Tuesday, March 20, 2012
A bit of downside today as the Dow fell 69 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We are still overbought and really need more downside than just today. The market was down more earlier but every hint of a decline is being bought. That will not last forever. The summation index is heading lower now. Perhaps we will now see some type of extended move lower. Or not. GE fell 1/8 on light volume. If the May 20 calls get into the price zone that I'm looking for, I'll buy them. They're not there yet. One day does not make a trend. If we work off the short term overbought condition here, the premiums might come down to my buy level. Time will tell. Gold fell again today, off $20 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight gain. The XAU however rose 3/4, which is the first time in a long time that the gold shares have outperformed the precious metal. I think the gold shares are at a short term bottom. ABX, GG and NEM were all up 1/8 after being lower early. Volume was good. I am going to try a short term ABX call trade. I have left in an open order for the April 45 calls in case we see some weakness tomorrow morning. There is a positive divergence on the daily RSI indicator. Todays price action was bullish for ABX and we still have a screaming buy from the Gold/XAU ratio. This trade may be too late though if we simply continue to move higher from here. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll have to see if we get any follow through downside with the stock indices tomorrow. The overall market still remains stronger than the Dow and that is usually bullish going forward. I'm trying the gold share calls again here. I could be wrong and I'm still looking to go out to May with this trade idea as well. Another factor for attempting a short term trade here is the distance that ABX has moved below its 50 day moving average. My thinking is that the price will now start to move back towards that line. We'll see.
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