Tuesday, October 17, 2023
Back and forth today as the Dow rose 13 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to move higher. We opened with a big gap to the downside. The market then rallied back to positive territory, only to move lower once again. Sideways was the trend for the final couple of hours. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on some of the indicators and stuck below its 50 day moving average. I'm not sure what the next catalyst will be or which way we're going. So far it looks like the positive option expiration week bias is showing up. The NASDAQ was lower on the session though. We are still at the mercy of the next headline coming from the Middle East. Gold finished the day flat. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates rose. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares outperformed the metal itself and that's a plus. The light volume is a concern though as is the time remaining in the October option cycle. Not to mention that the gold shares are short term overbought. My GDX October call positions are back to showing decent gains with one exception. I'm not sure how much longer I'll hold on to this position. GDX did make it through the longer term down trend line today but the volume was lackluster. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits with the volatility. Mid-range on the short term techncials makes predicting where it goes from here difficult. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Three days left in the October option cycle with more uncertanties than usual and a Middle East conflict. Tough trading to be sure. Earnings seem to be in the back seat for now. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
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