Continuing higher for expiration Friday as the Dow gained 53 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We're still overbought and still moving higher.  My guess is that declines will be bought.  There is nothing to stop the rally at this point.  I do however expect some weakness early next week as we do need a pause.  That would be a chance to get some calls as the uptrend continues.  GE reported earnings today and the market liked what it heard.  The stock rose 3/4 on extremely heavy volume.  My GE calls turned a 125% profit but it could have been much better as I sold early in the morning at the worst possible time.  The trading is never easy.  I could have done another 75% to 80% if I would have held on longer.  Doesn't matter now.  We have a valid break out through the downtrend line on the daily charts.  The next technical expectation would be a snap back towards that line before moving higher.  I'll probably try the February GE calls here on the snap back if it occurs.  Gold was off 4 bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session.  Once again we should have been much worse on gold for the day with such dollar strength.  The inverse correlation between these two just isn't happening now.  The XAU was off a fraction.  ABX and GG were little changed while NEM gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  I am leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls however I adjusted the price lower.  I'll have to reconsider this trade over the weekend because gold still continues to be dead money even with this weeks $20 gain.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as the GE trade was a winner but the lousy exit leaves me with mixed feelings.  On the one hand it starts the year off right with a winner.  However since the gains should have been much more, it leaves a lot to be desired.  My trading is always a work in progress.  The stock indices continue to the upside and there seems to be nothing coming up to derail the party.  We'll see if we can continue the bash next week.  Gold had a good week but the gold shares were actually lower on the week.  Perhaps I should focus my energies elsewhere.  It will be another thing to ponder over the long weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A nice move higher today as the Dow gained 84 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  A day late from what I expected but that means nothing now.  We were up over 100 during the session.  Overbought, staying there and the summation index continues to the upside.  This won't last forever but we can enjoy it from the call side while it does.  Expiration tomorrow and anything can happen.  GE was up over 1/8 on heavy volume.  We were much higher but came off of the best levels of the day.  My GE calls are still in the black but that could change with the earnings out tomorrow morning.  We did break through the downtrend line that has been in place since October but fell right back down.  Tomorrows price action will determine the outcome of this trade.  Gold was higher again today, up $7 on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit lower today.  The XAU dropped 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM once again had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  My open order for the February ABX calls was almost filled this morning.  Perhaps this trade will get done next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trend remains up and the small stocks are leading the way and that is bullish.  One day left in the trading week before a long holiday weekend.  The GE trade will be completed tomorrow.  Earnings will determine the outcome.  It could go either way.  Gold has had a nice week so far but the gold shares have not participated.  That usually isn't bullish going forward.  I'm leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls regardless.  The gold shares remain oversold and that condition won't last forever.  On to expiration Friday.     

I expected a decent move to the upside today and we certainly didn't get it.  The Dow fell 23 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It was a mixed market to be sure, with the NASDAQ moving slightly higher.  The stock indices have been milling around since the huge fiscal cliff spike to the upside.  The summation index continues higher but price is lagging here.  The technicals remain overbought.  I'm still looking for higher prices ahead but not with the same conviction that I had before today.  When the market doesn't do what you expect, then something else is going on that you obviously don't know about.  GE fell a touch on average volume.  Looks like this GE trade will depend on the earnings and that is always just a 50/50 proposition.  The technicals here are mid-range, so just about anything can happen.  Gold was little changed on the futures and the same for the US dollar.  The XAU lost 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were all lower by 1/3 or so on light volume.  I'm still leaving in the open order for some February ABX calls.  The technicals for the gold shares remain more oversold than overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days remain in the January option cycle and I decided not to try the OEX calls here.  I expected market strength today and we didn't get any.  So I'm not exactly sure now where we go from here.  GE is simply an earnings play now.  Not exactly my favorite kind of trade.  Gold remains dead money but I'll try the ABX calls if my price is hit for the options.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A day similar to yesterday as we sold off early and then made it all the way back.  The Dow gained 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Still overbought and moving higher.  I would expect a decent move to the upside tomorrow, according to what I'm looking at.  The expiration week positive bias is just one of the reasons.  You never really know though, as the recent ascent has been on pretty light volume.  We'll see what happens.  It is probably too late for the January OEX calls.  GE didn't do much today and the volume was light.  The GE calls I have are still slightly in the black.  It looks like it will all depend on the earnings report due Friday.  However if we do have a good upside day tomorrow, perhaps GE can break through the downtrend line on the daily charts.  Wishful thinking perhaps.  Gold moved nicely higher again today, up $14 on the futures despite strength in the US dollar.  This relationship continues to baffle me as it has not acted in the normal pattern for some time now.  I do not know what it means going forward.  The XAU only rose 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other again.  The volume was nothing special.  I almost bought some February ABX calls but didn't.  I am leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls that I already have opened.  Once again I'll need to see some weakness in ABX for this order to be filled.  Didn't happen today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market has the feel of wanting to go higher here and I'm in that camp for the short term.  But after this week, who knows?  Waiting on the GE earnings at this point.  Gold looks like it is going to hold its 200 day moving average here and that is usually bullish going forward.  However that doesn't mean that the gold shares are going to rally.  We've been moving sideways to lower in the gold shares since mid-November.  Gold has been dead money for quite a while.  I'm still willing to try the February ABX calls if we get some pullback though.  May just be another mistake.  Time will tell.  On to Wednesday. 

Running in place it seems as the Dow gained 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  Sold off early and then came back throughout the trading day.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I expected some weakness early this week and we may have seen it this morning.  I would expect a pretty good move to the upside within the next 2 days.  It is expiration week.  GE was flat on the day with light volume.  My January GE calls are still slightly positive.  It looks like I'll be holding them into the earnings report on Friday.  We still need to get through the downtrend line from last October.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar was flat today.  The XAU lost 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  I'm leaving in the open order for the ABX February calls.  I'll need to see some weakness in ABX for this order to be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still overbought on the stock indices.  Regardless, my technical work shows that we will most likely see a pretty good upside move within the next couple of days.  I could be wrong.  ABX is stalling at its 50 day moving average.  A move above this line would be a positive sign.  4 days left in the January option cycle.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires overnight and go from there.   

A scant higher drift as the Dow gained 17 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Just marking time here or so it seems.  We opened lower and spent the rest of the session getting back to break even.  I'm looking for weakness at the beginning of next week, followed by some type of move higher.  That's my guess for now.  With only a week to go in the January option cycle the risk obviously increases.  I still may try the OEX calls if conditions come up ideal.  They rarely do.  GE lost a few cents and the volume was average.  Still can't get through the down trend line on a daily basis.  If we do, my GE calls will be profitable.  If we don't, the opposite.  Earnings on expiration Friday.  Gold fell today, off $17 on the futures despite weakness in the US dollar.  This relationship continues to be dysfunctional.  I'm not sure what it means but it isn't bullish for gold.  At some point it will change but it has been a while.  The gold shares are outperforming gold itself here.  However in this environment that means they are just going down less.  The XAU dipped 1/4 today.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses.  The volume was light to average.  I replaced my open order for the February ABX calls with the original trade, moving to a lower strike price.  I may simply try and enter this position on Monday if we see some weakness.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are overbought and staying there.  The summation index continues higher.  It's my belief that we'll hold up into the expiration and then we'll see what happens after that.  I'll probably hold the GE trade into the earnings report but that could change if GE rallies next week.  Gold continues to frustrate as it hovers along its 200 day moving average at $1660.  This has gone on for 3 weeks.  It will be decided which way we are going sooner or later.  I'm still inclined to try the gold share calls again.  That's it for this week.  Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow moved to a new high for the year as it gained 80 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive again.  I expected more consolidation before moving higher but that is not the case.  The summation index continues to the upside.  It looks like it is probably too late to try the OEX calls for January.  Unless we see a sharp pullback, I most likely will not attempt that trade.  We are on the way to being both short and medium term overbought on the stock indices but aren't there yet.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  My GE January calls are now slightly in the black.  If we can get through the down trend line that has been in effect since October on good volume, I'd expect GE to approach $22 in a hurry.  That line is around the 21.45 level.  I'm still likely to hold onto this trade into the earnings on expiration Friday, unless we run up before that report.  Gold had a good day as the US dollar got crushed.  Talk out of Europe sent the euro higher and the dollar lower.  The gold futures rose $22.  The XAU gained 3 3/4.  ABX up 7/8, GG higher by 1 1/2 and NEM up a buck.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  This could finally be the start of an extended move higher for the gold shares but it hasn't happened yet.  I canceled my open order for the February ABX calls and replaced it at a higher strike price since the premiums moved away from my previous order.  I may have to adjust as we move forward and I also may already be too late.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes continue higher and I expect that to be the case into next weeks expiration.  The over the counter issues lagged today, so maybe we will see some backing and filling in the next couple of days.  That's just a guess as usual.  Gold finally moved in tandem with weakness in the US dollar, so perhaps the normal inverse relationship will be back in play with these two.  A weaker dollar would also be supportive to higher equity prices as well.  We'll see how we close out the week tomorrow.   

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 61 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  I think that we are still in a consolidation mode until next week.  I would expect a bit more weakness moving forward before we see another leg up.  I'm still looking at getting some OEX January calls at the beginning of next week.  The summation index is moving higher.  GE was up a bit on light volume.  My GE January calls are about break even.  I'll be holding this trade into next week, perhaps all the way to the earnings report at the end of next week.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU fell 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on what passes for average volume these days.  Still not much going on in the gold market.  I've left in the open order for the ABX February calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The markets are actually pretty quiet so far this week.  Not really a lot of movement and the VIX is very low.  Hopefully we aren't getting too complacent because that could eventually lead to volatility.  I'm sticking with the game plan in place for now.  Hold the GE calls and attempt some OEX calls early next week.  I'm leaving the gold trade order out there in case we see some more weakness in ABX.  That potential trade also has a lot more time on it if filled.  We'll see what Thursdays trading brings.

Another loser today as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  Weakness or sideways action is to be expected this week.  I'm sticking with that thesis for now.  I still think expiration week will be positive.  I'll be looking at the OEX January calls later this week or on Monday for purchase to be held into the end of expiration week.  The summation index is still heading up.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  It is trying to hold at the 50 day moving average.  My open order for the GE January calls was filled in the morning.  They are showing a slight loss.  8 days to go in the January option cycle.  I'll probably hold onto these calls until next week.  Earnings due on expiration Friday.  Gold rose $15 on the futures and the US dollar was up a bit as well.  The XAU only managed a gain of 1/3 though.  ABX off 5/8, GG higher by 7/8 and NEM up 1/2.  Volume was OK for the gold shares.  I still have the open order in for the February ABX calls.  It might get filled tomorrow if weakness persists in ABX.  I'm not exactly sure if this trade is worth doing since gold has been dead money for so long.  But I guess I'm willing to try it one more time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still think we are in a digestion period from the recent huge gains in the stock indices.  The rally has been led by the small cap stocks and that implies higher equity prices moving forward.  The first trade of the year has been filled with the January GE calls.  We'll see what happens.  Gold is trying to hold at its 200 day moving average at around $1660.  Whether or not it does will determine how any gold share trade does in the near future.  We'll keep an eye on the markets overnight and take it from there.

We started off the week with a whimper as the Dow fell 51 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  I would expect some decline this week or sideways at best.  We need to digest the recent huge gains in the stock indices.  I would look for higher prices in expiration week.  I am looking at getting some OEX calls for next week.  Perhaps later in this week.  There is not a lot of economic data out this week but it is the start of earnings season again.  GE was down a bit but closed off of its lows for the day.  I am looking at the GE January calls.  I did place an overnight order for the January GE 21 calls.  We'll need to see some decline for the order to be filled.  Earnings are due expiration Friday.  Gold was off just a couple of bucks despite a big drop in the US dollar.  The usual inverse relationship here hasn't materialized for the past few weeks.  It isn't a positive for gold in my opinion.  I am still looking to get long the gold shares though.  The XAU fell 2 1/3.  ABX and GG fell 1/2 and NEM dropped 7/8.  Volume was light.  I placed an open order for the February ABX 35 calls.  As with the GE open order, ABX will need to see some decline for this order to be filled.  The gold shares are getting short term oversold once again.  This is a trade that I have tried numerous times in the preceding months.  It hasn't worked yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I would expect the stock indexes to slosh around here this week.  I do not expect any dramatic moves one way or the other.  Obviously the trend is up but we are extended in the McClellan oscillator.  I'll be looking to purchase some January OEX calls later this week.  Nobody likes gold for now and sometimes that is when you have to like it.  I'll ponder this idea tonight.  It is entirely possible that I should simply let gold do what it does and concentrate my energy elsewhere.  We'll see what happens in the foreign markets and go from there.     

A good end to the first week of trading in 2013 for the bulls as the Dow gained 43 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The employment report came in as expected and it really wasn't much of a market mover.  The stock indices are short term overbought but they could stay that way.  I think any declines will be bought here.  You cannot argue with price and the market is moving higher.  I still think that we will see more gains heading into the option expiration in 2 weeks.  GE was up a bit and the volume was light.  I would like to see more participation here from GE but it isn't happening yet.  If we can break through the declining tops line at around $21.50, we should see GE move up.  I am still considering the January calls here.  Gold had a roller coaster type of session.  The futures closed down $25 and they were lower than that during the morning.  But gold made a comeback in the after hours trading.  I'm not sure what to make of todays action.  The US dollar opened higher but closed well off of the highs for the day.  The XAU was actually up 1/3 as the gold shares performed pretty good considering the drop in gold.  This is a positive for the gold shares.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on average volume.  I'm not exactly sure what to do with the gold shares here.  The are still medium term oversold and due for some type of rally.  The daily technicals are more overbought than oversold though.  I'll probably be looking elsewhere for the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes are overbought.  I'll will look to get some calls next week perhaps if there is a pullback.  The Dow transports have broken out and it is up to the industrials to follow.  I may get some GE January calls next week.  The only caveat is that the earnings are due on expiration Friday.  We'll see.  Gold is acting volatile to start the year.  I would still like to get long there at some point.  Perhaps I'll move out to the February option cycle there.  Plenty to consider over the weekend.  For now it's the first Friday of the new year and time for a break.

Digesting the recent gains today as the Dow fell 21 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  After moving straight up around 500 points, some consolidation is to be expected.  A larger pull back isn't expected for now.  But that doesn't mean it won't happen.  The Fed minutes released today implies the soft money policy might end sooner rather than later.  That would be a negative going forward.  However we are in a very positive time frame calendar wise.  My feeling is that we will stay with a positive bias into the January option expiration.  We'll see what happens with the employment report tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 on good volume.  GE is not acting well here and has been stopped at its declining tops line that began in October.  I am considering the January GE calls here though.  I could be wrong.  Gold had a tough day as the futures fell $14 and another $10 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar rallied.  The news of the Fed minutes pushed gold down and the dollar up.  The gold/dollar inverse relationship is back in place.  The XAU fell 6 1/3.  ABX down a buck, GG lost almost 2 and NEM slipped 1 1/4.  Volume was average.  My idea for the January ABX calls was wrong.  Of course things could turn around tomorrow with a weak employment report but I'm inclined to look elsewhere for the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the huge rally after the tax deal.  Now it will be important to see what happens from here.  The technicals imply higher prices after a breather.  I might wait things out for a few days and then try the OEX calls for January.  Or not.  We'll see what the employment report brings.  Gold was weak today and I expected more money to flow into there due to the beginning of the new year.  I'm laying off any trades there for now.  We'll look for the foreign market reaction to the Fed minutes if there is one and move on to Fridays employment report. 

We had a huge rally to begin 2013 as the Dow gained 308 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 positive.  The tax deal is done and it is off to the races.  The small stocks are leading the way higher here, so it appears that this move higher could have legs.  It is too late for any stock index calls right now in my opinion.  The buy signal was a couple of days ago but the market opened up strong on Monday which rose the value of the calls.  Perhaps the next trade will be getting short when we get short term overbought.  The employment report is due on Friday.  Some stock indices are breaking out into new highs and we had some huge upside gaps today.  Expect higher prices going forward.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Too late for the calls here as well in my opinion.  Gold moved higher today as well, gaining $13 on the futures.  The US dollar bounced around but ended the day little changed.  The XAU rose 2 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  The gold shares are getting short term overbought.  I still might try the January calls though.  Money is flowing into all assets at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We have seen the expected rally following the resolution of the tax stand off in Washington.  Were we go from here is what matters next.  It looks like we are going to go higher regardless of the economic numbers.  We'll see how the rest of the week plays out.  Gold has found some buyers this week as well.  I'm not sure how long that will last but I might be willing to try a short term trade there.  The January ABX calls are still on my radar.  We should see the rally continue overseas tonight and tomorrow here as well. 

It was quite a final day for 2012 as the Dow rallied 166 points on better volume than we have seen lately.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  The tax deal is finally coming together but it hasn't been finalized as of yet.  Investors are front running the expected beginning of the year positive money flows.  I did want to get some January OEX calls but the premiums were so inflated that I stepped aside there.  Today stops the down trend for now but the volatility has definitely picked up.  We should rally when the markets reopen on Wednesday.  What happens after that is the main question.  GE had a huge move, up 55 cents on good volume.  We should be able to build on that going forward as well.  Gold was up as well.  The precious metal futures rose almost $20.  The US dollar was little changed on the day again.  The XAU gained 5 points.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up at least a buck on average volume.  I did place an order during the day for some January ABX calls again but it wasn't filled.  I believe that money will make its way into the gold shares at the beginning of next year as well.  I may try the ABX calls again on Wednesday if we get some weakness early.  We'll see.  I haven't done too well with this trade lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are getting the expected pop in the stock indexes with the resolution to the tax situation.  The over the counter stocks are moving even better to the upside and that is a positive going forward.  The stock indices were also short term oversold, so a move higher is no surprise.  Gold had a decent day but we will have to see if there is any follow through to the upside.  Gold has been dead money for quite a while.  I do think that I will try the January ABX calls again though.  It's a holiday tomorrow and perhaps the tax deal will be done by the open on Wednesday.  Most foreign markets are closed tonight as well.  So we'll take a day off and keep an eye on the news out of Washington.  A Happy and Prosperous Trading New Year to all. 

Another down day for the Dow as we did not build on yesterdays comeback.  It was important for the bulls to have some follow through to the upside today and we didn't get it.  These are very thinly traded markets in a holiday week.  The Dow fell 158 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Still waiting on Washington to come up with a tax deal but it hasn't happened yet.  Might not happen before the end of the year deadline and not many expected that.  The stock indices are now short term oversold.  Any sign of a tax deal should spring some type of rally.  The OEX options are richly priced here though, with 3 weeks left in the January cycle.  GE fell 1/4 on light volume.  The 200 day moving average may provide some support at the $20.25 level.  Oversold short term here as well.  Gold fell $7 on the futures today as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The bollinger bands are converging on the daily charts for these gold stocks.  That usually implies a major move is about to occur.  Which way is the question.  I just might try the ABX January calls again if we get some decline next week.  The gold shares are getting short term oversold once again.  That hasn't led to any type of sustained rally for the past couple of months though.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indices are in decline due to the uncertainty coming out of Washington.  Headline risk remains firmly in place.  The trouble is that this dilemma could be solved overnight.  That will have quite an impact on the markets and trading.  The risk level in the game right now is very high.  However with risk there also comes reward.  It is something to think about over the weekend.  Gold continues to languish and still appears to be dead money.  I'm thinking that some money could flow into the gold shares early next year due to there low prices.  But as usual I could be wrong and I was wrong quite a lot this year, especially with the gold shares.  My trading account for 2012 ended the year with a loss of 11%.  I have already began to regroup for next year, which begins next week.  We will have to keep our eyes peeled for the news out of Washington over the weekend.  The stock indexes are still being held hostage by the politicians.  There is some support for the S&P 500 at the 1390 level, which is the 200 day moving average.  We are already oversold and a break of that could take us back to 1350 rather quickly.  But any announcement of a deal should rocket the indices back to the upside.  The game is never easy.  But for now it's the last Friday afternoon in December.  Time for a break.

Lower again today but the market did make quite a comeback as the Dow fell 18 points on light volume.  We were off around 140 points during the session.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Still waiting on a tax deal in Washington.  Todays candlestick chart for the Dow could be a bullish hammer but we will have to wait and see what transpires in the next couple of trading days.  Some kind of deal will get done sooner or later.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  Perhaps it's time to try the calls there.  I remain on the sidelines though.  Gold was up $3 on the futures and the US dollar rose slightly as well.  The XAU gained 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains or losses on OK volume.  Gold continues to look like dead money.  There is a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace right now and there is no flight to gold.  Perhaps that will change next year but for now gold remains an under performer.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Even though it is a holiday week, tomorrow could be important.  If we continue to rally it would be a positive sign on the charts.  If not, then we would probably be heading into an extended decline.  That is my best assessment at the moment.  There will be some kind of tax deal sooner or later.  The key I think will be how the market reacts after that.  Gold continues to disappoint on the upside but I am still looking at the gold share calls.  If we get a drop to the $1620 level on gold, that may take out the rest of sellers.  Just a guess as usual.  We'll monitor the news overnight and take it from there.

Holiday light trading is the theme as the Dow fell 24 points on half of a normal days volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  No Santa Claus rally so far this year with the troubles out of Washington.  The tax issue should be resolved within the next week.  We'll watch for the market reaction after that event.  Until then it is simply a wait and see environment.  I have no OEX trades in mind for now.  If we get short term oversold I may try the January calls.  GE was off just a touch again on very light volume.  Nothing doing there really.  A lot of companies are in a holding pattern.  Gold was up a buck and the US dollar fell just a bit.  The XAU gained 3/4.  ABX and GG were up 1/3, while NEM gained 7/8.  Volume was light.  The gold shares outperformed gold today.  However we are in such a lightly attended point in time, it's hard what to make of it.  Perhaps this is the start of the rally in the gold shares that I've been looking for.  But I have already tried and failed here so much that I probably will not try again here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just 3 trading days left this year.  The stock indexes are waiting on Washington.  We normally get a nice rally when the new year begins.  If we get a tax deal as well, it could be quite a bump up.  But that is just another guess.  Technically the stock indices are no longer short term overbought but they're not oversold yet either.  Gold is still trying to hang on at the 200 day moving average.  Expect more light volume trading tomorrow.

The markets closed early today in a holiday shortened session.  The Dow fell 51 points in a very thinly traded, light volume affair.  The advance/declines were negative.  It doesn't look like there will be any buyers until we get something positive out of Washington.  There will be some kind of tax deal sooner or later.  We'll watch for what the markets do after that for a better idea of where we're headed.  GE was off a touch on very light volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold and the US dollar were basically flat on the day.  The XAU was up 1/3.  ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM had a fractional loss.  The gold shares remain oversold.  I think we could see a decent rally there at any time.  However I have tried the gold share calls a few times lately and they simply have remained oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market remains hostage to the situation in Washington.  This will resolve itself eventually and probably pretty soon.  Until then the stock indices should be on hold or move lower.  Gold is trying to hold at its 200 day moving average.  We'll have tomorrow off and then back to it on Wednesday.  It should be a very light volume holiday week for the markets.

It's all about the headlines coming out of Washington at this point.  The Dow fell 120 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  No tax deal yet and the stock indices are now nervous.  I still think they will get something done by the new years deadline.  It is how the market reacts after that which is what you should be watching.  We're still overbought on the short term technicals.  GE was off a bit over 1/8 and the volume was very heavy again.  Getting oversold on a daily basis here but it's not all the way there yet.  I have no trades in mind here at the moment.  Gold bucked the trend and rose $14 on the futures even with a stronger US dollar.  An oversold bounce or the flight to safety?  I certainly don't know which it was.  The usual inverse relationship between the dollar and gold remains not to be in place.  It's been that way for a while and I don't know what to make of it.  The XAU was up 1/4 today.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM had a fractional gain.  The same results as yesterday.  Volume was very heavy.  I would like to try the calls on ABX again but it hasn't worked lately.  It is both short and medium term overbought.  That hasn't meant much lately though.  I'll ponder it over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Had some internet issues during the trading day and that is never a good thing.  Some of the stock indexes had gaps lower today and that isn't a positive sign for the bulls.  However in this headline driven atmosphere, and announcement of a tax deal could send us back to the upside in a hurry.  We'll find out in a matter of days.  It's a holiday week next week and that could skew things with the lack of volume.  Even with todays move higher, gold hasn't been acting well lately and we broke the support at $1680.  The gold shares are still oversold and have been for a while.  Yet there hasn't been any rally.  So we'll see.  I'll go over the charts this weekend and keep an eye out on the news from Washington.  For now it's a December evening and time for a break. 

The Dow gained 59 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  One minute there is a tax deal and the next minute there isn't.  That is the type of environment we are in for now.  Eventually a deal will get done.  The question is what happens after that?  We're still overbought on the stock indices.  That hasn't seemed to matter lately.  The summation index continues higher and the trend remains up until further notice.  GE was up 1/4 on better than average volume.  I'm not sure that I'm going to try anything with GE right here.  Gold fell again as we have broken through support earlier this week.  The precious metal futures fell another 20 bucks today.  This, despite the US dollar moving lower yet again.  The XAU is outperforming the metal here but that means that it is dropping less, relatively.  It fell 7/8 today but there is a potential hammer or morning star on the daily candlestick chart.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was actually up 1/3.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  Nobody wants gold at the moment.  Usually a good time to buy things is when nobody wants them.  But that is a longer term strategy.  For trading purposes gold broke support at $1680.  The next support is $1620 followed by around $1550.  The gold shares are oversold, remain oversold and have been a place to be short, not long.  As long as the relationship between the dollar and gold is inverse to what it should be, it probably isn't time to get long.  But my ideas and thinking haven't been working lately.  So consider that as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still at the mercy of headline risk in the stock market.  Money seems to be flowing into stocks regardless for now.  We've got the positive holiday bias coming up and the start of the new year as well.  Expiration Friday tomorrow and then we should be going into holiday mode for next week.  But we still have Washington and the tax deal to get through.  We'll see what happens tonight and what is announced before the weekend. 

A reversal of sorts today as the Dow fell 99 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  Headline risk is going to be the norm from now on until Washington sorts out the tax deal.  Today the news was negative and down we went.  The stock indices were short term overbought anyway, so some decline could be expected.  Some of the technicals, such as the trin, were and are very overbought.  Things can turn on a dime now as we head closer to the end of the year.  I'm still going to be looking for some type of Santa Claus rally next week.  GE fell 2/3 on very heavy volume.  This was a pretty big move for GE.  If GE is a harbinger of things to come, we could see a nasty decline in the overall market.  I would expect to see some support here at the $20 level if the fall continues.  Gold fell a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU was off 1 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm considering trading a basket of the gold shares, GDX, when I'm ready to try gold again.  Perhaps at the beginning of next year.  The gold shares remain oversold.  Mentally I'm doing OK, considering having to book yesterdays loss.  I should be done for this years trading with less than 2 weeks to go in 2012.  We are at the mercy of Washington even more so than usual until a tax deal is settled.  I do think some kind of agreement will be reached before the end of the year.  The market reaction will be key.  We will all have to be ready to trade off of that news when it happens.  Gold continues to languish as it is holding at the 200 day moving average.  A break of that level could take us down to $1620 in a hurry.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll keep our eyes and ears open for the next sound bite out of Washington.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 115 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The up move has legs.  Overbought and staying there.  The summation index is now moving higher.  Whatever negative chart patterns we had last week have been negated.  The transports have broken out above some longer term resistance and that bodes well for the near future.  Closer to a tax deal in Washington has been the excuse for the move up.  You can't fight price action one way or the other.  GE fell 1/4 on heavy volume, bucking the trend.  There was some specific news on GE today that was considered bearish.  GE finished well off of its lows though.  Gold got clobbered today as it fell over $25 on the futures and broke the support level of $1680.  The US dollar was lower as well.  This relationship between the dollar and gold has been going on for a while now.  They are moving lower together and that is the inverse of what is usually suspected.  It isn't bullish for gold.  The XAU held up rather well considering.  It dropped 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses again on average volume.  I dumped the January ABX calls that I had for an 80% loss.  This trade was never in the black and it was one of the bigger losers of the year.  I added to it on lower prices and that is usually always a recipe for disaster.  This trade will also increase my trading loss for the year.  I'll tally the final numbers there before the end of the year.  Gold continues to be dead money here.  Even worse it is losing value.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the loss.  The stock indices are in rally mode.  It is expiration week and the usual positive bias is evident.  Throw in some good news out of Washington and we are heading higher.  Gold had a horrible day and we are at the 50 day moving average.  The precious metal will need to stop its decline here or things could get ugly.  I still do like the gold shares.  They are oversold on a short and medium term basis.  However my biggest losses in the past year have been there so I will probably be steering clear of them for a while.  Money is leaving both gold and the US dollar lately.  The flight to safety play is off for now.  I probably won't be making any more trades this year.  There are only 3 days left on the December option cycle and next week is a holiday week.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

A positive start to option expiration week as the Dow gained 100 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should send the summation index higher.  No technical reason for the rally.  The tax problem in Washington looks like it is almost being solved.  Of course that could change tomorrow but some kind of deal will be reached.  We will see if todays action has some legs.  GE was up 1/3.  Short term overbought here.  Gold and the US dollar both didn't do much today.  The XAU was up 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Unless we get some type of rally in ABX, I will have to dump the January calls that I own at a loss.  That is the most likely outcome.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices continue higher and are getting short term overbought again.  We have a holiday week next week.  All of the major trading for the year will be done in the next 4 days.  Perhaps we will run things up into the expiration but that is just a guess.  Gold at around $1700 remains dead money and I don't see a catalyst in the near future.  We'll keep an eye on the action overseas and go from there.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 35 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is flattening out here.  The weekly S&P 500 candlestick chart now has a potential evening star as well.  So the rally from mid-November could be in jeopardy.  The daily technicals on the stock indices have rolled over.  I'm sticking with a best case scenario of sideways for the market at this juncture.  We do have option expiration week coming up and that usually has a positive bias.  But until we get some clarity from Washington on the tax picture, whatever gains we do see from here will be muted.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  No trades here for now.  Gold had a lackluster session even though the US dollar was lower once again.  The precious metal futures finished the day basically unchanged.  When gold cannot rally despite dollar weakness, it isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I certainly don't know why gold just can't catch a bid here with a bullish dollar backdrop.  The XAU was up a point today.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My ABX January calls continue to languish in a losing position.  If I don't see some upwards movement in ABX next week, I'm going to have to dump them for another loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The over the counter stocks have been weaker in the past couple of days and that usually isn't a good sign moving forward.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk out of Washington.  The question is once we're done with that, then what?  We'll follow the technicals and let that guide us.  Gold continues to disappoint and it looks like there is no rally forthcoming.  It has all the signs at the moment of dead money.  When whatever you're trading can't rally on good news and bullish developments, then that trade is in trouble.  Of course things can turn on a dime sometimes but that is the exception to the rule.  I'll need to cut this ABX call trade loose next week most likely.  It's a Friday afternoon in December and time for a rest.

We lost some ground today as the Dow fell 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The overbought condition of the stock indices needs to be worked off and this is the beginning.  Whether or not it turns into a full on rout has yet to be determined.  I don't think that it will but what do I know?  The daily candlestick chart on the S&P 500 now looks bearish with the pattern of a white candle, followed by an evening star and a black candle.  So I think that near term we will probably be in a down to sideways pattern.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Still above the 50 day moving average here.  Gold fell $20 today on the futures as there was no follow through to the Feds action yesterday.  That isn't bullish.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU reversed yesterdays positive action and was down 4 1/8.  ABX off 3/4, GG and NEM fell 1 1/4.  Volume was light to average.  My ABX January calls remain mired in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still plenty of talk out of Washington and no action.  We remain hostage to that situation but eventually it will clear.  Headline risk is still in place.  6 days to go in the December option cycle.  Gold continues to simply be dead money.  I thought after yesterday that perhaps we would get a multi-day rally but it was not to be.  I'm going to have to consider when to take the loss there unless there is a dramatic turn of events to the upside in gold.  We'll see what tomorrow brings to end up the week.   

A one day reversal to the downside for the Dow as we opened higher and closed lower on the Fed announcement.  The Dow lost 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices actually rallied after the Fed but then gave back all of the gains on the day.  The daily candlestick chart for the Dow now looks like an evening star, implying lower prices ahead.  That would not be out of the question since we are still very overbought both short and medium term now on the stock indexes.  I don't think it would be the beginning of a major decline but some backing and filling perhaps.  I could be wrong.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  We just got above the 50 day moving average here on the daily chart.  Gold managed to gain $8 on the futures but sold off a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower again.  I would have expected gold to rally today off of the Fed but we didn't see much.  Gold also hasn't rallied with the weaker US dollar lately either.  These are not bullish signs for gold.  I do not know the cause.  The XAU managed a nice gain of 4 1/4 today though.  ABX and GG both gained over a buck, while NEM rose just 1/4.  Volume was average.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a rally in the gold shares for a change.  Or not.  We'll have to see how the week closes out.  My January ABX calls gained some ground but that trade is still a loser for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the Fed out of the way and now we move on to what's next for the stock market.  We still have to deal with the tax issue from Washington, most likely before the end of the year.  I would be looking for near term weakness for the stock indices and then we'll see where we go from there.  We'll see how the foreign markets react to what Big Ben had to say today.   

Overbought yet continuing higher as the Dow gained 78 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow and we'll see what happens with that.  Obviously the trend remains up.  We just got through the 50 day moving average on the major stock indices.  That's a positive moving forward.  Perhaps we are beginning the Santa Claus rally.  Of course, that could all change tomorrow.  GE was up 1/8 on good volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold was lower by about 5 bucks on the futures despite a weaker US dollar.  Gold and the dollar have not had their usual relationship lately and that is troublesome going forward.  The XAU lost 1/2 today.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  Gold will probably move off of the Fed announcement tomorrow.  That should give us the near term direction for the precious metal.  We'll have to see how the gold shares react.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes continue higher as the rally lives on.  Overbought, staying there and that is a condition that lasts in bull moves.  Gold seems to be dead money at the moment.  Unless we see some kind of move following the Fed, that could be the case for a while.  If gold can't rally on a weaker US dollar then something is wrong somewhere.  My January ABX calls remain losers.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

Still a meandering market as the Dow gained 14 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Waiting for some kind of catalyst one way or the other.  The Fed meets this week and maybe they can get things going.  However the market seems to be on hold until Washington figures out the tax situation.  This could go on until the end of the month.  Technically the stock indices are short term overbought.  The summation index does continue higher.  GE lost a few cents on the trading day and the volume was very light.  Getting to the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU rose a couple points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Perhaps we'll see something out of the Fed to get gold moving to the upside.  The technicals for the gold shares are short term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not the most dynamic trading environment with just less than 2 weeks to go in the December option cycle.  However the rally that started in mid-November remains intact.  Gold is perhaps putting in a short term double bottom here but we will need to see the volume pick up to the upside for this to be true.  I'm still holding my January ABX calls at a loss.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.

The employment report was better than expected and the Dow rose 81 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  It was a mixed market once again as the NASDAQ finished the session lower.  The Dow has been leading things here and that usually isn't a bullish sign.  We started the morning off higher and then just drifted for the rest of the day.  I really don't see any conviction to this rise in prices recently.  But you can't argue with price and we are moving higher.  The summation index remains positive as well.  GE was up a nickel on very light volume.  Still below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up 3 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU was up 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm still holding the January ABX calls at a loss for now.  However I've been waiting for some type of rally in the gold shares and it hasn't happened.  Oversold on the gold shares and they are simply moving sideways or lower.  I will have to see some type of positive action next week or I will take the loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The employment report came and went.  It wasn't really a market mover.  The bigger cap stocks are in the lead here and more often than not that precedes a decline in the overall stock indexes.  Not always but the odds lean that way from my experience.  So I would be careful on the long side here.  Gold isn't really doing anything and that isn't helping my case with the January ABX calls.  6 weeks left in that trade but it isn't looking like it will be a winner.  There's really only a couple of weeks left of regular trading before the holidays take effect.  It looks like I am going to have to dump that trade as the final loser of the year.  The weekend is here and it's time for a break.     

Drifting higher before the employment report as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We closed almost at the high for the day and that is sometimes bullish going forward.  The summation index continues higher as well.  We'll see what happens tomorrow but the market has the feel of wanting to move higher.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Still below the 50 day moving average here but the chart is looking constructive right now.  Of course that could all change tomorrow.  Gold was up around $8 on the futures despite a good gain in the US dollar.  This relationship hasn't been correlating as usual lately.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were little changed either way on light volume.  We'll see if we get some kind of move in gold tomorrow off of the employment report.  But like I have mentioned earlier, gold at the moment could just be dead money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll see what the reaction is to the employment numbers and go from there.  Still overbought short term on the stock indexes but that condition could last for a while if we are in rally mode.  Tomorrow will go a long way in determining that.  My January ABX calls are way in the red and a decision on dumping them could come tomorrow.  Looks like just another loser at this point.  On to tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 82 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall market did not fare as well.  The S&P 500 only gained 2 points and the NASDAQ was negative.  Still waiting on Fridays jobs numbers.  The summation index continues higher but the S&P 500 is stalling at the 50 day moving average.  We should get a clear direction of things are Friday.  Hopefully at least.  GE rallied today, up 1/3 on average volume.  I still have no trading ideas here.  Gold finished the day just about flat on the futures as the US dollar had a bit of a rise.  The XAU got clobbered, down 6 1/2.  Most of this was due to FCX.  But the gold shares reversed as well.  ABX off 3/4, GG and NEM down 1 1/8.  Volume was average.  No love for the gold shares here and it looks like I will have to abandon the January ABX call trade.  It is an over 50% loser at the moment.  Unless there is a reversal on the gold shares after the employment report, I'll probably exit this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The over the counter market was weak and that is not a positive going forward.  The short term technicals remain in the overbought zone for the stock indices.  The gold shares look as though they are breaking down after todays price action.  That will not help any gold share call trades and it looks like I'll have to add another loser to the 2012 trading ledger.  I'll give this trade until Friday but I'll need to see some type of reversal to stick around.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

Another day of going nowhere as the Dow lost 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Not much else to say about today as we wait for the employment report on Friday.  It is curious that the US dollar has been heading lower here and we cannot get some type of stock market rally.  The summation index continues higher though.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  No trades there for now.  Gold was lower again today despite the weaker US dollar.  This is not the usual relationship.  The precious metal futures were off $25.  The XAU however was actually up 1/8.  ABX and GG showed fractional gains, while NEM had a fractional loss.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  Perhaps we are at the beginning of the gold shares starting to outperform the metal itself.  But one day doesn't make a trend and it is probably just wishful thinking on my part.  I still own the January ABX calls at a loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure where the stock indices head from here but the technicals still remain overbought short term.  We are probably being held hostage by the waiting game for Friday.  We are also at the mercy of the headline risk out of Washington.  But that could move things either way.  So we stay tuned and keep a close watch on things.  Gold hasn't been acting well with the weaker US dollar and that is a problem going forward.  We will need to see gold hold the $1680 level or things will most likely head south rather quickly.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A weak beginning to December as the Dow fell 60 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are due for some downside to work off the overbought condition of the stock indices.  The question is if it turns into a retest of the November lows.  The summation index continues to the upside and that is a positive.  All eyes will be on the employment numbers Friday but that may not be as reliable as usual due to the big east coast storm last month.  GE was off 1/3 on light volume.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market as it usually is, then we will be heading lower this week.  If todays action is any indication.  Gold was up 7 bucks, which wasn't much considering the drop in the US dollar.  The XAU followed the overall market lower, down 3 1/3.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1 1/4 and NEM dropped 1 3/8.  Volume was relatively better in the gold shares and that is a negative.  When the US dollar is lower and the gold shares can't rally off of that, then we are most likely heading lower.  My January ABX calls are still in the red and losing more money.  Perhaps it is time to say goodbye to this trade but I will give it until the end of the week.  The gold shares would have to turn around soon to keep this trade viable.  Because at this point they look like dead money.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've started the week lower for the stock indexes.  No beginning of the month money flows today.  Could be an interesting week.  Gold isn't looking so good after todays non action.  Could be that I will have to book the loss in the January ABX call trade and move on.  We'll see.  It hasn't been a good trading year for me and this trade would simply add to that fact.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and take it from there.

Another choppy session as we were negative for most of the day.  The Dow managed a gain of 3 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We basically ended the month in a holding pattern.  The summation index continues higher but we remain overbought in the stock indices.  We've had an OK rise since the lows of November but I don't see any big moves one way or the other coming up.  But what do I know?  The market as always will go where it wants.  I think we need to see some kind of decline before we can move higher.  GE was flat on the day with average volume.  The short term up trend line remains intact here.  Gold fell again today, off $16 on the futures.  The US dollar finished trading unchanged.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was flat on the day.  Volume was light.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  I'll need to see some positive price movement from ABX in the beginning of December or this will be another loser.  Oversold on a weekly basis for ABX.  The daily technicals are about mid range.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are on to December.  The so called fiscal cliff is all over the media but it is just talk.  We need to listen to the markets.  Overbought right now but we could stay that way if this rally is for real.  The jury is still out on that.  We should see some positive beginning of the month money flows for stocks.  Gold had a negative week and we will need to see it turn around next week to negate the bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart.  That is something to keep an eye on.  Plenty of economic data out next week topped off by the Friday employment report.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A choppy session today as the Dow finished the day with a gain of 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought both short and medium term on some of the technicals for the stock indices.  The over the counter stocks are outperforming at the moment and that usually means higher prices going forward.  However we need to work off some of the overbought condition before going higher in my opinion.  I do not think that this will be a straight line up, it rarely is.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trades in GE for now.  The gold futures rose $10 today as the US dollar was slightly weaker.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on very light volume.  Not much action in the gold shares today as we are just trying to close out the month here.  My January ABX calls remain in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  November will close out with the trading tomorrow.  A lot of price movement during the month but not much progress either way for the stock indexes.  We'll have to wait and see what happens in December.  Gold is going to end the month with very little progress as well.  The gold shares however, were well off of their best levels for the month.  This relationship needs to change if the January ABX call trade is going to turn a profit.       

It was a one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 107 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I was expecting a bit more weakness than what we have seen.  But I could be wrong and often am.  We should move off of the GDP report tomorrow.  End of the month coming on Friday.  The technicals for the stock indices are heading to overbought.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  We got the same type of intra day reversal here as well.  We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow.  Gold took a hit today.  The futures were off over $25.  The US dollar closed a bit lower after being higher early on.  The XAU followed the overall stock market higher by 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  One day doesn't make a trend but it was nice to see from the bullish angle that the gold shares outperformed the precious metal for a change.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A bullish reversal for the stock indexes today.  We'll see if it can carry over for tomorrow.  I don't think that we have seen the end of the near term weakness yet though.  We'll see.  Not a good day for gold but I am still in the bullish camp here going forward.  Perhaps it will turn around tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  However the technicals for gold have turned down on the daily chart.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and wait for the GDP revision tomorrow morning. 

Heading lower today and that isn't unexpected as the Dow fell 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We are working off the short term overbought condition of the stock indexes.  I would guess that the recently made lows would hold any decline but that is just a guess.  The summation index is still moving in a positive direction.  I feel as though we are simply taking a rest here but I do not expect any huge rally anytime soon either.  GE was off almost a 1/4 on lighter volume.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar posted gains today.  The XAU dropped 3 3/4.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1 7/8 and NEM shed 1/3.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  The ABX January calls that I own continue to lose value.  Plenty of time for this trade to work out and I will hold these options at least into December.  However I would like to see the price direction turn around at some point this week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple of down days to start the week and I would not be surprised if the weakness continued just a bit more.  We could be moving into a sideways trading range but only time will tell on that.  Gold fell a bit today but we are still above the rising trend line that began at the beginning of the month.  I would prefer to see the gold stocks taking the lead here but it hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We are expecting some weakness near term and we got some today as the Dow fell 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It was a mixed bag though because the NASDAQ actually closed higher on the day.  We were off over 100 points on the Dow during the session.  The summation index is now headed higher.  I still think we will get some more downside at some point this week.  After that, who knows?  Not a lot of data out this week but we will get the 1st revision to the 3rd quarter GDP report.  GE was flat on the day but the volume was pretty good.  We held the 200 day moving average here and that's a positive.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost a couple of bucks.  The XAU sold off early but only lost 1/3 on the day.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1/3 on light volume.  The gold shares are following the overall market at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'd expect the stock indices to take a rest this week but I could be wrong.  The rally last week was on light volume and that is not a positive going forward.  We do have the end of the month coming up on Friday.  Gold is probably due for some backing and filling as well.  I would like to see the gold shares take the lead here but it hasn't happened yet.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.   

It was a very interesting half session today as the Dow roared ahead by 172 points.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was extremely light.  Not your typical holiday half session plodding along.  It was however, a very light volume levitation all week.  Not to be trusted in my opinion.  I would not be surprised by some type of pull back early next week.  I would expect it.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume wasn't too bad.  Perhaps that bodes well for the overall market here.  That's a guess as usual.  No trades in GE for now.  Gold had a decent day as well on a weaker US dollar.  Perhaps there will be some good news out of Europe soon.  That could be what the dollar is signaling.  At any rate, the precious metal futures were up over $20.  The gold shares lagged again though as the XAU only gained 3 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on very light volume.  My January ABX calls are still in the red but by not as much.  I'll be holding on to this position at least into next month barring a catastrophe.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A nice upside week for the stock indices but the volume was anemic.  It's hard to trust light volume rallies.  But who knows?  Maybe this is the beginning of something sustained for the bulls.  I think the jury is still out though.  I'm not looking for a good year for the overall stock market next year but I'm wrong as much or more than I'm right lately.  Gold has started to move higher, perhaps back to the resistance at $1800.  I need to see the gold shares take the lead here though, for the ABX trade to work out.  Plenty of time for that trade but there is the possibility that we'll see plenty of end of the year tax loss selling there.  Just a guess as usual.  It's a holiday weekend as time to put the markets aside for a while.  We'll get back to it Monday morning. 

A drift higher as the Dow gained 48 points on holiday light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index should now be moving higher.  Not much to make of todays action.  You have to simply sit tight and wait for next week for the markets direction.  We are getting short term overbought on some technical indicators but not all.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  It is again the same wait around type of action.  We'll see more of the same on Friday.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures as the US dollar didn't do much today.  The XAU gained 2 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1/2 and the volume was light.  The gold shares did better than the metal today but you can't read much into that during a week like this.  My ABX January calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is looking like a positive week for the stock indices but the volume is light.  So I would expect some negative action perhaps sometime early next week.  I'm not saying that we are going to fall apart or anything like that but we are not going to go up in a straight line.  Gold has held up OK this week but I'd like to see another run at $1800 soon.  I'll be holding on to the ABX January calls into December and then we'll see where things go from there.  Enjoy the holiday. 

A day to digest yesterdays gains as the Dow lost 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The market sold off during the session when big Ben Bernanke spoke.  Hard to get a good grip on what is going on this week since it is a holiday week and lightly traded.  You really just have to hang around until all the players return next week.  GE was flat on the day with the same light volume.  Gold dropped a bit, off $10 on the futures despite a flat US dollar.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were little changed or off just a touch.  Volume was light.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just 2 trading days left in the week and we'll close early for Fridays trade.  It is a time to simply sit tight.  The time premium will decay for the options.  I don't expect a lot of movement in the stock indices until next week barring some type of unexpected event.  It is a time to relax, go over the charts and your trading ideas.  Preparation for next week would be the prudent course of action for now.

Today we saw the bounce that we were waiting for as the Dow climbed 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 8 to 1 positive.  The reasons could be anywhere from the "fiscal cliff" positive thoughts or the European mess suddenly sorting itself out.  Doesn't matter.  We were technically in an area that should of seen a bounce earlier than this, so it was bound to show up sooner or later.  Where we go from here is what matters.  Today had everything but the volume but it is a holiday week.  We'll see if we can build on this for the rest of this week.  GE had a gap to the upside and gained 1/2 on the day.  Volume was average.  The 200 day moving average held for GE, unlike the major averages.  Does that mean anything?  Perhaps.  Maybe GE will show better relative strength moving forward.  Gold had a decent day as the US dollar was weaker for a change.  The precious metal futures rose almost $20.  The XAU gained 4 7/8.  ABX up 1/2, GG added 1 1/8 and NEM higher by 2/3.  Volume was light.  I would have liked to see ABX move better with such a good day in the markets but was not to be.  My ABX January calls are still in the red.  I'm willing to give this trade some time to work as we are still oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a rally so we will have to see how the rest of the shortened week plays out.  The volume was light and we don't trust light volume rallies.  So we'll see.  Gold continues to outperform the gold shares and that isn't a positive going forward.  I will say though that if ABX can hold up here in the next couple of weeks, there is a chance that this trade will work itself out.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what goes on overnight and take it from there. 

The market is trying to hold in here but the rally attempt has been weak so far.  The Dow rose 45 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  Those numbers will move the McClellan oscillator from the deeply oversold condition but the accompanying price movement was tepid.  We have a holiday week coming up and there is really no reason to buy stocks.  I would like to see more of a decent snap back before I believe the decline is over.  Hasn't happened yet.  The technicals remain oversold.  GE didn't do much again on average volume.  Hovering around the 200 day moving average here.  Gold didn't do much today but the US dollar closed up for the day after being much higher during the session.  The XAU gained 1 1/3.  ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG had a fractional loss.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My ABX January calls are underwater.  It looks as though I have bought these calls too early.  Plenty of time for this trade to work but it already has the feel of a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that the stock indices went lower into the expiration today before bouncing back a little.  That was a possible scenario discussed earlier.  Where we go from here it what matters now.  The December options have an extra week on them.  We're still oversold on the technicals and still haven't seen a good rebound.  That is a problem going forward.  Gold has held up pretty good here but the gold shares have gotten pummeled.  This relationship has to change if the ABX call trade is going to work for me.  The fact that we have a lot of recent Mideast turmoil and the price of gold hasn't rallied is troublesome for the bullish cause.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend and the charts must be checked as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The general malaise continues as the Dow fell 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Very oversold on all levels here and I would expect a snap back tomorrow or Monday.  I doubt it will be anything sustainable but at least we'll take a rest from the drop.  If that doesn't happen we may actually simply collapse but I do not think that will occur.  However we have to be aware that it could.  The market as always goes where it wants.  The McClellan oscillator is deeply oversold and it doesn't stay that way for long.  So we'll look for some type of rally attempt and go from there.  GE was up a nickel as it tries to hold on at it's 200 day moving average.  Volume was good.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell today as the futures lost $16.  The US dollar continues to meander, with not much price action.  The XAU dropped another 4 1/8.  ABX fell 2/3, GG off 1 1/3 and NEM lost 1/4.  Volume was good on the gold shares.  I bought some more of the January ABX calls and averaged down my original cost.  This is something that usually doesn't work.  However I am a believer that this trade will work out.  I could be wrong and have been wrong a lot this year.  The charts for ABX look ugly to the downside.  It very well could be the falling knife syndrome.  But when nobody else wants something it is sometimes the right time to buy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times in the marketplace right now.  The stock indices have broken down.  There can be no denying that.  We are due for a bounce and it should come soon.  I would not be a buyer of stocks for the longer term until sometime next year.  Gold has held up rather well so far during this decline but the gold shares have not.  However there is a lot of tension in the Middle East at the moment and gold hasn't rallied.  That could be a problem for the gold bulls going forward.  We'll see.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.   

Oversold and staying there is never a good combination for the bulls.  The Dow is now in the fall apart mode as we lost 185 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  No positive expiration week bias this month.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator has broken down from the -150 level.  We will now probably see a washout decline and then a snap back rally.  Within the next 3 days or so, if I had to guess.  The S&P 500 couldn't hold the 200 day moving average and followed the over the counter stocks through that level.  The game has changed and did so about a month ago.  GE fell 2/3 on heavy volume.  We've reached the 200 day moving average here.  Probably won't hold here as well.  It obviously isn't a time to own stocks and probably won't be for a while.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and fell back a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The US dollar again had very little change on the day.  The XAU followed the overall market lower and dropped 8 1/4 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost over a dollar and change on good volume.  The gold shares continue to under perform gold itself.  My open order for the January ABX calls was filled.  It is already a loser by about 20%.  Plenty of time for this trade to work itself out.  However if the overall liquidation mode continues, the gold shares will continue to fall as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much lower can we go here?  Probably lower than most think at the moment.  We may just run down into the expiration on Friday.  Rallies will most likely be sold into from now on.  Any compelling reasons to own stocks here?  The psychology of the market has changed.  Gold still is holding up rather well.  The Gold/XAU ratio is clearly in the buy zone for the gold stocks.  But we saw this before earlier this year and it did not work.  I was looking at IAG for a possible candidate for the January calls as well.  It missed on earnings last night and was clobbered today, off 20% in just one session.  Perhaps my idea on the gold shares is off the mark here as well.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

We opened lower, climbed out of that hole to be positive most of the day, only to roll back down in the final hour.  The Dow fell 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Oversold, staying there and that is not a good sign.  The summation index continues lower.  We closed below the important line in the sand level of 1380 on the S&P 500.  So I would have to say that we need to watch out here for a big decline.  Perhaps things can turn around tomorrow but it doesn't feel like it.  Caution would be the word that best describes the current stock market environment.  GE lost almost 1/4 on average volume.  Here too we are breaking to new lows for the move.  It looks like we are heading to the 200 day moving average at around $20.  The gold futures fell 6 bucks today as the US dollar again didn't do much of anything.  The XAU fell 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell at least 1/2 or more on light volume.  These issues have the same I'm going lower feel to them as the overall market.  I'm still leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Could be another mistake but I will check it out again tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices tried again to rally today and failed.  That is troublesome.  The smaller stocks have already broken down below their 200 day moving averages and perhaps now the larger caps will follow.  Tomorrow could get interesting.  Gold has held up rather well lately but the gold shares have lagged.  Sometimes when nobody wants something, it's the time to step up to the plate.  The gold shares are oversold technically.  I'm willing to take the chance here but I may be early.  We'll see.  I'll keep an eye on developments overnight and go from there.   

A semi-holiday today as the banks and bond markets were closed for Veterans Day.  The Dow drifted all session and finished the day basically unchanged on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Still trying to hold or bounce from the important 1380 level on the S&P 500.  Where we move from here will be worth watching.  Still oversold on the short term technicals for the stock indexes.  GE fell 1/8 on the same very light volume.  No trades there for now.  The gold futures were flat on the day and off a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar didn't do much today either.  The XAU however fell 2 3/8 as it is now under performing the precious metal itself.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on very light volume.  I'm leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Not sure if it will get filled at the price that I'm willing to pay.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week and all the players should return tomorrow.  The Dow transports rallied today and perhaps the overall market will follow tomorrow.  Summation index still heading lower though.  It's anybodies guess as to what happens this week.  We'll watch the overseas markets tonight and go from there. 

The market tried to rally today but when it was all said and done the Dow only managed a gain of 4 points.  Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator is trying to hold in at the -150 level, which has been the stopping point in momentum since June.  The stock indices remain oversold on a daily technical basis.  Expiration week is coming up.  It remains to be seen if the usual positive bias will be in effect this time around.  I'd simply be guessing if told you where we are heading next for the S&P 500.  We are right at the 200 day moving average and this is where the battle will be to stop the decline.  It has held so far.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  No trade there for now.  Gold gained $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was off 2 1/2 though.  ABX down 3/8, GG and NEM dropped 3/4.  Volume was light.  I've left in the open order for the ABX January calls for now.  I may switch to IAG.  The technicals for gold itself are short term overbought now, while the gold share technicals are mid-range.  I'll have to ponder this idea once again over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the US election out of the way but the market not only didn't care, it sold off.  Probably because the outcome only guarantees more of the same political infighting that has gone on since the beginning of politics.  The stock indexes are technically oversold and staying there.  That is not bullish.  Perhaps expiration week can start to turn things around but I don't know.  Gold caught a bid this week and that has stopped the month long decline.  Whether or not this is the beginning of another attempt to the $1800 level remains to be seen.  The gold shares lagged this week.  With only 5 days to go in the November option cycle, I won't be trying any trades on that short of a duration.  The December options have an extra weeks time on them but one of the week there is a holiday week.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and make some sense of things.  Friday afternoon is here and it is time to start to enjoy the weekend. 

What a time to take a couple of days off, which I rarely do but was already committed to.  A brief recap of the 2 days I missed posting the blog.  Tuesday saw a 133 point rally in the Dow as the election uncertainty was going to finally pass.  The gold futures rallied as well, over $30.  The XAU didn't rally as much though.  Wednesday saw a nasty sell-off for stocks as the Dow fell 312 points.  Gold was flat on the day and the XAU rallied slightly again.  Which brings us to today.  The Dow followed through to the downside and that isn't good sign if you're bullish.  The Dow dropped another 121 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average.  I would expect some attempt to stabilize here but who knows?  We are in a liquidation mode for whatever reason.  We will have to see how long this lasts.  The McClellan oscillator still has more room to the downside before we get to the snap back stage.  So it is time to keep an eye on things for sure.  GE dropped 1/4 on average volume and broke to new recent lows.  The 50 week moving average comes in at just below $20.  Not trades here for now.  The gold futures had another good day in the flight to safety.  They rose $12 as the dollar had slight gains as well.  The XAU only moved up 1 1/4.  ABX and GG up 1/4, while NEM was flat.  Volume was average here.  Before I took off for a couple of days, I did place an order for some ABX January calls.  It wasn't filled.  The major gold shares are not moving as much here as I would expect.  Perhaps the recent earnings reports have kept traders away.  I may move over to a second tier gold producer such as IAG.  At least the percentage moves here lately have been better.  I have left the ABX January call trade open though, to see if it will get filled.  I'm still considering if this is a viable idea considering we've had a decent move in gold for the past few days and the major gold shares haven't participated.  Mentally I'm pretty tired, haven't slept well for a couple of days.  The stock indices have the look and feel as if they are simply breaking down here.  I'm not sure how long this will last but I don't think that it is done just yet.  7 days to go in the November option cycle so perhaps we will drop into that.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold has moved up this week but the gold shares haven't followed as much as they should.  No hurry to trade there either I suppose.  We'll keep and eye on how the foreign markets react to todays drop and go from there.

A bit higher on Monday as the Dow gained 19 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  It's a waiting game on the election at this point.  Perhaps we'll see a rally when that unknown has passed.  The technicals are still more oversold than overbought on the stock indices.  At this juncture, things could go either way.  If I had any real conviction, I'd try something here but I don't.  GE was up 1/8 after opening lower.  Volume was light.  The technicals appear to be turning up here.  Gold bounced back a little, up $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU fell over a point though.  No love for the gold shares.  ABX off 1/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM shed 1/3.  Volume looks to be about average for the gold shares.  I'm still considering the gold share calls for January.  It may take a while to build a base though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is simply a time of wait and see for the stock indexes here.  Wednesday will be an interesting session.  Regardless of who wins the election the markets will move on.  Nobody wants the gold shares here.  That should tell us something.  It's usually the time to buy unless we simply continue the recent free fall.  Obviously I have no conviction one way or the other there.  That said, I'll be trying the gold share calls again at some point.  I'll be away from my desk for the next few days due to a previous commitment.  I may or may not be able to post remotely.  Tomorrow should be slow again and then we will key off of the markets reaction to the election results.  I'm expecting Obama to win and we'll see how much of that is factored into prices already.  However I could be wrong and have been a lot this year.

Friday was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 139 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index started heading lower again.  We will really need to see things turn around rather quickly or we could be heading towards new recent lows for the stock indices.  The technicals remain oversold and that will be a problem if we don't start a rally here.  We got a bounce but there was no follow through.  The employment report was a bit better than expected but it didn't mean much to stocks.  Next week should be very interesting.  GE was flat after opening higher and the volume was a little better than average.  No trades here for now.  Gold got pounded lower on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost $40, which was the biggest one day loss in quite a while.  The XAU fell 8 1/8.  ABX off 1 1/3, GG dropped 2 1/4 and NEM led the way down by 4 1/2.  Volume was heavy in the gold shares as traders headed for the exits in a hurry.  I think the prevailing wisdom here is that the US dollar is starting a longer term rally here and the commodity complex is going to head lower.  That's my guess as to what occurred on Friday.  Whether or not that is true only time will tell.  Of course I'm still reeling from the ABX November call trade but I'm  willing to take a look at the gold share calls again for January.  However the drop at the moment is so steep that I will have to reassess this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes need to hold on here or it could get ugly.  Still oversold and we should have had more upside than the bounce on Thursday.  Perhaps we will get some rally this week but the market will go where it wants.  Gold is in a down trend.  There is a bit of support where we are right now but much more at $1625.  The charts of the gold shares look ugly to the downside.  I'll be away from my desk starting on Tuesday.  I may or may not be able to provide the daily market updates until Thursday or Friday.  I might be able to post remotely but we'll see.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.  

The expected upside showed up today as the Dow gained 136 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Perhaps the market knows something about tomorrows employment report.  Or not.  Technically we needed a bounce and we got it.  We'll have to wait and see if it is the start of something more.  GE gained 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps we are trying to put in a base here as well.  No trades there for now.  Gold lost a few bucks as the dollar didn't do much again today.  The XAU fell 1 1/8.  ABX was the story of the day as it got clobbered on a poor earnings report.  ABX down 3 7/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM fell 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy on ABX, about average for the others.  My ABX November calls were a complete 100% loss.  ABX gapped down at the open and blew past my stop loss order.  I never seem to do well with the short term trades and this was no exception.  I wasn't expecting anything like this but the market as usual will go where it wants.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to see if we get any follow through to todays rally in the overall market tomorrow.  If so, we could be at the beginning of some type of rally here.  If not, it will be more of the same sideways activity pre-election.  So we'll see.  Gold seems to be in the same stand by mode.  I'm not sure if I'll try the gold share calls again.  I'll have to try and regroup from todays debacle.  I might go with the GDX for the next gold trade as the single stock risk would be less.  Trading a basket of the gold shares vs. a single company in theory has less risk.  We'll see.  Perhaps I simply expected ABX to have the same upside movement that GG had on its earnings release.  We'll get the employment number tomorrow and go from there.