We closed out the week with yet another down day as the Dow fell 73 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Even option expiration week couldn't help this market to even bounce.  We are at an area technically that it is a surprise that we haven't just collapsed.  The McClellan oscillator is very oversold and staying there.  The summation index is heading lower and we are about to pass through the zero line.  I would still be very cautious here.  Some indices appear to be in free fall.  TRAN is in a rapid decline despite the drop in oil.  There's something going on here under the surface and I certainly don't know what it is.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was good.  I'm still looking at the July calls but I'm in no hurry.  Gold was higher again, this time up $17 on the futures.  It was a good week for gold.  The US dollar was lower today for it's first real loss in 3 weeks.  The XAU was flat on the day after being much higher early.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on good volume.  These issues also opened much higher and sold off for the remainder of the trading day.  I may try the June calls here if we sell off into this weeks lows again with a higher RSI reading.  Or not.  I will have to look at the charts over the weekend.  There is also the possibility that what we saw in gold and the gold shares this week is simply a dead cat bounce.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It seems like the stock indexes have been moving in a straight line down since the beginning of May.  We are in a dangerous place technically that should resolve itself in a hurry.  As I said, I'm surprised that we haven't fallen further and faster.  There are no buyers.  Next week should be interesting.  Gold finally found a bid and we will have to see if that is for real.  If the stock market continues to be shaky though, I'd expect more money to flow into the US dollar.  We'll see.  There's always the chance of some unexpected developments out of Europe as well.  That's it for this week.

Well it wasn't a multi-hundred point loss but we were on our way as the Dow fell 156 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  Oversold, staying there and beginning to unravel.  Summation index heading lower.  We are way overdue for a bounce but at this stage that's probably all it would be.  Perhaps if it wasn't for expiration week we would be even lower.  We're in a technically precarious position and caution is advised.  I don't know what the root cause is but the market is speaking and we must pay attention.  I'm on the sidelines for now.  GE was off 1/8 on good volume.  Looks like GE is not a proxy for the market here.  I'm still back to considering the July calls.  But no trades for now.  Gold finally bounced as the futures gained $38, even with the US dollar moving higher.  The XAU rose 5 1/3.  ABX up 2 1/8, GG higher by 2 and NEM gained 1 3/4.  Volume was good.  I'm looking at the June calls here on the bounce.  But I'm in no hurry after the last ABX call trade debacle.  However if the technicals cooperate I may try a trade here within the next couple of weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Anything could happen tomorrow since we closed on the lows for the day.  We are getting the Facebook IPO on Friday and that may help stabilize things for a day.  Option expiration as well.  Interesting times but we really only care about making money from trading.  The problem is that it is really tough in times like these.  Opportunities are out there but I'm currently at a loss to discover them.  I don't have a decent handle on what's going on with the markets at the moment.  I only know that being careful here is probably the most prudent course of action.  Gold and the gold shares should have bounced weeks ago and they finally did today.  Will the same thing happen to the stock indexes?  Stay tuned. 

Once again we tried to rally but to no avail.  The Dow fell 33 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Summation index continues lower.  The Fed minutes didn't do much and the problems in Europe remain center stage.  My technical indicators are so oversold at this point that I believe one of 2 scenarios is about to happen.  The stock indices are either going to begin multi-week rally or we are going to see a quick multi-hundred point decline.  We do not reach these technical levels very often.  I still believe that it's a time to be cautious.  GE was up 2/3 on very heavy volume.  GE announced that it is in the process of reissuing its dividend.  If GE is a proxy for the overall market, then a rally is imminent.  However one day does not make a trend.  I am once again looking at the July calls here.  Gold remains in liquidation mode as the futures fell $20.  The US dollar was higher again.  The XAU was up 3/4 but finished well off of the highs.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume.  We finished well off the highs here as well.  The gold shares showed a brief pop after the Fed minutes but that was about it.  No trades in mind here yet but I will get long again at some point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough.  The stock market is still being held hostage by the problems in Europe.  Once again, there are no quick or easy solutions there.  We move from headline to headline.  It is a tough trading environment.  There's no shame in conserving capital with this type of situation.  That said, you don't make any money either.  But I still think it is a time to be safe rather than sorry.     

The stock market tried to rally today but failed.  The Dow lost 63 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  Summation index continues lower, implying more decline.  Oversold  technically and staying there which could mean even bigger trouble ahead.  I really think it's a time to be cautious.  The problems in Europe are center stage again and there is no easy fix there.  We should have had some kind of triple digit oversold bounce by now.  I'm on the sidelines.  Even the usual expiration week positive bias isn't working.  GE was off about 1/4 on average volume.  Looks like a breakdown out of the congestion zone here.  No trades in mind for GE at the moment.  Gold simply continues to fall, down $4 on the future and another $15 in the aftermarket.  The dollar remains in rally mode and was higher today.  The XAU dropped 5 2/3.  ABX down 1 1/2, GG fell a buck and NEM lost 1 1/4.  Volume was good.  Breaking to new lows on the gold shares and no end in sight.  There is something going on here but I certainly don't know what it is.  I'm guessing money needs to be raised and gold is something to sell.  There will be a time to buy the gold shares and I believe that time is way overdue.  But I would only be guessing at when that time is.  The technicals and indicators that usually work here are blown out to the downside.  I remain on the sidelines.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are in the process of breaking down in the stock indices.  Anything could happen.  Buying interest has dried up.  Once again it is a time to be careful in my opinion.  Gold is still dead money unless you are on the short side.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We appear to be starting another leg down as the Dow fell 125 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  Summation index heading lower.  Oversold and staying there.  No interest in buying stocks at the moment.  Expiration week and it could get volatile.  I'm on the sidelines with no OEX trades in mind.  We should have had some kind of decent bounce by now.  I think it's time to be careful on the long side.  GE dropped 3/8 on average volume.  The same holds true here.  It looks like we are heading lower.  I'm not considering the July calls anymore.  Gold fell again, off by over $20 on the futures as the rally in the US dollar continues.  Gold is not getting the same flight to safety money inflows as the US dollar is here.  Commodities are dropping.  The XAU 4 points.  ABX down 1/2, GG lower by 1 1/3 and NEM lost 2/3.  Volume was average.  The gold shares continue to be beaten up and there is no end in sight.  Considering the last horrible ABX call trade, I have no idea as to when to try the gold shares on the long side again.  Same very oversold and no bounce scenario.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like we're breaking the necklines on the stock indices.  That means lower prices ahead.  No upside bias to expiration week yet.  However we could go lower in a hurry.  It's a time to rather be safe than sorry.  Gold continues lower.  It looks like things are being liquidated for whatever reason.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.

We bounced around today as the Dow lost 34 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices tried to get something going to the upside after dropping at the open but there was no interest.  Still very oversold here both short and medium term.  I think it means that we are either going to start a decent rally from here or we are about to have a pretty good and fast decline.  I don't think there is any middle ground.  Normally I would say we are going to rally at this point but the fact that we haven't yet is worrisome.  So we will wait to see what happens next week.  GE was flat on very light volume.  We're at the bottom of the trading range here.  No trades for now in GE.  Gold fell again, down $11 on the futures.  The US dollar had a slight gain.  ABX off 3/4, GG fell 1/2 and NEM lost 7/8.  Volume was light.  The weekly charts are oversold on the gold shares and the decline has gone on since February.  I suppose I'll be in a wait and see mode here.  We didn't get any type of rally in the gold shares when we should have and that is the same thing that I'm seeing in the stock indexes right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure what to expect next week but there should be some volatility with expiration week upon us.  There's usually a positive bias.  For me at the moment it's probably better to wait things out on the sidelines until I see a decent technical set up and some confidence returns.  I think the way things are in the stock market at the moment that it could go either way.  Gold still appears to be dead money.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Well we got a bounce today but it wasn't much of one as the Dow gained 20 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We opened much higher and gradually sold off for the remainder of the day.  Still oversold but now both on a short and medium term basis.  The summation index continues lower.  We're still on the cusp of something here but what that is, I don't know.  Teetering on the neckline of potential head and shoulders tops for some of the stock indices.  GE was up about 1/8 on light volume.  It looked like we were going to break out to the downside in the trading range but we are back stuck in the range.  No trades in mind here really but I'm still looking at the July calls.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The yellow metal was up a buck on the futures.  The XAU was flat on the day.  ABX up 1/8, GG off 1/4 and NEM dropped 1/3.  Volume was light.  The weekly candlestick charts are starting to look constructive for the gold shares.  There is a possible hammer/morning star pattern developing.  The weekly technicals are blown out to the downside as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We really need to see more of a bounce for the stock indexes here in my opinion or we are on the verge of sharply lower prices.  That's my best guess right now.  I think we are at a point where anything can happen.  The market will go where it wants.  The problems in Europe seem to be taking center stage again.  I've been pretty much wrong on the gold shares lately and it was costly mentally and monetarily.  No trades there for now but I will attempt to trade there again.  We'll see how the week closes out.

Still moving lower as the Dow fell 97 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Even more oversold now on a daily basis.  Summation index still heading lower.  I still expect a bounce here but that might be about it.  However my ideas have been wrong lately.  European worries continue.  GE lost 1/3 on heavy volume.  The question here is if this the beginning of a break to the trading range or a downside washout.  Time will tell.  Gold fell another $10 on the futures as the rise in the US dollar continues.  However the XAU gained 2 1/2.  ABX up 7/8, GG rose a buck and NEM higher by 1 3/4.  Volume was good.  Perhaps this is finally the end of the gold share decline.  It is the first out performance for the gold shares in a long time.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  I still feel that we are at a very important point in the stock indexes.  How the week ends will be telling.  I expected a bounce today and I think the odds of that happening tomorrow are very good.  What happens after that will be key.  Stay tuned.  

We sold off hard early in the day but made a comeback to finish with a loss of 76 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Todays action was what I expected for yesterday.  Not exactly sure where we are heading from here.  Short term oversold on the stock indices right now.  However the summation index is heading lower.  But the McClellan oscillator is showing a potential positive divergence.  We now have lower lows in some indexes but a higher McClellan oscillator reading.  I suppose the key word there is potential.  So the technicals are somewhat mixed but I would expect some type of bounce here.  I thought that yesterday as well.  My take on things lately has been way off.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Nothing new to report here.  No trades in mind at the moment.  Gold took a hit today as the US dollar strength led to a commodity sell off.  The precious metal fell about $35 on the futures.  The XAU dropped 5 points.  ABX lost 1 1/4, GG fell 1 2/3 and NEM shed 1 3/8.  Volume was good.  Gold and the gold shares continue to be liquidated.  I have no idea why they are being sold off.  I can only guess that money needs to raised overseas or the big players are still getting out.  Very oversold and the Gold/XAU ratio remains off the charts.  I dumped the remaining ABX May calls for another over 90% loss.  I now have no open positions.  The ABX trade was sobering.  But it means nothing now.  I try and make the proper adjustments going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes need to hold on here for the bulls to still be in control.  We are right at the necklines of some possible head and shoulders tops reversals.  This is an important point in the stock market and will set the tone for the rest of the month in my opinion.  But I could be wrong and often am.  Gold broke down from the recent support on good volume and that is bearish despite being very oversold.  It looks like support comes in around 1550 but who knows if that will hold.  I'm on the sidelines for now until I can sort things out.  I doubt I'll be attempting any trades in the remaining May option cycle.  We'll see what goes on tomorrow.  A bounce is due.

A lower start to the week as the Dow fell 29 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive and the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The S&P 500 futures sold off big on Sunday night after the election results from overseas.  However there was no follow through downside when the markets opened up today.  We had every reason to sell off this morning and we didn't.  That usually is a sign that the stock market wants to go higher.  The daily technicals on the stock indices are now more oversold than overbought.  GE was flat on the session with light volume.  Still in the trading range here.  Gold dropped $6 today as the US dollar was higher.  However the dollar was much stronger early in the day and came back well off of the highs.  The XAU was off 7/8.  ABX and NEM were both flat on the day while GG lost 3/8.  Volume was light.  I still have some May ABX calls open that are losers.  I'll be selling them this week but am waiting for some kind of bounce to perhaps cut the loss.  The gold shares are oversold and have been for a couple of months.  Gold and the gold shares are dead money.  My trading account died a bit with them.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  9 days left in the May option cycle.  I don't see myself doing any trades after the ABX call trade debacle.  If anything I'd be looking at the OEX calls here.  But my confidence is shot, so the sidelines seem like a good place to be for the moment.  Not a lot of economic data out this week, so there won't be much to trade off of.  We'll see what goes on tonight and take it from there.

It was an employment downer as the Dow fell 168 points on a weaker jobs number.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average.  The summation index is back to moving lower.  Some of the daily charts on the stock indexes have potential head and shoulders tops on them.  If they break the necklines, things could get ugly really fast.  That has yet to happen.  I thought prices would continue higher for the stock indices but whatever I've been thinking lately has been wrong.  We will have to wait and see what happens on Monday.  Todays developments were anything but positive.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  Still in a range and no trades for me there.  Gold held up pretty well despite a rise in the US dollar.  The precious metal futures gained $10.  The dollar rose despite the weak jobs report as the troubles in Europe are back in the trading picture.  Perhaps gold will be perceived as a safe haven again.  Todays gains didn't help the gold shares as the XAU ended flat.  ABX off 1/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM rose 1/2.  Volume was average.  I sold most of my position in the May ABX calls for a 95% loss.  I held on to the later lower strike price calls.  I will probably sell them next week.  Just trying to cut the loss there if we see some strength in gold early next week.  Gold has been moving sideways for 2 months but the gold shares have tanked within the same time period.  Building a position in the May ABX calls was obviously the wrong move and lack of discipline just compounded the mistake.  I'll have to put it behind me and move on.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I think it will be interesting to see how Monday turns out after todays decline in the stock market.  I'm not exactly sure what is going on in Europe besides the election in France but we'll have to just wait and see.  The weekly technicals for the stock indexes have rolled over.  Gold has been dead money for a while.  Perhaps that will change if we get a good dose of fear.  It won't matter for the May calls that I had.  That was one of the all time worst trades I've ever done and I will probably need some time to recover.  Confidence is gone.  My mental capital has dried up.  But I'll still be checking the charts over the weekend and continue to do the work necessary to lead up to the next trade.  Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A bit more to the downside before tomorrows much anticipated employment report as the Dow fell 62 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending higher.  The technicals for the stock indices are in overbought territory.  Tomorrow will set the tone for the next extended move in my opinion.  But that's a guess as usual.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Still stuck in the range between 19 and 20 on the daily charts.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell $20 on the futures and the US dollar finished the day with a slight gain.  The XAU lost 5 3/4.  ABX off 1 1/3, GG fell 1 3/4 and NEM lower by 1 1/2.  Volume was good.  The gold shares have been beaten down to a level not seen since 2010.  Oversold and staying there.  Gold itself has held up much better.  Regardless of the employment report tomorrow, my ABX calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow should be interesting and I have no clue as to which way things will turn out.  We will simply have to wait for the markets reaction to the numbers.  I have no trades in mind for the May option cycle after the debacle with the ABX trade.  I will have to take a step back and reassess my own trading tactics because obviously what I've been doing lately just isn't going to work.  With the exception of the first trade of the year, my results have been horrible.  Confidence is a key factor for success and right now it is an area that I'll need to work on.  My mental state is in a down mood because I did not have the discipline to simply take the loss early.  I definitely put too much emphasis and money on the ABX trade.  It cost me both mentally and monetarily.  I'll need to regroup.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.      

The Dow opened lower and stayed in the red all day.  We finished the day with a loss of only 10 points though.  The advance/declines were negative.  The NASDAQ was higher on the day and that could bode well for the bullish cause going forward.  The summation index is moving higher.  The short term technicals are still overbought here though.  It's a mixed bag technically.  Waiting on Fridays employment report.  GE was pretty much flat on the day after being lower early.  No trades there for now.  Gold fell on the strength of the US dollar.  The dollar rose due to European worries again.  The gold futures fell 8 bucks.  The XAU lost 2 7/8.  ABX off 1 1/8, GG dropped 1/2 and NEM fell a buck.  Volume was light with the exception of ABX which was a bit above average.  The ABX earnings were a bit less than expected and the stock dropped from the open.  My ABX calls are losers.  The lower strike price later purchase is now in the red as well.  This trade will be a big loser as I built a position and was wrong.  As I said yesterday, waiting for the earnings report is never a good strategy.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough.  The stock indexes are holding up pretty good here despite lackluster economic numbers of late.  We still have to wait on Friday though.  However it seems at the moment the market wants to move higher despite the numbers.  As for the ABX trade, it's a loser.  There was no discipline and the stop loss order was never put in.  These are mistakes that should never happen.  You've got to keep moving forward though.  I'll simply have to regroup and move on to the next trade.  Confidence will be the issue for me going forward.  The technicals were oversold for ABX and the Gold/XAU ratio was in the buy zone.  The trade still didn't work.  I should have cut the loss early but didn't.  It isn't the first time and it probably won't be the last.  It will end up being close to a 100% loss.  That is inexcuseable.  But the markets move on.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there. 

We finished with a gain of 65 points on the Dow but finished well off of the highs for the day.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to1 positive and the volume was light.  The economic data reported today was stronger than expected and that was the catalyst for todays rally.  Beginning of the month money flows was also probably a contributing factor.  Where we go from here is the next question which should be resolved on Friday.  Probably a waiting game until then.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  It looks like we've been stuck in a range between 19 and 20 for the past 2 months on the daily chart.  We will have to see which way it breaks but my guess would be to the upside.  Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU was up 1/2.  ABX was flat ahead of the earnings release, while GG and NEM rose around 1/3.  Volume was light.  My ABX May call trade will all depend on the earnings tomorrow.  That is not really the position that I would like to be in.  I'll simply hope for the best and see what happens.  That is no way to trade.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The short term technicals for the stock indices remain overbought.  Todays fade away from the highs isn't exactly bullish.  The coming employment report looms large so I doubt we'll see any major movement before then.  I could be wrong.  I'm waiting for tomorrow mornings ABX earnings announcement and I'll take it from there.

We ended the month of April with a slight loss as the Dow fell 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The week could just end up being a waiting game for Fridays employment numbers as far as the stock indices are concerned.  That's just a guess as usual.  I would expect to see some beginning of the month money flows in the next couple of days though.  I have no OEX trades in mind here but I'd be leaning towards the calls.  GE was off about 1/4 on very light volume.  No hurry to put on any trades here but I am looking out to the July calls.  Gold was flat on the day after selling off early.  The US dollar gained just a bit.  The XAU fell 7/8 and was lower early on as well.  ABX and NEM dropped 1/4, while GG lost 7/8.  Volume was light.  My ABX May calls are still very much in the red with the exception of the purchase at the lower strike price.  Simply waiting for the earnings out on Wednesday morning.  That will determine if the loss will be big or small.  Three weeks left for the options but I doubt I'll be holding on for that long.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes were getting short term overbought and todays action relieves some of that condition.  Todays daily candlestick pattern on the RUT looks ominous so we will have to see how things play out going forward.  Gold sold off and then came all the way back.  Perhaps that will be bullish going forward.  Just a waiting game on the May ABX call trade at this point.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and go from there.

We finished off the highs of the day but the Dow still managed a gain of 23 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The GDP number was lower than expected but the stock indices shrugged it off.  The trend is now up.  The summation index is moving higher.  Declines can now be purchased, in my opinion.  End of the month on Monday.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Getting to short term overbought here.  Perhaps GE will take a rest now ahead of next Fridays employment report.  The overall market could follow this pattern as well.  Gold was up $4 on the futures as the US dollar sold off on the weak GDP report.  The XAU gained 2 1/4.  ABX up 3/4, GG rose 3/8 and NEM gained 1/8.  Volume was light with the exception of NEM.  The earnings for NEM were in line with expectations and the stock finished well off of the highs.  My May ABX calls are mostly still in the red.  I might be able to cut the loss a bit if the earnings surprise to the upside next week.  At any rate it looks like a loser overall.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes are getting short term overbought here, so a pause would not be unexpected.  The key to next week will be Fridays employment numbers but if we are in rally mode they will be interpreted as positive regardless.  We'll see.  Gold had a pretty good week for a change and we will have to see if there is any follow through next week.  The ABX earnings on Wednesday will tell a lot about whether the May call trade has a chance.  At this point it's in the cut the loss mode.  Not much else from here on a Friday afternoon.  I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there.

Three days in a row to the upside as the Dow gained 114 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Summation index continues to the upside, so higher stock prices can be expected in the future barring some unforeseen event.  The stock indices are in rally mode.  Calls are the way to go here.  We've got the 1st quarter GDP tomorrow but whatever the number is, it looks like we will simply continue to the upside.  GE was up about an 1/8 on light volume.  Things are looking constructive there as well but there is no hurry to put on a trade.  Gold had a good day as the futures rose $18 with the US dollar a bit weaker.  The gold shares did not follow as the XAU fell 2/3.  ABX was flat, GG lost 2 1/3, while NEM was up 1/4.  Volume was extremely heavy in GG as the earnings disappointed and the stock got crushed.  NEM announces its earnings report before the open tomorrow.  My ABX May calls are still losers with the exception of the lower strike price purchase.  I'll wait for the earnings next week and go from there.  The volume on the May ABX calls was really big today.  We'll see how that plays out going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes are in rally mode and we will see if we can take out the March highs.  I believe that we will but time will tell.  Tomorrows GDP report should be a mover for the US dollar and hence gold as well.  We're still oversold on the gold shares and still in the extreme buy zone on the Gold/XAU ratio.  Hasn't meant any price upside though in the past few weeks.  My feeling is that it won't stay that way forever.

A rally from the open today as the Dow gained 89 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The earnings from Apple were the catalyst for todays market action.  The Fed announcement was a dud.  Nothing new stated there.  The summation index should now be moving back to the upside which means that this rally could have legs.  The next important piece of news will be the 1st quarter GDP report out on Friday.  GE was off a touch after being much higher early.  Not exactly sure what that means going forward.  No trades in the near term there for me but I am still perhaps interested in the July calls.  Gold had a volatile session as it sold off hard on the Fed announcement but came all the way back to finish virtually unchanged.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU gained 3 1/8 as the gold shares outperformed the precious metal for a change.  ABX up 1/3, GG rose 5/8 and NEM led the way higher by 1 1/8.  Volume picked up here.  The majority of my May ABX calls are showing a loss, with a slight gain for the lower strike price purchase.  We'll get GG earnings tonight followed by NEM tomorrow morning.  If they are halfway decent perhaps ABX will rise in sympathy.  The ABX earnings are due next week.  Not sure that will help this trade but I will probably hang on until then.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough.  The Fed has come and gone and the market is now in rally mode.  The small stocks had a gap to the upside this morning and that is very bullish.  Calls are in order for the stock indices.  Gold made a good comeback today but it still seems like it is just dead money there.  We will need to see some type of upside follow through there for my gold share calls to have a chance.  And by that, I mean a chance to cut the loss.  We'll see how the overseas markets fare tonight and go from there.

A mixed market today as the Dow was higher but the NASDAQ lower.  The Dow gained 74 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Waiting on the Fed here in my opinion.  We will wait for that announcement tomorrow and see how the markets reacts.  The summation index continues lower.  GE was up 1/2 today on OK volume.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, then a rally is imminent.  That is yet to be seen though.  Gold was back up $10 on the futures as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU was flat.  ABX and NEM were down a touch, while GG gained 3/8.  Volume was light.  GG earnings out tomorrow after the close.  My order for the May ABX calls at a lower strike price was filled today and they are slightly in the black.  The original ABX May call trade remains mired in the red.  Tomorrows Fed announcement should produce some movement in the gold shares one way or the other.  Very oversold both short and medium term for the gold shares but we have yet to see any type of rally.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow and if GE along with the transportation index are leaders as they often are, then I'm looking for some type of stock index rally.  But anything can and will happen.  It could also just be a non-event but I doubt it.  Of course I'll be keeping an eye on what gold does.  Earnings this week for GG and NEM.  That will also produce some movement in ABX.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  

A negative start to the week as the Dow fell 102 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The stock indexes started the day with a huge decline at the open and never really recovered.  The summation index continues lower.  I'm not sure what is going on here but the weak volume isn't a positive.  Perhaps we are simply marking time until the Fed announcement.  Getting short term oversold on the daily charts but we aren't there yet.  GE had a gap to the downside and finished off 1/3 on light volume.  No trades in mind here but I am starting to consider going out to the July calls.  There is no hurry though.  Gold fell $10 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU fell 3 points but was lower early.  ABX off 5/8, GG fell 1 1/3 and NEM dropped a buck.  Volume was heavy here.  My ABX May calls are still very much in the red and this trade is looking like a big loser.  That said, todays action seems like a washout to the downside.  The daily candlestick chart for ABX appears to have formed a hammer or star today.  I'm leaving in an overnight order for some more ABX calls at a lower strike price.  This isn't something that I would normally do but unless the stock indices and gold simply collapse here, it looks like a bottom for the gold shares.  The Gold/XAU ratio is the highest that I've seen it in years.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We're still in a sideways consolidation on the daily charts for the S&P 500.  Plenty of economic data this week so perhaps we will break out one way or the other.  I've been a believer in the gold shares here and so far that is not working out.  If we don't see some upside this week I'll probably just have to take my losses and move on.  Waiting on the Wednesday Fed announcement.  

We came well off the highs of the day but the Dow managed to close with a gain of 65 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall stock indices were weaker than the Dow.  Basically sideways for a couple of weeks now after the recent decline.  I still think we could go either way here.  The GE earnings came out and the market liked what it saw.  The stock gained 1/4 on good volume but also came off of its highs.  It really wasn't the type of gain that I was looking for though.  I don't have any trades in mind here at the moment.  Gold was up a buck or so on the futures despite a weaker US dollar.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX off 2/3, GG was flat and NEM dropped 1/2.  Volume was light except for ABX which was average.  My ABX calls are now deeply in the red.  We have also now broken down through the recent congestion zone with todays negative action.  It appears that my idea for the gold shares here is wrong.  There are still 4 weeks to go in these options but we would have to turn around a lot in a hurry.  I'm still holding them until we see what happens next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough.  Plenty of economic data out next week so we will have to see how the market reacts to it.  The stock index technicals are still mid-range on the daily charts.  Right now it looks like gold is simply dead money.  The US dollar fell today and gold didn't even move.  The Gold/XAU ratio is deeply in the buy zone again and nothing is happening.  There seems to be absolutely no interest in owning the gold shares.  I built a position in the ABX May calls and it's looking more and more like a loser.  I'll check the charts again over the weekend and get ready for Monday morning.  We could be in a holding pattern until the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mostly down session today as the Dow fell 68 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The stock index technicals remain mid-range. We still could go either way here. If we do start to fall and get a positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator, that would be a decent buy signal in my opinion. Or the market could simply continue higher from here. I think that for now it's still a toss up. GE was flat on the day and the volume was pretty good. The earnings out tomorrow will probably set the trend for the stock indexes for the day. The technicals here are neither overbought or oversold. Any position in GE held now has a lot of risk. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar bounced around but finished the day basically unchanged. The XAU was up early but closed the day with a 1/4 point loss. ABX off 1/8, GG was up 1/2 and NEM off a touch. Volume for the gold shares was nothing special. My ABX May calls continue in the red as the time decay occurs. I'm going to at least hold on here until at least next week. Oversold both short and medium term for the gold shares but they haven't rallied. The market will do what it wants. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. Expiration Friday tomorrow. We'll get through that and wait for next week when we get the Fed, 1st quarter GDP and some gold share earnings. Patience is required sometimes.

Back to the downside as the Dow fell 82 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The McClellan oscillator is trying to get through the zero line but has failed once again. This will keep the summation index continuing lower for now. The stock index technicals are mid-range, which means we could go either way here. Worries about Spain today but any excuse will do. The volume has been pretty anemic lately and we would need some volume to push prices higher. The overall market was better than the Dow and that is usually a positive going forward. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. Just waiting on the earnings report due Friday. Gold fell $11 on the futures and the US dollar really didn't move much today. The XAU dropped a point. ABX off 1/4, GG fell 7/8 and NEM lost 3/8. Volume light here as well. I left in an open order for some ABX May calls and it was filled this morning. The position has now been completed on the buy side. It is already under water but I plan on holding it for a couple of weeks unless we have some type of market breakdown. We'll see what happens. No interest in gold at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. 2 days left in the April option cycle. The gold share call position has been established. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A huge day to the upside as the Dow climbed 194 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Some good earnings reports but nothing really out of the ordinary. Coming off of the recent short term oversold condition. The question now is the recent decline done? I certainly don't have the answer but it could be. It is expiration week and the positive bias seems to be in effect. Today was also the last day to contribute to retirement plans due to the income tax deadline. We'll have to see if there is any upside follow through tomorrow. GE rose 3/8 on light volume. Earnings out on Friday. No trades there for now but the calls are looking good after todays action. Tomorrow is another day. Gold was pretty much flat on the day after selling off early. The US dollar was flat. The XAU rose 1 3/4. ABX up 1/2, GG gained 1/3 and NEM 1/8 higher. I tried to complete yesterdays ABX trade but the order was not filled. I'm leaving it in overnight. I'm still thinking that the calls are the way to go here and going out to May is the strategy. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The S&P 500 is trying to hang on at its 50 day moving average line on the daily charts. How that is resolved will probably let us know the near term market direction. The summation index is still heading lower but another day like today will reverse that. Hasn't happened yet. When gold sold off early today, the gold shares didn't follow. That could indicate positive action coming up for the gold stocks. Or not. I'm still a believer in getting long the gold shares here but I've been wrong before. Quite often this year with the gold shares as well. We'll see if the foreign markets follow us higher tonight.

A mixed day in the markets as the Dow gained 71 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow and that usually isn't bullish going forward. The technicals are still more oversold than overbought. Summation index heading lower. It's option expiration week. GE was flat on the day and the volume was very light. Could be in a holding pattern until the earnings report on Friday. That's a guess. No trades here for me at the moment. Gold fell $10 on the futures with the US dollar lower as well. Not exactly sure what that means. The XAU dropped 2 1/3. ABX off 3/4, GG fell about 1/4 and NEM down by 1/2. I tried to add to my ABX May call trade but my order was only partially filled. The ABX calls are in the red but I still think this trade is the way to go. I'm not sure if I'll try and complete the rest of todays partial fill tomorrow. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I get the feeling the stock indexes could go either way here. I think that I would still wait for a positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator before trying the OEX calls. However there are only 4 days left for the April option cycle. The Gold/XAU ratio is at the point where the risk/reward for trying the gold share calls clearly favors an attempt. That's one of the reasons I'm giving them a shot. Plenty of time for the trade to work is another advantage in trying them here and now. We'll see what happens.

Back to the downside today as the Dow closed the week with a loss of 137 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We got an oversold bounce and it now looks like we'll head back to test the recent lows early next week. We are still more to the oversold side on the daily stock index charts. The summation index continues lower. I'd like to think that I have an idea of which way we are going but I don't. I will probably look for a positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator next week and perhaps trade that. However it will be option expiration week. That usually brings with it an upward bias but with the recent volatility, anything goes. GE was off 3/8 on light volume. Earnings out in a week and I'm most likely not going to trade this issue in the near term. I was fortunate to get out of the GE trade that I did this week without a loss. The weekly technicals have rolled over to the downside here. Gold fell $20 on the futures today as the US dollar had a good day to end the week. The XAU fell 2 3/4. ABX off 5/8, GG dropped 1/3 and NEM lost 7/8. Volume was light. I bought some ABX May calls this morning. I'm a believer in this trade. The gold shares are oversold both short and medium term. Going out to May gives this trade plenty of time to work. I might even add to the position next week. Todays gain in the US dollar could be a problem for golds bullish case and it will have to be kept an eye on. As usual my idea here could be completely wrong as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept better for a change. Volatility has returned to the stock market for whatever reasons. There may be something going on here that we will only find out about later. Trading could be even trickier than usual. I'm trying the gold share calls again and that hasn't really worked well for me so far this year. I'll go over the charts again this weekend and take it from there. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A huge day for the stock market as the Dow gained 181 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive. The sellers have disappeared for now. This bounce seems like it is the beginning of a move to new highs with todays action. Time will tell. No reason that I can see for such a huge move except for moving off of an extreme oversold short term condition. We'll see how we end the week tomorrow. GE was up almost 1/3 on light volume. I dumped the GE calls that I bought earlier this week for a slight 10% gain. The volume on the bounce here has been very light. This trade might be worth holding on to but I'm gone. The entry was early and this wasn't the most well planned idea. Gold gained $20 on the futures as the US dollar fell today. The XAU soared 6 points. ABX up 1 1/8, GG added 1 1/3 and NEM higher by 1 1/2. My order for the ABX May calls wasn't filled. I'm leaving it in overnight. This is a trade that I would really like to be in and I hope that I'm not too late. Gold is moving higher for no apparent reason and now the gold shares have taken notice. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock market has bounced pretty strong here. I did not expect it. The volume has been light though. My mind was taken up with the GE trade and I should have been paying attention to the gold shares. I was but it's better for me to do one trade at a time. There's still time for the gold share trade in my opinion but I should already be there. The small profit in GE is better than a small loss. However you don't trade options for small gains. I'll keep moving on to the next trade. 6 days to go in the April option cycle. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got a bounce today but finished off the highs as the Dow gained 89 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. I'm not convinced that this is anything but a bounce due to the light volume. But I could be wrong. We're still oversold in the short term for the stock indexes. The McClellan oscillator is bouncing as well. Tomorrow could tell a lot, one way or another. We haven't been as oversold on the stock indices since November. However if this is going to be a multi-week affair to the downside, the oversold condition will persist. It's really anybodies guess. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. The April calls I bought yesterday are slightly in the red. They were back at break even early in the session. This is a trade that I do not want to hold into the earnings report next week. I'll have to see how we open tomorrow and go from there. Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar was off a bit. The XAU fell 2 3/4. ABX off 3/8, GG down 7/8 and NEM lost a buck. Volume was light. My open order for the ABX May calls wasn't filled and I have left it in place. No interest in the gold shares today. I'm still probably going to try this trade if we see some weakness tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Inflation data on tap for the next couple of days. I'm going to have to do something with the GE trade by the end of this week or I'll be holding it longer than I want. Hopefully if it moves into a profit tomorrow, I'll dump it. I'll be keeping an eye on gold overnight and be ready for the gold share calls tomorrow on any weakness.

The market got clobbered today as the Dow fell 213 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. Oversold and staying there. That hasn't happened for a while and it certainly isn't bullish. The McClellan oscillator is now even more oversold than yesterday and a bounce is imminent. But it is probably going to be nothing more than that. Something has changed here and I don't know what. We've broken the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 daily charts and that is another negative. Earnings are starting to come out and perhaps the market knows they won't measure up. GE fell about 1/2 on good volume. I bought some April GE calls this morning and they are firmly in the red. This is a trade that probably isn't going to work. I don't think that I'll be waiting for the earnings report next Friday. If we bounce I will probably simply take the loss. I do not want to be wrapped up in this trade for long. Gold had a good day on the flight to safety. The precious metal gained another $15 on the futures. The US dollar didn't do much today. The XAU was higher by 1 1/8. ABX up 1/2, GG rose 3/8 and NEM led the way with a gain of a buck. Volume was good as money moved into the gold shares. The gold shares should be the next trade. Going out to May is the idea here. I'm leaving in an open order for some May ABX calls. The Fed is out with some words tomorrow and perhaps that will lower the price of the gold shares. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough again. The stock indexes are practically in free fall. I'm not sure what is going on. Taking on the GE trade today was a mistake. I'll need to exit with any rebound there. I'm going to try the gold share calls again. It hasn't worked lately. We'll probably see some weakness in the foreign markets but I expect some type of rebound at some point tomorrow in the US. That's a guess as usual. It is probably a time to be careful as volatility has returned.

A downside start to the week as the Dow fell 130 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. Summation index continues lower but the McClellan oscillator is at an area where a bounce can be expected. We are also short term oversold on the stock index technicals. I think any downside tomorrow can be bought for the short term. Beyond that, who knows? It should be an interesting week. GE dropped 1/3 on light volume with a gap to the downside. Oversold on the short term here as well. Not exactly sure what trade to take here but I'm now leaning towards the April calls. This would be a trade that hinges on the earnings that are due on expiration Friday in 9 trading days. Risky is the key term here. I do not think that I'll be trying the May calls here as previously planned. We'll see. I could change my mind tomorrow. Gold was up about $14 on the futures as the US dollar dropped a bit today. No real interest in gold here it seems to me. The XAU was up 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1/4 on light volume. The gold shares are blown out to the downside and I am considering the May ABX calls here even though my last few trades here haven't worked. The Gold/XAU ratio is off the charts and in the past that has been a reliable buy signal. I'm a believer that you have to buy things when nobody else wants them and that is certainly the case with gold at the moment. I could be wrong and often am but I still think this is a trade that I'm going to put on this week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. Haven't really seen 4 days in a row to the downside for stock since last year. Is it the beginning of something longer to the downside or is it time to buy? Everyone is looking for the answer to that question. I do expect a bounce in the next couple of days. It's what happens after that to keep an eye on. Gold is going nowhere and the gold shares are in a funk. I still think that going out to the May calls there has a chance to work. We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays negative US stock market action and go from there.

Kind of a waiting game for the stock market today as the Dow fell 14 points on holiday light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Summation index still heading lower. The technicals for some of the stock indexes are finally getting oversold on a daily basis. However tomorrows employment report should set the tone for the open on Monday. I have no idea what that will bring. We'll see what happens in Europe tomorrow, have a long weekend and go from there. GE was off 1/4 today on light volume. The weekly charts appear to have rolled over here. That would not bode well for the overall market if it continues. I will have to reassess my idea for the May calls here. Getting oversold on the daily charts. Gold bounced back a little over $15 today and the US dollar was higher as well. The XAU was off 1 3/4. ABX down 5/8, GG fell 1/3 and NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was still pretty good despite the holiday mode of the markets. The gold shares are very oversold and the Gold/XAU ratio is off the charts to the buy side. I will have to consider getting the calls here again but that hasn't worked lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I will be going over the charts this weekend and try to come up with some type of game plan for next week. 2 weeks to go in the April option cycle. My trading hasn't been very good lately and that will have to change for the better. It's a long weekend and time for a rest.

It looks like perhaps we're in store for an extended sell-off as the Dow fell 124 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. We did finish off of the lows but the action was decidedly negative. Yesterday we were down but did finish well off the lows. However today did not follow through to the upside. The summation index continues lower. We would have to have the stock indexes hold right where they are for the action to remain sideways. Doesn't feel like it. GE was down 1/4 on average volume. The May calls have gotten cheaper and may even get cheaper still. I will probably try this trade when the technicals get oversold. We're almost there. Gold continued lower, falling over $50 on the futures due to the Fed fallout from yesterday. The dollar also gained more ground today. The XAU dropped 6 1/3. ABX down 1 2/3, GG fell 2 3/8 and NEM off 1 7/8. Volume was heavy and it could have been a downside blow-off. Or not. GLD broke the near term support at 158. I will have to rethink my overall scenario for gold and the gold shares going forward. Obviously my thoughts here have been bullish but that has been wrong. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock indices are perhaps on the verge of an extended decline. That's a guess as usual. Some of the daily charts have pulled back to their 50 day moving averages. It will be telling if they hold or not. Gold is falling apart here and I don't think I'm ready to step in just yet. One trading day left in the week and the employment report coming out on the holiday. Things seem a bit more interesting than usual.

A downer for the markets today as the Dow fell 65 points on slightly better volume than yesterday. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The Fed beige book was a mover today as we sold off on the expectation that the easing is done. Well rates are at zero, so the easing has been done for a while. But the markets need excuses to move and that was todays. We were off more than 100, so a comeback was made. The summation index is still trending down. I expect the rest of the week to be quiet but I thought that yesterday as well. GE fell a touch on light volume. The technicals have rolled over here and I'm still looking for an entry point for the May calls. The game plan is to own the calls before the earnings report on expiration Friday. We'll see. Gold got hammered today after the Fed minutes. The precious metal was down $7 on the futures but lost another $25 in the aftermarket. The US dollar in contrast had a very strong day. This doesn't bode well for gold in the near term. The XAU fell 5 1/2. ABX off 1 1/4, GG shed 2 1/2 and NEM dropped 1 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. I had to dump the ABX April calls for a 30% loss. What had been a profitable trade turned into a loss rather quickly. However I was slow to get out as well. I'm still interested in the May gold share calls but I'm going to have to see how todays negative action plays itself out. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Although I'm still looking for higher prices here for the stock indices there is a possibility that we simply move sideways for a time. The month of April sometimes plays out like that. The technicals for the stock indexes are either overbought or mid-range. I'm still a believer for the GE May call trade for now. The recent ABX trade loss could have been avoided with better timing and tactics but that is always the case. The entry there was lazy and the exit wasn't quick enough. That is a recipe for failure. I'll have to regroup and try to do better the next time. If GLD breaks through 158, then I think the time for being long gold will have to wait. So I'll keep an eye on that. The Gold/XAU ratio has remained in the strong buy zone for so long that it is beginning to seem irrelevant. I'll probably stay on the sidelines for the rest of this week and go from there.

The Dow started off the shortened holiday week with a gain of 52 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. No news to speak of today. The technicals are still overbought for the stock indexes. However I'm still looking for higher prices going forward. I suppose we'll simply wait for the employment report on Friday although the markets are closed that day. Could be interesting. GE was off a touch on light volume. I'm waiting on the May calls there to get to a price that I'm willing to pay. Gold was up around $7 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 3 1/2. ABX up 3/4, GG rose a buck and NEM added 7/8. Light volume here. My ABX calls are still in the black but the option premium is not moving as much as I would like or expect. Perhaps this is simply a case of it being a holiday week and the major players have found other ways to occupy their time. That's a guess as usual. The technicals have turned to the upside for the gold shares and that's a positive going forward. I'd still like to try the May gold share calls if the opportunity presents itself. I'm holding the April ABX calls for now but may simply dump them this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Perhaps todays market action will turn the summation index back to the upside. The positive beginning of the month money flows should stave off any major decline this week but you never know. We've got the Fed beige book tomorrow but the last time we got this, it was a non event. The Gold/XAU ratio is still in the buy zone but it has been for weeks. I'll be watching how the ABX calls move and take it from there.

We closed out the week and the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 66 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow and the summation index is still moving to the downside. I still think that we'll be moving higher here but that's a guess as usual. Beginning of the month money flows should help the bullish case for the beginning of next week. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Moving sideways there now for the most part. I'm probably still going to be a buyer of the May calls before the earnings announcement in April. Gold gained about $15 on the futures today as the US dollar was lower. The dollar almost broke a near term support line today but has strong support at the 78 level. The XAU was up 1 2/3. ABX rose 1/3, GG up 2/3 and NEM was a touch lower on the day. Volume was light. My April ABX calls are still in the black. However GG is once again showing much better relative strength and I really should have purchased the calls there instead. There is a possible positive RSI divergence for ABX on the daily charts though. We'll have to wait and see if that plays itself out to the upside as it normally would. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well again. We had some selling this week but the stock indices still managed to make some gains. The trend remains up as it has been for months now. A holiday shortened week coming up, with the employment report due on the holiday with the markets closed. That could be interesting. I'm in another ABX April call trade and I'll have to figure out what exactly to do there this weekend. I would like to try the May gold share calls as well. We'll see. I'm still on the back-up computer and these issues should be taken care of sometime next week. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow managed a gain of 19 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It was a one day reversal to the upside, as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. That would imply higher prices going forward. However the summation index continues lower. We'll end the month tomorrow and go from there. Still overbought on the stock index technicals. GE was off a touch on light volume. Sideways here for the past couple of weeks. Still considering the May calls and would like to purchase them before the earnings report in April. The technicals are mid range here. Gold was off $5 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The US dollar ended the day little changed. The XAU was up 1/3 and showed the same positive one day reversal as did the Dow. ABX was flat on the day, while GG and NEM lost 1/8. Volume was average. The gold shares now appear to have bullish hammers on the daily candlestick charts, depending on where we go from here. My open order for the ABX April calls was filled in the morning but I really should have adjusted it to get a better price. They are slightly in the black. I'm not sure how long I'll be holding them but will until at least next week. The technicals on the gold shares remain oversold. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. The next trade is now on. I was lazy this morning, which is unacceptable. The game is hard enough without making it any harder on yourself. The weekly as well as daily charts for the gold shares are oversold, so I think getting the calls here is the right choice. I would still like to go out to May on this trade as well. But as we all know, the markets will go where they want. The Gold/XAU ratio remains in a strong buy. We'll see what happens. The stock indexes have been weaker this week but I'm still looking for higher prices into the April expiration. The trend still remains up for now.

We continued lower today but finished off of the worst levels as the Dow fell 71 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. I'm not exactly sure what's next but what else is new? Still overbought on the technicals for the stock indices. 2 days remaining this month. Volatility spiked up early today but then fell back. We could go either way near term but I'm still looking for higher prices into the April option expiration. GE ended up flat on the day on better volume. We're moving sideways again here. The May calls for GE are still on my radar. If the options get to the price level that I'd like to pay, I'll probably give that trade a try. Gold fell today, off over $25 on the futures. The US dollar was marginally higher. The XAU lost 3 7/8. ABX down 2/3, GG lower by 1/2 and NEM shed another buck. I placed an overnight order for the April ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it in overnight and I may modify it early tomorrow morning. Oversold on the technicals plus the Gold/XAU ratio is still deep in the buy zone. The Gold/XAU ratio has been in the buy zone for quite some time yet the gold shares continue lower. That won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. We'll have to see how the stock indexes fare tomorrow afters todays decline and comeback. We'll also be looking to see if gold follows through to the downside. I'll consider the ABX April call trade again tonight and try to decide what to do tomorrow. I still think that purchasing the ABX calls again here is the proper trade. We'll see.

Digesting yesterdays gains today as the Dow fell 44 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Not exactly sure where we go from here but I am still looking for higher prices. The stock indexes kind of fell apart in the last hour and that usually means lower prices ahead. End of the month on Friday as well. The summation index is moving sideways. GE was flat on the day with light volume as well. I'm still waiting on the May calls here as the price hasn't reached the level that I'd like to purchase just yet. Patience is required and there is no hurry for now. Gold was off a touch on the futures and fell $5 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was bit higher today and is trying to hold an upside trend line on the daily charts that has been in effect since November. If it holds we'll see a rally in the dollar and that would not be positive for gold. If it doesn't hold than the opposite should occur. The XAU fell 2 1/2. ABX off 2/3, GG lost 1/2 and NEM lower by a buck. When the stock market continued to drop in the final hour, I dumped the ABX calls. The profit was 45%. I needed to have a winning trade and I at least accomplished that but the profit could have been better. I still like this trade and will probably put in an overnight order to buy these again. Or perhaps go out to May, which is the preferred idea. The Gold/XAU ratio remains solidly in the bullish buy zone which leads me to believe the gold shares calls will work again. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We'll have to see if there is any follow through downside for the stock indices tomorrow morning. Still overbought on the technicals. I'll be keeping an eye on the gold shares for follow through to the downside as well. Perhaps will try the April calls again this week. Not much else to report for now.

We started the last week of March with a bang as the Dow gained 160 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index back to the upside. Big Ben Bernanke said the US would keep interest rates low. This isn't new news. However the market will go where it wants. Still overbought and still moving higher. It's a broken record but you cannot fight it. There were no sellers today. Plenty of liquidity it seems. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. I'm still looking at the May calls here if the price gets to what I'd like to pay for them. May not happen at this rate. No hurry here as GE is usually a pretty slow mover. Gold had another good day as the US dollar was weaker. The gold futures were up $23 and gained some more in the aftermarket. The XAU only rose 2 3/4 though. ABX gained 3/4, GG up 1 1/8 and NEM managed only an 1/8 higher. Volume was nothing special. My April ABX calls are solidly in the black. Both the daily and weekly charts look constructive now here but I would still like to try the May calls. However once again the relative strength is with GG, as the options there have appreciated much better than ABX here. But my focus is on the April ABX calls since that is the position that I've taken. The Gold/XAU ratio remains in the bullish buy zone. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough but still on the back-up computer. The stock indices continue to the upside with no end in sight for the rally. There is no technical damage to say that the rally is going to end. Looking for calls to purchase remains a winning strategy. You cannot fight the trend, the tape or the Fed. Once again gold is moving higher and the gold shares are lagging. That usually isn't bullish going forward but the gold share charts are looking bullish at the moment. We'll see what happens in the overseas market and go from there.

A slight bounce to close out the week as the Dow gained 34 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues heading lower. The technicals for the stock indices have rolled over but they are still overbought. We will have to see if this recent decline is bought as all the previous declines have been. Still 4 weeks to go in the April option series. I have no OEX trades in mind but I still have to be looking for higher prices going forward. I could be wrong. GE was flat on the day and the volume was very light. I am still looking to be a buyer of the May 20 calls at the right price. My thinking is that this trade should be put on before the mid-April earnings announcement. Preferably with oversold technicals. Gold had a good day for a change as it rose about $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower yet again. Interest rates in the US have risen in the past couple of weeks yet the dollar fell. This is not the normal expectation. I do not know the reasons. The XAU gained 2 7/7. ABX up 2/3, GG rose 3/4 and NEM higher by 7/8. Volume was light to average. My ABX April calls are in the black. I should probably be selling these next week but we will have to see what happens. I really do need a winning trade though, just for the confidence factor. However I don't want to sell too early either. The game is never easy. Mentally I'm doing the best I can considering my computer problems and moving onto the back-up. Like anything else you just have to make the adjustments and keep on moving. End of the month coming next week. I'll be keeping an eye on GE for a possible entry point for the May calls. Plenty of economic data to digest as well. I'll need to come up with a solid game plan for the ABX call trade. Checking all the charts on various time frames must be done as well. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower once again as the Dow fell 78 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Summation index heading lower. Is this the beginning of a long awaited multi-week correction? I certainly don't know. Perhaps we'll move down to the 50 day moving average on the stock indices. Or not. All of the recent declines during this rally have been bought so far. There's no reason to think that now is any different. GE was off about 1/4 on average volume. The technicals appear to be rolling over here. Perhaps there will be an opportunity to purchase the May 20 calls at a decent price. I'm still considering that trade. I'll probably be looking at a move down to the 50 day moving average here as well. Gold lost $7 on the futures but were lower during the session. The US dollar gained a bit today. The XAU fell 3 1/2 and was weaker than the precious metal again. ABX off 1/2, GG down 1/4 and NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was light to average. I modified lower my open order for the ABX April calls last night and it was filled in the morning. They are slightly positive here at the close. I'm still thinking that this trade will work but I don't plan on holding it that long. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing as best that I can. Computer problems occurred today and I may have to buy another computer over the weekend. I'm on the back-up computer and it is not the same as regular trading operations. But the markets move on. We'll have to see how the week ends tomorrow as it seems that buyers have moved to the sidelines for now. The technicals on the stock indices have started to roll over. The next trade has begun. I'm expecting some type of bounce for the gold shares here but there's always the possibility that we just keep heading lower. The gold shares remain oversold on the technicals and the Gold/XAU ratio remains solidly in the buy zone. That hasn't mattered for some time now but it will. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

2 down sessions in a row as the Dow fell 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were just about even. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again. Despite the lower prices we're still short term overbought. It seems like we are simply meandering around in the stock indices this week so far. Not a lot of economic data out to drive prices. I don't expect any major decline to be in the works but what do I know? Summation index still heading lower. GE was flat today on average volume. I'm still considering the May 20 calls there at the price I'm willing to pay. Gold was up a few bucks today but closed off of its highs. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU was flat on the day. ABX and GG were off about 1/8, while NEM fell 1/2. Volume was average. I still have the open order in for the ABX April calls but I may cancel it tonight. I'm still considering the May calls there as well. Feels like the gold shares are trying to make a stand here at 175 on the XAU. If we don't hold here, gold and the gold shares will be heading much lower. My thinking is that this level will hold and we'll see some type of multi-week rally. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. A couple days to the downside in the stock indexes but no real technical damage. I'm guessing the rest of the week will be relatively quiet. Not much else to report today.

A bit of downside today as the Dow fell 69 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We are still overbought and really need more downside than just today. The market was down more earlier but every hint of a decline is being bought. That will not last forever. The summation index is heading lower now. Perhaps we will now see some type of extended move lower. Or not. GE fell 1/8 on light volume. If the May 20 calls get into the price zone that I'm looking for, I'll buy them. They're not there yet. One day does not make a trend. If we work off the short term overbought condition here, the premiums might come down to my buy level. Time will tell. Gold fell again today, off $20 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight gain. The XAU however rose 3/4, which is the first time in a long time that the gold shares have outperformed the precious metal. I think the gold shares are at a short term bottom. ABX, GG and NEM were all up 1/8 after being lower early. Volume was good. I am going to try a short term ABX call trade. I have left in an open order for the April 45 calls in case we see some weakness tomorrow morning. There is a positive divergence on the daily RSI indicator. Todays price action was bullish for ABX and we still have a screaming buy from the Gold/XAU ratio. This trade may be too late though if we simply continue to move higher from here. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll have to see if we get any follow through downside with the stock indices tomorrow. The overall market still remains stronger than the Dow and that is usually bullish going forward. I'm trying the gold share calls again here. I could be wrong and I'm still looking to go out to May with this trade idea as well. Another factor for attempting a short term trade here is the distance that ABX has moved below its 50 day moving average. My thinking is that the price will now start to move back towards that line. We'll see.

Just another day in the marketplace as the Dow rose 6 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. Both short and medium term overbought here and I would expect some type of pullback pretty soon here. But the market will go where it wants and we could stay overbought as we have in the last few months as the stock indices grinded higher. But I would not be surprised by some weakness near term. GE was off a touch on light volume. I am going to try the May 20 calls here if they get to a price that I'm looking for. That is one of the ideas I am looking at going forward. Overbought here as well, so perhaps I'll get a chance to purchase the calls this week. We'll see. Gold was up $11 on the futures but pulled back from there in the aftermarket. The US dollar was lower again today. Not exactly sure what is going on with the dollar here but it hasn't led to any kind of rally in gold really. That generally isn't bullish for gold. The XAU lost 1/3 after being higher early. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses of 1/4 or less on average volume. I think we may get one more washout downdraft in the gold shares and I will be looking at the May calls if that occurs. That's a guess as usual. The gold shares are still oversold and staying there. The stock market is rallying and there is not any interest in the gold shares. The Gold/XAU ratio remains in a strong buy signal and nothing is happening. We are getting to be at about the most bearish that it can get for gold. That is probably when you want to step in. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Nothing has changed since the last trading session. Moving higher in an overbought environment for the stock indexes. The trend remains up. It will end at some point but trying to pick that point right now is impossible in my mind. I'll be looking for some calls on a dip. March is typically the worst month for the price of gold and that is the case so far this month. Patience is required here to get long again.

Not much action for expiration Friday as the Dow fell 20 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. Pretty overbought on the short term here and I would expect weakness at some point early in the new week. Perhaps that will bring an entry point for some calls. The trend for the stock indices remains up. A lot of housing data out next week but that's about it. GE was up a touch today and the volume remains strong. I'm now considering the May calls here if we get a pullback. I think GE has more room to the upside and it has yet to take out its recovery high at about $21. The May 20 calls could be the next trade. Gold didn't do much today, off about $3 on the futures. This despite another down day for the US dollar. The interest in owning gold has waned. The XAU was off 1/3. The gold shares were mixed again. ABX up 1/8, GG off 1/3 and NEM rose 1/8. Volume was extremely heavy here. I'm guessing that is was option expiration related. This really looks to me like a place to try the gold shares again but the recent losses that I've taken here are making me hesitate. Not to mention that the dollar has taken quite a hit in the past 2 sessions and gold hasn't really done anything. I'll consider things over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The stock indexes continue to rally. Nothing seems to be in the way of that. Any dips are being bought. Until that changes, calls are the only way to go. Option premiums will be priced a bit higher for April due to the extra week involved. I'll be going over all the charts over the weekend trying to find the next opportunity. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The positive expiration week bias continues as the Dow gained 58 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The trend remains up until further notice. Overbought and staying there. The volume has been good on the recent rise to new highs. That would imply even higher prices yet to come. Pullbacks can still be purchased in my opinion. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. The chance to get the calls here may have passed. But like the stock indices, pullbacks can be bought. We haven't set new recovery highs here yet. Gold bounced back around $15 on the futures today as the US dollar lost some ground. The XAU was up 1/2. The gold shares were mixed. ABX gained 1/2, GG was flat and NEM off 1/2. Volume remains pretty good here. I'll be considering the May gold share calls if we get a signal but patience is probably the best course of action at this time. The Gold/XAU ratio remains a strong buy but that signal hasn't been working in this gold sell off. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying not to force a trade here. The stock indices remain strong and usually will go higher than most traders think. We are on the cusp of the April option cycle. There is an extra week for the April options, so the premiums will be higher than usual. I suppose there is no rush. We'll see how the week finishes tomorrow.

Digesting yesterdays huge gains would describe todays market action as the Dow gained 16 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative though. The summation index did turn back to the upside yesterday. Still short term overbought on the stock indices. I have no trades in mind here. GE was up 1/4 on good volume again. We've broken out from the congestion zone. If we get a pullback towards the zone, I may try the April calls there. I do not want to chase things here, so patience is advised. If a pullback happens I'll consider the trade. Gold got clobbered again today, off $50. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 6 1/3. ABX down 2 bucks, GG lost 1 1/2 and NEM fell 1/2. Volume was heavy. The gold shares and gold are in what looks like a free fall. We are at a level on the gold shares that would normally indicate a bottom and a buy. But I am going to continue to stay on the sidelines for now. I am going to let this week pass at the least. Oversold both short and medium term here. I'm being cautious and that's what happens with a lack of confidence. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. 2 days to go for the March option cycle and I will not be making any trades this week. Perhaps we will have one more run higher before the week ends. That's a guess as usual. GE's strength could mean that the rally still has legs. I'm going to wait for the May calls to open up for the gold shares. I think that perhaps near the end of the month could be the time to try that trade again. So it's a watching and waiting game for now.

The market took off today as we made new yearly highs in the Dow. The most watched index rose 218 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index should be moving back to the upside after today. The market was already 100 points higher before the Fed. We didn't do much after the Fed announcement but them rallied strongly again in the final hour. We're overbought now but that hasn't meant much in this bull run. The trend remains up as there seems to be plenty of capital to go around. GE gained 1/2 on good volume as we have finally broken through the top of the trading range there. It looks like we are on our way to the old highs at $21. Probably too late to get the calls there but I'll keep an eye on things. Gold fell $5 on the futures but another $25 in the aftermarket when the Fed announcement happened. Nobody wants gold now. The US dollar was higher today. The XAU was off 2/3. ABX down 1/4, GG off 1/2 and NEM fell 7/8. Volume was good. The overall stock indices are rallying and the gold shares are going nowhere. March is historically the worst month for the price of gold. The Gold/XAU ratio buy signal isn't working. I'll be looking at the May gold share calls when I think that gold has completely washed out. Should be towards the end of this month. Mentally I'm doing OK. My mind was so tied up with the gold shares and gold that I've missed this opportunity in the stock indexes. That is a fact. The losing trades weakened whatever confidence I did have. The mental capital is always the most important. I'll be keeping an eye on things but on the sidelines for now. The stock indices are once again moving higher and there is nothing in the way to change that for now.

A day of marking time as the Dow gained 37 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Waiting on the Fed I suppose as the outlook going forward for interest rates will be announced tomorrow. Technically we're more overbought than oversold on the stock indices. It is expiration week for the market. I'm on the sidelines for now as my confidence is shot and I have no real trading ideas. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. No trades for me there. Gold fell $10 on the futures today as the US dollar was a touch weaker. The XAU lost 2 2/3. ABX off 1/4, GG down 3/4 and NEM fell 1 1/8. Volume there was light to average. The Gold/XAU ratio just keeps becoming a stronger buy but the gold shares are not moving higher. I don't know what to make of that. I'll probably be trying the April or May gold share calls if we get a decent technical signal on the daily charts. Oversold to be sure here now but no rally. Again, I don't know what to make of it. I think that I'll let this week pass and check the May options when they come out. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired perhaps due to the time change. The S&P 500 is knocking on the door to new highs for the year. Perhaps we will get there after the Fed tomorrow. That's a guess as usual. I don't have any trading ideas for now. 4 days left in the March option cycle. I'll try my best to not do anything stupid. I rarely do anything good on the short term trades. I suppose it's time to sit back, study the charts and try to regain some confidence.

The employment report came and went as the Dow gained just 14 points on light volume. We were up over 50 during the session. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The job numbers were in line and the S&P 500 rallied back up to the resistance at around 1375 before backing off. We'll probably get through that level sometime next week. The summation index may turn back up today. GE was flat on light volume. Nothing new to report here. The technicals are not overbought or oversold. Gold had an interesting day as it opened lower on the employment report but then closed higher for a one day reversal. This occurred despite a huge rally in the US dollar. The precious metal gained about $13 on the futures. The XAU lost a point though. ABX and GG fell about 1/4, while NEM was little changed. I dumped the ABX calls for yet another loss. In fact as soon as I sold them ABX rallied and I could have cut the loss in half. But who knew that at the time? This was another trade that never showed a profit and my 3rd loss in a row for attempting the ABX calls. The loss was 70%. Despite the Gold/XAU ratio buy signal, the gold shares aren't rallying. That signal is just growing stronger. I don't know what to make of it along with both gold and the US dollar moving higher together. I might have to try the gold share calls for April because the technicals remain oversold. Or I might just sit things out for a while. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock indices look like they want to go to new recovery highs. With the usual positive bias of option expiration week, they should make it. My confidence is shot once again with another losing trade. It's all about the mental capital. You can't possibly be successful when you're in a trading funk. I'll have to somehow snap out of it because the markets aren't going to wait for me to feel better. But maybe when the usual reliable signals don't work, it's time to take a step back. I'll have to ponder things over the weekend and go from there. You've got to also have the ability to shake off losses and losing streaks. They are inevitable when playing this game. It isn't easy. It's now Friday afternoon and definitely time for a break.

Today looked like a repeat of yesterday as the Dow climbed 70 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. There was no follow through to Tuesdays heavy selling. The market has the feel of wanting to go to new recovery highs. Of course that could all change with tomorrows employment report but I doubt it. However my market thinking has been way off lately. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. We are moving up off of oversold technicals on a daily basis for GE. N0 trades in mind for GE at the moment. Gold was up today again as well, gaining $15 on the futures. We are back at $1700 for the yellow metal. Might see some resistance here for gold. The US dollar took a hit today as the worries over Greece subside for now. The XAU rose 2 1/4. ABX and NEM up 1/4 while GG gained 3/4. Volume was weak. I'm still holding the ABX calls at a loss as I have yet to have a chance to get out with a profit. That may not happen, depending on tomorrow. However the Gold/XAU ratio continues to be in the buy zone. The daily candlestick chart for ABX looks bullish and the technicals are oversold. Having a long gold share position here seems to be the correct choice but the market will go where it wants. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough once again. All eyes will be on tomorrows employment report. I have no idea what it will contain but watching the market reaction will be the key. The volatility has picked up this week. That is helping to keep up the pricing of the option premiums. The gold shares haven't kept up with the bounce in gold and the volume has been weak. That isn't bullish going forward. I'll need to take another hard look at the ABX calls tomorrow if they ever turn profitable and even if they don't. We'll see what happens overnight and wait for the employment report.

We got a snap back today as the Dow gained 78 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive. I don't think you can read too much into todays action. It was a light volume affair. The McClellan oscillator had gotten very negative and a bounce was warranted. Tomorrow should be a waiting for Fridays employment numbers session. No OEX trades in mind at the moment. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. That could bode well for the overall market going forward. Or not. GE is trying to hold up at its 50 day moving average on the daily charts. Gold was up over $10 today as the US dollar fell a bit. Another snap back here as well. The XAU was down almost 1/4. ABX was flat on the day, GG fell 1/4 and NEM off 1/2. I'm still holding the ABX calls and they are in the red. The gold shares never got going today like the overall stock indices. I never had a chance to exit the trade at break even or a profit. The daily chart on ABX is potentially putting in a bottom, with 2 bullish candlesticks. The Gold/XAU ratio is still flashing a buy signal. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept longer. So it looks like I'll be waiting for the employment report on Friday along with everyone else. I think the ABX trade could actually work out but the price action tomorrow will be important. I will probably dump the calls if they get back to a profit. The gold shares are still oversold and there is a Gold/XAU ratio buy signal. If that doesn't signal higher gold share prices coming, I don't know what does.

We finally got some downside today as the Dow registered its biggest loss of the year. We fell 203 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. The Greek worries are back for whatever reason. I think eventually we'll see a default there but that's just my opinion. My opinion hasn't meant much lately as whatever I thought was about to occur just hasn't happened. My market thinking is way off and that is costly. The McClellan oscillator is very blown out to the downside and I would expect some type of snap back for the indices. But I thought that yesterday as well. Not sure exactly what will happen near term so It's the sidelines with regards to the OEX. GE was down 3/8 and it was a gap down as well. Starting to break through to the downside from the congestion of the past 2 months. That isn't a bullish sign going forward. No trades planned for GE here as well. Gold got clobbered again as the US dollar rose on the flight to safety trade. The precious metal was down over $30 on the futures. The XAU dropped 4 points and it could have been worse. ABX and GG were both off a buck, while NEM fell 3/4. Volume was good. I left in an overnight order for some ABX calls and it was filled when we opened. Somehow, they are still priced right where I bought them. The Gold/XAU ratio buy signal is still in effect. That, combined with the oversold technicals on the gold shares was why I put this trade on. But the environment has changed and I will need to exit this trade quickly. Tomorrow if we get some kind of bounce. Only 8 days left in the March option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. It really looks like we have rolled over here for the stock indices and anything is possible. Volatility is back. I haven't had a handle on things market wise lately and that is dangerous for the trading account. My strategy at this point is to exit the ABX call trade as soon as possible and take to the sidelines. There may be a chance to try the OEX March calls at some point if we get completely oversold. However my ability to determine when that is has diminished. We'll see what happens overseas tonight and take it from there.

Tried to sell off today but the Dow only lost 14 points on light volume. We were down over 80 early. The advance/declines were negative. Summation index heading lower but I think we're in for a short term bounce. I could be wrong. The overall market remains weaker than the Dow. We've got the employment numbers on Friday and not much of significance before that. I may try the OEX calls if we actually get an oversold signal but it hasn't happened yet. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Almost made it to the 50 day moving average on the daily charts but I'm leaning towards another trade elsewhere. We've been moving sideways here since the year began. The Bollinger bands contracted and we have yet to see a breakout as expected. Gold dropped around 6 bucks today and the US dollar was a bit weaker as well. The XAU fell 4 1/3. ABX down 2/3, GG off about 1 1/4 and NEM shed a buck. Volume was average. The technicals on the gold shares are now short term oversold and the Gold/XAU ratio gave us a buy signal today. All signs point to attempting a gold share call trade here in the short term. I almost did it today but hesitated due to the recent 2 losing trades attempting this. I'm pretty sure that if I see some weakness in the gold shares tomorrow morning that I am going to try this trade again. GG lost some of its relative strength today so I may go with ABX again. I'll consider this tonight and go from there. Mentally I'm doing OK but didn't feel all that good this morning. I'm hearing a lot of chatter about how the market should be going down now. Which leads me to believe that we might just start heading back up again. March is generally a decent month for stocks. All signs point to trying the gold share calls here but today may have been the day to do it. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow morning if I'm going to try that trade again. It's hard to just follow the technicals sometimes when your confidence is low but that's what needs to be done. It would have to be a short term trade and those are not my best. We'll see what happens overnight and take it from there.

It was downer all day today although the Dow only fell 2 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Summation index still heading lower. Moving sideways now for major stock indices. The TRAN and the RUT have already rolled over. I'm not exactly sure what that means. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Perhaps a trade will be viable when it reaches the 50 day moving average on the daily charts. But I'm more inclined to look for the next trade elsewhere. We'll see. Gold fell over $10 on the futures today as the US dollar had a strong day. The dollar looks like it has turned around here and that won't be bullish for gold. The XAU dropped 3 1/3. ABX off about 2/3, GG fell 3/8 and NEM down 3/4. Volume was light. Not completely oversold on the gold shares yet and there isn't a Gold/XAU buy signal. GG continues to show very good relative strength even when the gold shares are falling. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I still don't really have a good trading idea with two weeks left in the March option cycle. There isn't a decent signal one way or the other right now for the stock indices in my opinion. Hopefully that will change. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with some type of game plan going forward. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A bounce back today as the Dow gained 28 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Still a negative divergence on the RSI for the stock indices but no meaningful decline yet. Perhaps todays action was dictated by the beginning of the month money flows. I suppose I will continue to look for higher prices going into the March expiration. I would like to try the OEX March calls but not without some downside first. GE was flat on light volume. Still a sideways affair here. I'm looking elsewhere for a trade. Gold had a slight bounce back after yesterdays debacle. It gained $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished near unchanged today. The XAU rose 2 points. ABX up 1/3, GG gained a buck and NEM tacked on 1/4. Volume was average. We've blown out to the downside in gold. It will probably take a while to build a base and recover or we will continue lower. I'm willing to try the April or May gold share calls eventually but patience for now will be required. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes continue to grind higher. It has been an incredible run and there seems to be no end to it. But it will end at some point. When that is, is anybodies guess. I don't have any good set ups right now and I have no solid trade ideas either. I'm going to have to stay on the sidelines until some type of signal one way or the other develops. The losing ABX trade is history and moving ahead is the proper course of action. I will try and not let the loss affect my trading going forward.