Wednesday, October 11, 2023
Another day of gains despite higher than expected inflation data as the Dow rose 65 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index has turned back up. We did see some selling during todays session but the market climbed back in the final two hours. Once again we had news that you would think would lead to a negative market but it didn't. The NASDAQ continues to lead and that's a plus. Getting to short term overbought on the S&P 500 but not there yet. Maybe we'll make it to the 50 day moving average at 4410. After that we have a down trend line on the daily chart that comes in just above 4450. But perhaps we're getting ahead of ourselves as we still have the consumer inflation report to digest tomorrow. Gold added another dozen on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates slipped. The XAU gained 2 1/4 and GDX added 1/2. Volume was average. GDX had made it back to its 50 day moving average and is not yet short term overbought. The down trend line on the daily chart that began in May lies at the 29 level. We are alomst there and that should prove to be a stopping point for this short term uptrend. But we'll see. The geo-political background has had a near term influence on the price of gold to be sure. Not sure how long that lasts. My GDX October call positions have made it back to one winner, one break even and one loser. The combined total is now back to break even. This is more than I could have hoped for a week ago but the world has changed. There's still almost a week and half left in the October option cycle but I probably shouldn't get greedy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. Still above the 50 day moving average here and just about short term oversold. The VIX is now comfortably below the 20 level. Asia was up and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows inflation report and go from there.
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