Friday, May 04, 2012
It was an employment downer as the Dow fell 168 points on a weaker jobs number. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. The summation index is back to moving lower. Some of the daily charts on the stock indexes have potential head and shoulders tops on them. If they break the necklines, things could get ugly really fast. That has yet to happen. I thought prices would continue higher for the stock indices but whatever I've been thinking lately has been wrong. We will have to wait and see what happens on Monday. Todays developments were anything but positive. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. Still in a range and no trades for me there. Gold held up pretty well despite a rise in the US dollar. The precious metal futures gained $10. The dollar rose despite the weak jobs report as the troubles in Europe are back in the trading picture. Perhaps gold will be perceived as a safe haven again. Todays gains didn't help the gold shares as the XAU ended flat. ABX off 1/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM rose 1/2. Volume was average. I sold most of my position in the May ABX calls for a 95% loss. I held on to the later lower strike price calls. I will probably sell them next week. Just trying to cut the loss there if we see some strength in gold early next week. Gold has been moving sideways for 2 months but the gold shares have tanked within the same time period. Building a position in the May ABX calls was obviously the wrong move and lack of discipline just compounded the mistake. I'll have to put it behind me and move on. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. I think it will be interesting to see how Monday turns out after todays decline in the stock market. I'm not exactly sure what is going on in Europe besides the election in France but we'll have to just wait and see. The weekly technicals for the stock indexes have rolled over. Gold has been dead money for a while. Perhaps that will change if we get a good dose of fear. It won't matter for the May calls that I had. That was one of the all time worst trades I've ever done and I will probably need some time to recover. Confidence is gone. My mental capital has dried up. But I'll still be checking the charts over the weekend and continue to do the work necessary to lead up to the next trade. Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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