Tuesday, October 10, 2023
Continuing higher today as the Dow rose 134 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned around and is trying to move higher. We did finish well off the highs for the session heading into the inflation data. With all that is going on in the world it has been an impressive week so far for stocks. I do think that we've put in the bottom at 4220 for the S&P 500 however that doesn't mean we won't head lower again in the coming sessions. That level should contain any more selling though in my view. If we do get back there it would be the spot to try the SPY October calls. But I don't think that we will get back that low. I could be wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are heading up and are not yet completely overbought. Gold was up another $9 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were steady after dropping in the futures market yesterday. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are the same as for the S&P. Pointing up and not yet short term overbought. My GDX October calls remain the same with one position showing a profit and the other two showing losses. I'm still trying to cut the loss here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the market price action for Tuesday. The short term indicators are heading lower with room to run. However the VIX, like the overall market, could turn at any time. Which makes the reaction to the inflation data important as we try and figure out where we go from here. One of our indicators for the S&P is short term overbought so a drop from here would not be a surprise. But an extended decline from these levels would be. We'll watch and wwait to see what happens. Europe and Asia were up overnight with the exception of China. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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