. GDX is stalling at the longer term down trend line at 29 and that is to be expected. My GDX October call position is still shwoing a profit but not as much as when the day started. Plenty of risk remains in this trade with only four days left. If GDX can make it though the trend line the profit on this trade will be pretty good. If GDX pulls back from here there probably won't be any profit at all or perhaps a loss. My thinking is that the next negative headline out of the Middle East will drive gold higher but I could be wrong. Or this week remains status quo there and gold drifts lower. I could also just get out with whatever gain this trade is showing now and be done with it. As usual the trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are around mid-range. So the VIX could go either way from here. We'll watch and see what develops overnight and take it from there. Asia was lower and Europe higher to start the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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