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Monday, April 23, 2012

A negative start to the week as the Dow fell 102 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The stock indexes started the day with a huge decline at the open and never really recovered.  The summation index continues lower.  I'm not sure what is going on here but the weak volume isn't a positive.  Perhaps we are simply marking time until the Fed announcement.  Getting short term oversold on the daily charts but we aren't there yet.  GE had a gap to the downside and finished off 1/3 on light volume.  No trades in mind here but I am starting to consider going out to the July calls.  There is no hurry though.  Gold fell $10 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU fell 3 points but was lower early.  ABX off 5/8, GG fell 1 1/3 and NEM dropped a buck.  Volume was heavy here.  My ABX May calls are still very much in the red and this trade is looking like a big loser.  That said, todays action seems like a washout to the downside.  The daily candlestick chart for ABX appears to have formed a hammer or star today.  I'm leaving in an overnight order for some more ABX calls at a lower strike price.  This isn't something that I would normally do but unless the stock indices and gold simply collapse here, it looks like a bottom for the gold shares.  The Gold/XAU ratio is the highest that I've seen it in years.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We're still in a sideways consolidation on the daily charts for the S&P 500.  Plenty of economic data this week so perhaps we will break out one way or the other.  I've been a believer in the gold shares here and so far that is not working out.  If we don't see some upside this week I'll probably just have to take my losses and move on.  Waiting on the Wednesday Fed announcement.  

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