Friday, January 25, 2013
The climb continues as the Dow gained 70 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. Nothing technically has changed. Still overbought all the way around and staying there. It is the energizer bunny rally, it just keeps going and going. Nothing to do but enjoy the ride. We do know it can go on longer than most would expect. We also know that it won't last forever. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. Overbought here as well. My GE February calls are solidly in the black. I'll be holding onto them for a while, with 3 weeks left in this option cycle. The only thing besides Apple that isn't going up is gold. The precious metal futures fell another $13 today despite weakness in the US dollar. This usual inverse relationship between the dollar and gold hasn't taken place for weeks. Perhaps that was a sign to simply stay away from trying to trade gold here. The XAU fell 4 points and was crushed on the week. ABX off 1/2, GG down 3/4 and NEM dropped 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. My February ABX calls are solidly in the red. This trade is going to be a loser and it is in the cut the loss mode already. ABX is oversold at this point so I'll expect a bounce at some point next week. That may or may not happen. Gold remains dead money. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Perhaps some volatility will return next week as there is a plethora of economic data to decipher. And a Fed meeting. The trend remains up though and it would take a lot to change that. The stock indices haven't seen any measurable decline so far this year. Gold itself needs to hold the $1650 level of support, which is just below the 200 day moving average. The gold shares have already broken down so that may not be a good sign. A reversal next week would be the only way to salvage the current ABX trade but that is just wishful thinking on my part. There is no place for wishes in trading. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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