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Friday, January 11, 2013

A scant higher drift as the Dow gained 17 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  Just marking time here or so it seems.  We opened lower and spent the rest of the session getting back to break even.  I'm looking for weakness at the beginning of next week, followed by some type of move higher.  That's my guess for now.  With only a week to go in the January option cycle the risk obviously increases.  I still may try the OEX calls if conditions come up ideal.  They rarely do.  GE lost a few cents and the volume was average.  Still can't get through the down trend line on a daily basis.  If we do, my GE calls will be profitable.  If we don't, the opposite.  Earnings on expiration Friday.  Gold fell today, off $17 on the futures despite weakness in the US dollar.  This relationship continues to be dysfunctional.  I'm not sure what it means but it isn't bullish for gold.  At some point it will change but it has been a while.  The gold shares are outperforming gold itself here.  However in this environment that means they are just going down less.  The XAU dipped 1/4 today.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses.  The volume was light to average.  I replaced my open order for the February ABX calls with the original trade, moving to a lower strike price.  I may simply try and enter this position on Monday if we see some weakness.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are overbought and staying there.  The summation index continues higher.  It's my belief that we'll hold up into the expiration and then we'll see what happens after that.  I'll probably hold the GE trade into the earnings report but that could change if GE rallies next week.  Gold continues to frustrate as it hovers along its 200 day moving average at $1660.  This has gone on for 3 weeks.  It will be decided which way we are going sooner or later.  I'm still inclined to try the gold share calls again.  That's it for this week.  Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

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