Thursday, October 19, 2023
More selling today as the Dow fell 250 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. We went back and forth for a while before heading lower in the second half of the day. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down. The Russell 2000 just broke to new lows for this move lower along with the TRAN. It appears that the S&P 500 is going to retest its recent lows. The short term indicators here are moving lower and are not yet even close to being oversold. If we do go lower from here, I think that the S&P will hold around the 4200 level. But I could be wrong. Still at the mercy of whatever headline pops up next and 3rd quarter earnings. Option expiration Friday tomorrow. Gold rallied $18 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX finished little changed after being lower early on. Volume was a bit above average. Once again the gold shares did not follow the price of gold higher and that's a negative. But the gold shares could just be following the overall market lower. One day to go for my GDX October calls and I'm still holding on to them. They lost some more ground today. But I'll be out of this trade tomorrow as time has run its course. I still like the gold share calls going forward as the longer term down trend line there has been broken. We'll try and wait for GDX to get back to short term oversold before attempting this idea again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and has closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are not yet overbought so we could see some more selling in stocks. Should be an interesting expiration Friday. Asia and Europe were down as it's a worldwide dumping of stocks. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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