Friday, May 18, 2012
We closed out the week with yet another down day as the Dow fell 73 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Even option expiration week couldn't help this market to even bounce. We are at an area technically that it is a surprise that we haven't just collapsed. The McClellan oscillator is very oversold and staying there. The summation index is heading lower and we are about to pass through the zero line. I would still be very cautious here. Some indices appear to be in free fall. TRAN is in a rapid decline despite the drop in oil. There's something going on here under the surface and I certainly don't know what it is. GE was flat on the day and the volume was good. I'm still looking at the July calls but I'm in no hurry. Gold was higher again, this time up $17 on the futures. It was a good week for gold. The US dollar was lower today for it's first real loss in 3 weeks. The XAU was flat on the day after being much higher early. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on good volume. These issues also opened much higher and sold off for the remainder of the trading day. I may try the June calls here if we sell off into this weeks lows again with a higher RSI reading. Or not. I will have to look at the charts over the weekend. There is also the possibility that what we saw in gold and the gold shares this week is simply a dead cat bounce. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It seems like the stock indexes have been moving in a straight line down since the beginning of May. We are in a dangerous place technically that should resolve itself in a hurry. As I said, I'm surprised that we haven't fallen further and faster. There are no buyers. Next week should be interesting. Gold finally found a bid and we will have to see if that is for real. If the stock market continues to be shaky though, I'd expect more money to flow into the US dollar. We'll see. There's always the chance of some unexpected developments out of Europe as well. That's it for this week.
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