Monday, March 05, 2012
Tried to sell off today but the Dow only lost 14 points on light volume. We were down over 80 early. The advance/declines were negative. Summation index heading lower but I think we're in for a short term bounce. I could be wrong. The overall market remains weaker than the Dow. We've got the employment numbers on Friday and not much of significance before that. I may try the OEX calls if we actually get an oversold signal but it hasn't happened yet. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Almost made it to the 50 day moving average on the daily charts but I'm leaning towards another trade elsewhere. We've been moving sideways here since the year began. The Bollinger bands contracted and we have yet to see a breakout as expected. Gold dropped around 6 bucks today and the US dollar was a bit weaker as well. The XAU fell 4 1/3. ABX down 2/3, GG off about 1 1/4 and NEM shed a buck. Volume was average. The technicals on the gold shares are now short term oversold and the Gold/XAU ratio gave us a buy signal today. All signs point to attempting a gold share call trade here in the short term. I almost did it today but hesitated due to the recent 2 losing trades attempting this. I'm pretty sure that if I see some weakness in the gold shares tomorrow morning that I am going to try this trade again. GG lost some of its relative strength today so I may go with ABX again. I'll consider this tonight and go from there. Mentally I'm doing OK but didn't feel all that good this morning. I'm hearing a lot of chatter about how the market should be going down now. Which leads me to believe that we might just start heading back up again. March is generally a decent month for stocks. All signs point to trying the gold share calls here but today may have been the day to do it. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow morning if I'm going to try that trade again. It's hard to just follow the technicals sometimes when your confidence is low but that's what needs to be done. It would have to be a short term trade and those are not my best. We'll see what happens overnight and take it from there.
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