Thursday, October 26, 2023
Another day another sell off as the Dow fell 251 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues down. Earnings reports were the excuse for todays decline. The NASDAQ is still leading the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and staying that way. I thought that the 4200 would provide support and be the downside target for this decline. I was wrong as we have passed that level and continue to go down. Not sure what's next but perhaps 4100 will contain things. Or maybe not. The large cap tech stocks are falling apart and they have been what has been keeping things together. The potential positive divergences that we saw earlier for the overall market have been negated. I am still lookng at the SPY November calls but cannot figure out where the entry point would be right now. We'll have to remain on the sidelines for now but that could change. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on heavy volume. They did finish up from the worst levels on the day. I had thought that maybe GDP would come in strong this morning and perhaps the gold shares would drop. That is what occurred. Last night I adjusted my open order for the GDX November calls and it was filled this morning. The entry was OK but maybe could have been just a little better. The position is showing a very slight gain. The short term indicators for GDX are around mid-range. So there is room to move both ways. I'm still expecting the Middle East conflict to provide a boost for gold sometime in the November option cycle but I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but not as much as expected given todays decline. Not sure what that means. Still above the 20 level here. Inflation data due out tomorrow will probably be a market mover one way or the other early on. The S&P is oversold with the summation index moving down in negative territory and we haven't even seen a decent bounce yet. Interesting times. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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