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Thursday, November 08, 2012

What a time to take a couple of days off, which I rarely do but was already committed to.  A brief recap of the 2 days I missed posting the blog.  Tuesday saw a 133 point rally in the Dow as the election uncertainty was going to finally pass.  The gold futures rallied as well, over $30.  The XAU didn't rally as much though.  Wednesday saw a nasty sell-off for stocks as the Dow fell 312 points.  Gold was flat on the day and the XAU rallied slightly again.  Which brings us to today.  The Dow followed through to the downside and that isn't good sign if you're bullish.  The Dow dropped another 121 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average.  I would expect some attempt to stabilize here but who knows?  We are in a liquidation mode for whatever reason.  We will have to see how long this lasts.  The McClellan oscillator still has more room to the downside before we get to the snap back stage.  So it is time to keep an eye on things for sure.  GE dropped 1/4 on average volume and broke to new recent lows.  The 50 week moving average comes in at just below $20.  Not trades here for now.  The gold futures had another good day in the flight to safety.  They rose $12 as the dollar had slight gains as well.  The XAU only moved up 1 1/4.  ABX and GG up 1/4, while NEM was flat.  Volume was average here.  Before I took off for a couple of days, I did place an order for some ABX January calls.  It wasn't filled.  The major gold shares are not moving as much here as I would expect.  Perhaps the recent earnings reports have kept traders away.  I may move over to a second tier gold producer such as IAG.  At least the percentage moves here lately have been better.  I have left the ABX January call trade open though, to see if it will get filled.  I'm still considering if this is a viable idea considering we've had a decent move in gold for the past few days and the major gold shares haven't participated.  Mentally I'm pretty tired, haven't slept well for a couple of days.  The stock indices have the look and feel as if they are simply breaking down here.  I'm not sure how long this will last but I don't think that it is done just yet.  7 days to go in the November option cycle so perhaps we will drop into that.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold has moved up this week but the gold shares haven't followed as much as they should.  No hurry to trade there either I suppose.  We'll keep and eye on how the foreign markets react to todays drop and go from there.

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