Thursday, January 24, 2013
The Dow continued higher yet again today but it was a mixed market to be sure. The most watched index gained 46 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The S&P 500 was unchanged on the day and the NASDAQ was lower. Still both short and medium term overbought and I'm still expecting some sort of weakness or consolidation for the stock indices at this point. Hasn't happened yet. The summation index remains in a solid uptrend. GE gained about a dime on OK volume. My GE February calls are slightly in the black. GE probably needs to digest its recent gains here and a sideways channel would not be unexpected. I'm looking for GE to reach the $23 level before February expiration. That's my guess at the moment. Gold took a hit today as the futures lost $16. The US dollar was barely higher today. The XAU dropped 5 points. The gold shares have broken their channel to the downside today. ABX and NEM both fell 3/4, while GG shed a buck. Volume was good. I adjusted down the price for the open order for the February ABX calls and it was filled this morning. It is already in the red and it already appears that this trade will be a loser unless we see a reversal tomorrow. That doesn't look very likely. Yesterdays bearish engulfing patterns on many of the gold share stocks signaled more weakness to come. In retrospect, I simply should have canceled the ABX call order. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes continue to defy gravity and that usually doesn't end well. You cannot fight the trend here though. I'd expect a quiet end to the week tomorrow but that's a guess as usual. Gold has lost its luster and continues to be dead money despite the recent $50 move to the upside. The gold shares are leading the way down here and that is not bullish going forward. I'll probably be holding on to the February ABX calls into next weeks Fed meeting though. We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.
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