Thursday, January 10, 2013
The Dow moved to a new high for the year as it gained 80 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive again. I expected more consolidation before moving higher but that is not the case. The summation index continues to the upside. It looks like it is probably too late to try the OEX calls for January. Unless we see a sharp pullback, I most likely will not attempt that trade. We are on the way to being both short and medium term overbought on the stock indices but aren't there yet. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. My GE January calls are now slightly in the black. If we can get through the down trend line that has been in effect since October on good volume, I'd expect GE to approach $22 in a hurry. That line is around the 21.45 level. I'm still likely to hold onto this trade into the earnings on expiration Friday, unless we run up before that report. Gold had a good day as the US dollar got crushed. Talk out of Europe sent the euro higher and the dollar lower. The gold futures rose $22. The XAU gained 3 3/4. ABX up 7/8, GG higher by 1 1/2 and NEM up a buck. Volume was average for the gold shares. This could finally be the start of an extended move higher for the gold shares but it hasn't happened yet. I canceled my open order for the February ABX calls and replaced it at a higher strike price since the premiums moved away from my previous order. I may have to adjust as we move forward and I also may already be too late. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes continue higher and I expect that to be the case into next weeks expiration. The over the counter issues lagged today, so maybe we will see some backing and filling in the next couple of days. That's just a guess as usual. Gold finally moved in tandem with weakness in the US dollar, so perhaps the normal inverse relationship will be back in play with these two. A weaker dollar would also be supportive to higher equity prices as well. We'll see how we close out the week tomorrow.
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