Tuesday, October 24, 2023
The bounce arrived on schedule as the Dow gained 204 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. THere are some potential positive divergences for the S&P. It is also so far holding on to its 200 day moving average. Do we dare attempt the SPY November calls here with so much time left in the November option cycle? After all we do still feel that the S&P will hold the 4200 level going forward from here. I'll think about it tonight. Gold was off $5 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX ended about unchanged but up from the worst levels of the session. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there. GDX remains short term overbought but not extremely so. Remaining patient here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued down and the short term indicators are heading lower with room to go. 18 is the level to watch here as that is where the short term up trend line lies. If the VIX can break that line we will be more convinced that long is the way to go from here. We are already pretty sure given the level of the S&P and the seasonality factor. But the market goes where it wants. We are still at the mercy of the next headline of geo-political consequence and the coming earnings announcements. However we are obviously closer to a bottom in the S&P than a top. That said we'll continue to keep a close watch on things. Europe was higher and Asia mixed last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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