Monday, May 14, 2012
We appear to be starting another leg down as the Dow fell 125 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. Summation index heading lower. Oversold and staying there. No interest in buying stocks at the moment. Expiration week and it could get volatile. I'm on the sidelines with no OEX trades in mind. We should have had some kind of decent bounce by now. I think it's time to be careful on the long side. GE dropped 3/8 on average volume. The same holds true here. It looks like we are heading lower. I'm not considering the July calls anymore. Gold fell again, off by over $20 on the futures as the rally in the US dollar continues. Gold is not getting the same flight to safety money inflows as the US dollar is here. Commodities are dropping. The XAU 4 points. ABX down 1/2, GG lower by 1 1/3 and NEM lost 2/3. Volume was average. The gold shares continue to be beaten up and there is no end in sight. Considering the last horrible ABX call trade, I have no idea as to when to try the gold shares on the long side again. Same very oversold and no bounce scenario. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It looks like we're breaking the necklines on the stock indices. That means lower prices ahead. No upside bias to expiration week yet. However we could go lower in a hurry. It's a time to rather be safe than sorry. Gold continues lower. It looks like things are being liquidated for whatever reason. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
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