Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Holiday light trading is the theme as the Dow fell 24 points on half of a normal days volume. The advance/declines were negative. No Santa Claus rally so far this year with the troubles out of Washington. The tax issue should be resolved within the next week. We'll watch for the market reaction after that event. Until then it is simply a wait and see environment. I have no OEX trades in mind for now. If we get short term oversold I may try the January calls. GE was off just a touch again on very light volume. Nothing doing there really. A lot of companies are in a holding pattern. Gold was up a buck and the US dollar fell just a bit. The XAU gained 3/4. ABX and GG were up 1/3, while NEM gained 7/8. Volume was light. The gold shares outperformed gold today. However we are in such a lightly attended point in time, it's hard what to make of it. Perhaps this is the start of the rally in the gold shares that I've been looking for. But I have already tried and failed here so much that I probably will not try again here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Just 3 trading days left this year. The stock indexes are waiting on Washington. We normally get a nice rally when the new year begins. If we get a tax deal as well, it could be quite a bump up. But that is just another guess. Technically the stock indices are no longer short term overbought but they're not oversold yet either. Gold is still trying to hang on at the 200 day moving average. Expect more light volume trading tomorrow.
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