Wednesday, December 19, 2012
A reversal of sorts today as the Dow fell 99 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. Headline risk is going to be the norm from now on until Washington sorts out the tax deal. Today the news was negative and down we went. The stock indices were short term overbought anyway, so some decline could be expected. Some of the technicals, such as the trin, were and are very overbought. Things can turn on a dime now as we head closer to the end of the year. I'm still going to be looking for some type of Santa Claus rally next week. GE fell 2/3 on very heavy volume. This was a pretty big move for GE. If GE is a harbinger of things to come, we could see a nasty decline in the overall market. I would expect to see some support here at the $20 level if the fall continues. Gold fell a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished the day little changed. The XAU was off 1 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I'm considering trading a basket of the gold shares, GDX, when I'm ready to try gold again. Perhaps at the beginning of next year. The gold shares remain oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK, considering having to book yesterdays loss. I should be done for this years trading with less than 2 weeks to go in 2012. We are at the mercy of Washington even more so than usual until a tax deal is settled. I do think some kind of agreement will be reached before the end of the year. The market reaction will be key. We will all have to be ready to trade off of that news when it happens. Gold continues to languish as it is holding at the 200 day moving average. A break of that level could take us down to $1620 in a hurry. Hasn't happened yet. We'll keep our eyes and ears open for the next sound bite out of Washington.
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