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Thursday, October 12, 2023

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell 173 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is now tracking sideways. It seemed like a quiet session as the inflation report came in where expected. However halfway through the day the market sold off 60 S&P points in a little over an hour. It attempted to come back the rest of the day. The S&P is more overbought than oversold here but not at extremes. The smaller stocks got hit hard today and that is not a plus. The very negative breadth is a warning as well. One day does not make a trend but it appears that the recent rise has run its course. Gold dropped $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was average. My GDX October calls went from break even back to solid losers with todays loss for GDX. GDX has been turned back by its 50 day moving average. In retrospect it appears yesterday was the time to exit this trade. There's still six days left in the October option cycle. If GDX doesn't turn back up tomorrow this trade will probably be left for dead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back up today and remains above its 50 day moving average. Not sure where it is heading next. There is plenty of room for the short term indicators to move higher. That would not bode well for stocks in the near term. We made it through the inflation data but I'm not sure what the next catalyst for market movement will be. Option expiration week is coming next week. Still plenty of geo-political turmoil to get through and earnings season is about to begin again. We'll keep an eye on things as usual. Asia was higher and Europe mixed again overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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