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Tuesday, March 06, 2012

We finally got some downside today as the Dow registered its biggest loss of the year. We fell 203 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. The Greek worries are back for whatever reason. I think eventually we'll see a default there but that's just my opinion. My opinion hasn't meant much lately as whatever I thought was about to occur just hasn't happened. My market thinking is way off and that is costly. The McClellan oscillator is very blown out to the downside and I would expect some type of snap back for the indices. But I thought that yesterday as well. Not sure exactly what will happen near term so It's the sidelines with regards to the OEX. GE was down 3/8 and it was a gap down as well. Starting to break through to the downside from the congestion of the past 2 months. That isn't a bullish sign going forward. No trades planned for GE here as well. Gold got clobbered again as the US dollar rose on the flight to safety trade. The precious metal was down over $30 on the futures. The XAU dropped 4 points and it could have been worse. ABX and GG were both off a buck, while NEM fell 3/4. Volume was good. I left in an overnight order for some ABX calls and it was filled when we opened. Somehow, they are still priced right where I bought them. The Gold/XAU ratio buy signal is still in effect. That, combined with the oversold technicals on the gold shares was why I put this trade on. But the environment has changed and I will need to exit this trade quickly. Tomorrow if we get some kind of bounce. Only 8 days left in the March option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. It really looks like we have rolled over here for the stock indices and anything is possible. Volatility is back. I haven't had a handle on things market wise lately and that is dangerous for the trading account. My strategy at this point is to exit the ABX call trade as soon as possible and take to the sidelines. There may be a chance to try the OEX March calls at some point if we get completely oversold. However my ability to determine when that is has diminished. We'll see what happens overseas tonight and take it from there.

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