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Friday, October 13, 2023

It is a nervous market as Middle East geo-political tensions have come to a head. The Dow managed a gain of 39 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now tracking sideways. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way by a large margin. That is not a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. I'm not sure what's next but the smaller stocks are leading the way down and that's another negative. Options expiration week coming up with plenty of uncertainty. Things seem like they want to go lower here but we'll have to see what happens over the weekend. It's a tricky time to try and navigate what will happen next. Perhaps we'll get a shot at the SPY October calls next week after all. But you've got to be nimble and pay complete attention. The risk might just be too high vs. the reward. We'll consider what to do over the weekend. Gold took over as the flight to safety choice as the futures soared $58. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dipped. The XAU climbed 4 3/4, while GDX gained almost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX has reached the target of the down trend line that began in May at the 29 level. It makes sense that it is stalling here but there's a chance that it could get through and move even higher next week. It could also be turned around here as well but with the problems in the world at the moment that doesn't seem to be in the cards. But anything can happen in this game. My GDX October call positions went from solid losers to a showing a profit overnight. Two of the positions are now in the black, with the other showing a small loss. I'll have to check and see where the next upside target lies on the daily chart. I would have liked to see a better gain in the gold shares today considering that gold went up over fifty bucks. But we'll take what we can get. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and made it over the 20 level at one point. The short term indicators are now moving back up. This implies more volatility to come which will most likely make next week very interesting in the markets. We are at the mercy of headline risk with geo-political uncertainties front and center. We'll do the best we can given the circumstances. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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