Friday, December 28, 2012
Another down day for the Dow as we did not build on yesterdays comeback. It was important for the bulls to have some follow through to the upside today and we didn't get it. These are very thinly traded markets in a holiday week. The Dow fell 158 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Still waiting on Washington to come up with a tax deal but it hasn't happened yet. Might not happen before the end of the year deadline and not many expected that. The stock indices are now short term oversold. Any sign of a tax deal should spring some type of rally. The OEX options are richly priced here though, with 3 weeks left in the January cycle. GE fell 1/4 on light volume. The 200 day moving average may provide some support at the $20.25 level. Oversold short term here as well. Gold fell $7 on the futures today as the US dollar was little changed. The XAU dropped 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The bollinger bands are converging on the daily charts for these gold stocks. That usually implies a major move is about to occur. Which way is the question. I just might try the ABX January calls again if we get some decline next week. The gold shares are getting short term oversold once again. That hasn't led to any type of sustained rally for the past couple of months though. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. The stock indices are in decline due to the uncertainty coming out of Washington. Headline risk remains firmly in place. The trouble is that this dilemma could be solved overnight. That will have quite an impact on the markets and trading. The risk level in the game right now is very high. However with risk there also comes reward. It is something to think about over the weekend. Gold continues to languish and still appears to be dead money. I'm thinking that some money could flow into the gold shares early next year due to there low prices. But as usual I could be wrong and I was wrong quite a lot this year, especially with the gold shares. My trading account for 2012 ended the year with a loss of 11%. I have already began to regroup for next year, which begins next week. We will have to keep our eyes peeled for the news out of Washington over the weekend. The stock indexes are still being held hostage by the politicians. There is some support for the S&P 500 at the 1390 level, which is the 200 day moving average. We are already oversold and a break of that could take us back to 1350 rather quickly. But any announcement of a deal should rocket the indices back to the upside. The game is never easy. But for now it's the last Friday afternoon in December. Time for a break.
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