Sunday, November 04, 2012
Friday was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 139 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index started heading lower again. We will really need to see things turn around rather quickly or we could be heading towards new recent lows for the stock indices. The technicals remain oversold and that will be a problem if we don't start a rally here. We got a bounce but there was no follow through. The employment report was a bit better than expected but it didn't mean much to stocks. Next week should be very interesting. GE was flat after opening higher and the volume was a little better than average. No trades here for now. Gold got pounded lower on a stronger US dollar. The precious metal futures lost $40, which was the biggest one day loss in quite a while. The XAU fell 8 1/8. ABX off 1 1/3, GG dropped 2 1/4 and NEM led the way down by 4 1/2. Volume was heavy in the gold shares as traders headed for the exits in a hurry. I think the prevailing wisdom here is that the US dollar is starting a longer term rally here and the commodity complex is going to head lower. That's my guess as to what occurred on Friday. Whether or not that is true only time will tell. Of course I'm still reeling from the ABX November call trade but I'm willing to take a look at the gold share calls again for January. However the drop at the moment is so steep that I will have to reassess this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes need to hold on here or it could get ugly. Still oversold and we should have had more upside than the bounce on Thursday. Perhaps we will get some rally this week but the market will go where it wants. Gold is in a down trend. There is a bit of support where we are right now but much more at $1625. The charts of the gold shares look ugly to the downside. I'll be away from my desk starting on Tuesday. I may or may not be able to provide the daily market updates until Thursday or Friday. I might be able to post remotely but we'll see. Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
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