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Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Heading back to the downside as the Dow fell 105 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The overall market was much lower than the Dow with the NASDAQ once again leading the way. The S&P 500 closed below the 4200 level and back below its 200 day moving average. Short term oversold here and staying that way. Looks like I could be wrong about it holding up at around the 4200 level if we get some follow through selling tomorrow. I didn't buy any SPY November calls today but was looking at them. Like I said yesterday, I still believe that we're closer to a bottom than to any kind of top. But who knows? Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative. However I think that the gold shares just followed the overall market lower. I did adjust my open order for the GDX November calls. Still not filled yet. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. So maybe the idea of trying the calls here again is wrong. I'm sticking with it for now though as the geo-political backdrop remains very uncertain. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are mid-range so it could go either way. I can't say that I have a good handle on where the VIX will go next. We'll probably stay on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. There is plenty of time remaining in the November option cycle. Asia and Europe were up with the exception of India. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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