Digesting yesterdays gains today as the Dow fell 44 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Not exactly sure where we go from here but I am still looking for higher prices. The stock indexes kind of fell apart in the last hour and that usually means lower prices ahead. End of the month on Friday as well. The summation index is moving sideways. GE was flat on the day with light volume as well. I'm still waiting on the May calls here as the price hasn't reached the level that I'd like to purchase just yet. Patience is required and there is no hurry for now. Gold was off a touch on the futures and fell $5 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was bit higher today and is trying to hold an upside trend line on the daily charts that has been in effect since November. If it holds we'll see a rally in the dollar and that would not be positive for gold. If it doesn't hold than the opposite should occur. The XAU fell 2 1/2. ABX off 2/3, GG lost 1/2 and NEM lower by a buck. When the stock market continued to drop in the final hour, I dumped the ABX calls. The profit was 45%. I needed to have a winning trade and I at least accomplished that but the profit could have been better. I still like this trade and will probably put in an overnight order to buy these again. Or perhaps go out to May, which is the preferred idea. The Gold/XAU ratio remains solidly in the bullish buy zone which leads me to believe the gold shares calls will work again. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We'll have to see if there is any follow through downside for the stock indices tomorrow morning. Still overbought on the technicals. I'll be keeping an eye on the gold shares for follow through to the downside as well. Perhaps will try the April calls again this week. Not much else to report for now.

We started the last week of March with a bang as the Dow gained 160 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index back to the upside. Big Ben Bernanke said the US would keep interest rates low. This isn't new news. However the market will go where it wants. Still overbought and still moving higher. It's a broken record but you cannot fight it. There were no sellers today. Plenty of liquidity it seems. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. I'm still looking at the May calls here if the price gets to what I'd like to pay for them. May not happen at this rate. No hurry here as GE is usually a pretty slow mover. Gold had another good day as the US dollar was weaker. The gold futures were up $23 and gained some more in the aftermarket. The XAU only rose 2 3/4 though. ABX gained 3/4, GG up 1 1/8 and NEM managed only an 1/8 higher. Volume was nothing special. My April ABX calls are solidly in the black. Both the daily and weekly charts look constructive now here but I would still like to try the May calls. However once again the relative strength is with GG, as the options there have appreciated much better than ABX here. But my focus is on the April ABX calls since that is the position that I've taken. The Gold/XAU ratio remains in the bullish buy zone. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough but still on the back-up computer. The stock indices continue to the upside with no end in sight for the rally. There is no technical damage to say that the rally is going to end. Looking for calls to purchase remains a winning strategy. You cannot fight the trend, the tape or the Fed. Once again gold is moving higher and the gold shares are lagging. That usually isn't bullish going forward but the gold share charts are looking bullish at the moment. We'll see what happens in the overseas market and go from there.

A slight bounce to close out the week as the Dow gained 34 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues heading lower. The technicals for the stock indices have rolled over but they are still overbought. We will have to see if this recent decline is bought as all the previous declines have been. Still 4 weeks to go in the April option series. I have no OEX trades in mind but I still have to be looking for higher prices going forward. I could be wrong. GE was flat on the day and the volume was very light. I am still looking to be a buyer of the May 20 calls at the right price. My thinking is that this trade should be put on before the mid-April earnings announcement. Preferably with oversold technicals. Gold had a good day for a change as it rose about $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower yet again. Interest rates in the US have risen in the past couple of weeks yet the dollar fell. This is not the normal expectation. I do not know the reasons. The XAU gained 2 7/7. ABX up 2/3, GG rose 3/4 and NEM higher by 7/8. Volume was light to average. My ABX April calls are in the black. I should probably be selling these next week but we will have to see what happens. I really do need a winning trade though, just for the confidence factor. However I don't want to sell too early either. The game is never easy. Mentally I'm doing the best I can considering my computer problems and moving onto the back-up. Like anything else you just have to make the adjustments and keep on moving. End of the month coming next week. I'll be keeping an eye on GE for a possible entry point for the May calls. Plenty of economic data to digest as well. I'll need to come up with a solid game plan for the ABX call trade. Checking all the charts on various time frames must be done as well. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower once again as the Dow fell 78 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Summation index heading lower. Is this the beginning of a long awaited multi-week correction? I certainly don't know. Perhaps we'll move down to the 50 day moving average on the stock indices. Or not. All of the recent declines during this rally have been bought so far. There's no reason to think that now is any different. GE was off about 1/4 on average volume. The technicals appear to be rolling over here. Perhaps there will be an opportunity to purchase the May 20 calls at a decent price. I'm still considering that trade. I'll probably be looking at a move down to the 50 day moving average here as well. Gold lost $7 on the futures but were lower during the session. The US dollar gained a bit today. The XAU fell 3 1/2 and was weaker than the precious metal again. ABX off 1/2, GG down 1/4 and NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was light to average. I modified lower my open order for the ABX April calls last night and it was filled in the morning. They are slightly positive here at the close. I'm still thinking that this trade will work but I don't plan on holding it that long. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing as best that I can. Computer problems occurred today and I may have to buy another computer over the weekend. I'm on the back-up computer and it is not the same as regular trading operations. But the markets move on. We'll have to see how the week ends tomorrow as it seems that buyers have moved to the sidelines for now. The technicals on the stock indices have started to roll over. The next trade has begun. I'm expecting some type of bounce for the gold shares here but there's always the possibility that we just keep heading lower. The gold shares remain oversold on the technicals and the Gold/XAU ratio remains solidly in the buy zone. That hasn't mattered for some time now but it will. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

2 down sessions in a row as the Dow fell 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were just about even. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again. Despite the lower prices we're still short term overbought. It seems like we are simply meandering around in the stock indices this week so far. Not a lot of economic data out to drive prices. I don't expect any major decline to be in the works but what do I know? Summation index still heading lower. GE was flat today on average volume. I'm still considering the May 20 calls there at the price I'm willing to pay. Gold was up a few bucks today but closed off of its highs. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU was flat on the day. ABX and GG were off about 1/8, while NEM fell 1/2. Volume was average. I still have the open order in for the ABX April calls but I may cancel it tonight. I'm still considering the May calls there as well. Feels like the gold shares are trying to make a stand here at 175 on the XAU. If we don't hold here, gold and the gold shares will be heading much lower. My thinking is that this level will hold and we'll see some type of multi-week rally. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. A couple days to the downside in the stock indexes but no real technical damage. I'm guessing the rest of the week will be relatively quiet. Not much else to report today.

A bit of downside today as the Dow fell 69 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We are still overbought and really need more downside than just today. The market was down more earlier but every hint of a decline is being bought. That will not last forever. The summation index is heading lower now. Perhaps we will now see some type of extended move lower. Or not. GE fell 1/8 on light volume. If the May 20 calls get into the price zone that I'm looking for, I'll buy them. They're not there yet. One day does not make a trend. If we work off the short term overbought condition here, the premiums might come down to my buy level. Time will tell. Gold fell again today, off $20 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight gain. The XAU however rose 3/4, which is the first time in a long time that the gold shares have outperformed the precious metal. I think the gold shares are at a short term bottom. ABX, GG and NEM were all up 1/8 after being lower early. Volume was good. I am going to try a short term ABX call trade. I have left in an open order for the April 45 calls in case we see some weakness tomorrow morning. There is a positive divergence on the daily RSI indicator. Todays price action was bullish for ABX and we still have a screaming buy from the Gold/XAU ratio. This trade may be too late though if we simply continue to move higher from here. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll have to see if we get any follow through downside with the stock indices tomorrow. The overall market still remains stronger than the Dow and that is usually bullish going forward. I'm trying the gold share calls again here. I could be wrong and I'm still looking to go out to May with this trade idea as well. Another factor for attempting a short term trade here is the distance that ABX has moved below its 50 day moving average. My thinking is that the price will now start to move back towards that line. We'll see.

Just another day in the marketplace as the Dow rose 6 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. Both short and medium term overbought here and I would expect some type of pullback pretty soon here. But the market will go where it wants and we could stay overbought as we have in the last few months as the stock indices grinded higher. But I would not be surprised by some weakness near term. GE was off a touch on light volume. I am going to try the May 20 calls here if they get to a price that I'm looking for. That is one of the ideas I am looking at going forward. Overbought here as well, so perhaps I'll get a chance to purchase the calls this week. We'll see. Gold was up $11 on the futures but pulled back from there in the aftermarket. The US dollar was lower again today. Not exactly sure what is going on with the dollar here but it hasn't led to any kind of rally in gold really. That generally isn't bullish for gold. The XAU lost 1/3 after being higher early. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses of 1/4 or less on average volume. I think we may get one more washout downdraft in the gold shares and I will be looking at the May calls if that occurs. That's a guess as usual. The gold shares are still oversold and staying there. The stock market is rallying and there is not any interest in the gold shares. The Gold/XAU ratio remains in a strong buy signal and nothing is happening. We are getting to be at about the most bearish that it can get for gold. That is probably when you want to step in. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Nothing has changed since the last trading session. Moving higher in an overbought environment for the stock indexes. The trend remains up. It will end at some point but trying to pick that point right now is impossible in my mind. I'll be looking for some calls on a dip. March is typically the worst month for the price of gold and that is the case so far this month. Patience is required here to get long again.

Not much action for expiration Friday as the Dow fell 20 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. Pretty overbought on the short term here and I would expect weakness at some point early in the new week. Perhaps that will bring an entry point for some calls. The trend for the stock indices remains up. A lot of housing data out next week but that's about it. GE was up a touch today and the volume remains strong. I'm now considering the May calls here if we get a pullback. I think GE has more room to the upside and it has yet to take out its recovery high at about $21. The May 20 calls could be the next trade. Gold didn't do much today, off about $3 on the futures. This despite another down day for the US dollar. The interest in owning gold has waned. The XAU was off 1/3. The gold shares were mixed again. ABX up 1/8, GG off 1/3 and NEM rose 1/8. Volume was extremely heavy here. I'm guessing that is was option expiration related. This really looks to me like a place to try the gold shares again but the recent losses that I've taken here are making me hesitate. Not to mention that the dollar has taken quite a hit in the past 2 sessions and gold hasn't really done anything. I'll consider things over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The stock indexes continue to rally. Nothing seems to be in the way of that. Any dips are being bought. Until that changes, calls are the only way to go. Option premiums will be priced a bit higher for April due to the extra week involved. I'll be going over all the charts over the weekend trying to find the next opportunity. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The positive expiration week bias continues as the Dow gained 58 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The trend remains up until further notice. Overbought and staying there. The volume has been good on the recent rise to new highs. That would imply even higher prices yet to come. Pullbacks can still be purchased in my opinion. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. The chance to get the calls here may have passed. But like the stock indices, pullbacks can be bought. We haven't set new recovery highs here yet. Gold bounced back around $15 on the futures today as the US dollar lost some ground. The XAU was up 1/2. The gold shares were mixed. ABX gained 1/2, GG was flat and NEM off 1/2. Volume remains pretty good here. I'll be considering the May gold share calls if we get a signal but patience is probably the best course of action at this time. The Gold/XAU ratio remains a strong buy but that signal hasn't been working in this gold sell off. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying not to force a trade here. The stock indices remain strong and usually will go higher than most traders think. We are on the cusp of the April option cycle. There is an extra week for the April options, so the premiums will be higher than usual. I suppose there is no rush. We'll see how the week finishes tomorrow.

Digesting yesterdays huge gains would describe todays market action as the Dow gained 16 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative though. The summation index did turn back to the upside yesterday. Still short term overbought on the stock indices. I have no trades in mind here. GE was up 1/4 on good volume again. We've broken out from the congestion zone. If we get a pullback towards the zone, I may try the April calls there. I do not want to chase things here, so patience is advised. If a pullback happens I'll consider the trade. Gold got clobbered again today, off $50. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 6 1/3. ABX down 2 bucks, GG lost 1 1/2 and NEM fell 1/2. Volume was heavy. The gold shares and gold are in what looks like a free fall. We are at a level on the gold shares that would normally indicate a bottom and a buy. But I am going to continue to stay on the sidelines for now. I am going to let this week pass at the least. Oversold both short and medium term here. I'm being cautious and that's what happens with a lack of confidence. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. 2 days to go for the March option cycle and I will not be making any trades this week. Perhaps we will have one more run higher before the week ends. That's a guess as usual. GE's strength could mean that the rally still has legs. I'm going to wait for the May calls to open up for the gold shares. I think that perhaps near the end of the month could be the time to try that trade again. So it's a watching and waiting game for now.

The market took off today as we made new yearly highs in the Dow. The most watched index rose 218 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index should be moving back to the upside after today. The market was already 100 points higher before the Fed. We didn't do much after the Fed announcement but them rallied strongly again in the final hour. We're overbought now but that hasn't meant much in this bull run. The trend remains up as there seems to be plenty of capital to go around. GE gained 1/2 on good volume as we have finally broken through the top of the trading range there. It looks like we are on our way to the old highs at $21. Probably too late to get the calls there but I'll keep an eye on things. Gold fell $5 on the futures but another $25 in the aftermarket when the Fed announcement happened. Nobody wants gold now. The US dollar was higher today. The XAU was off 2/3. ABX down 1/4, GG off 1/2 and NEM fell 7/8. Volume was good. The overall stock indices are rallying and the gold shares are going nowhere. March is historically the worst month for the price of gold. The Gold/XAU ratio buy signal isn't working. I'll be looking at the May gold share calls when I think that gold has completely washed out. Should be towards the end of this month. Mentally I'm doing OK. My mind was so tied up with the gold shares and gold that I've missed this opportunity in the stock indexes. That is a fact. The losing trades weakened whatever confidence I did have. The mental capital is always the most important. I'll be keeping an eye on things but on the sidelines for now. The stock indices are once again moving higher and there is nothing in the way to change that for now.

A day of marking time as the Dow gained 37 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Waiting on the Fed I suppose as the outlook going forward for interest rates will be announced tomorrow. Technically we're more overbought than oversold on the stock indices. It is expiration week for the market. I'm on the sidelines for now as my confidence is shot and I have no real trading ideas. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. No trades for me there. Gold fell $10 on the futures today as the US dollar was a touch weaker. The XAU lost 2 2/3. ABX off 1/4, GG down 3/4 and NEM fell 1 1/8. Volume there was light to average. The Gold/XAU ratio just keeps becoming a stronger buy but the gold shares are not moving higher. I don't know what to make of that. I'll probably be trying the April or May gold share calls if we get a decent technical signal on the daily charts. Oversold to be sure here now but no rally. Again, I don't know what to make of it. I think that I'll let this week pass and check the May options when they come out. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired perhaps due to the time change. The S&P 500 is knocking on the door to new highs for the year. Perhaps we will get there after the Fed tomorrow. That's a guess as usual. I don't have any trading ideas for now. 4 days left in the March option cycle. I'll try my best to not do anything stupid. I rarely do anything good on the short term trades. I suppose it's time to sit back, study the charts and try to regain some confidence.

The employment report came and went as the Dow gained just 14 points on light volume. We were up over 50 during the session. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The job numbers were in line and the S&P 500 rallied back up to the resistance at around 1375 before backing off. We'll probably get through that level sometime next week. The summation index may turn back up today. GE was flat on light volume. Nothing new to report here. The technicals are not overbought or oversold. Gold had an interesting day as it opened lower on the employment report but then closed higher for a one day reversal. This occurred despite a huge rally in the US dollar. The precious metal gained about $13 on the futures. The XAU lost a point though. ABX and GG fell about 1/4, while NEM was little changed. I dumped the ABX calls for yet another loss. In fact as soon as I sold them ABX rallied and I could have cut the loss in half. But who knew that at the time? This was another trade that never showed a profit and my 3rd loss in a row for attempting the ABX calls. The loss was 70%. Despite the Gold/XAU ratio buy signal, the gold shares aren't rallying. That signal is just growing stronger. I don't know what to make of it along with both gold and the US dollar moving higher together. I might have to try the gold share calls for April because the technicals remain oversold. Or I might just sit things out for a while. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock indices look like they want to go to new recovery highs. With the usual positive bias of option expiration week, they should make it. My confidence is shot once again with another losing trade. It's all about the mental capital. You can't possibly be successful when you're in a trading funk. I'll have to somehow snap out of it because the markets aren't going to wait for me to feel better. But maybe when the usual reliable signals don't work, it's time to take a step back. I'll have to ponder things over the weekend and go from there. You've got to also have the ability to shake off losses and losing streaks. They are inevitable when playing this game. It isn't easy. It's now Friday afternoon and definitely time for a break.

Today looked like a repeat of yesterday as the Dow climbed 70 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. There was no follow through to Tuesdays heavy selling. The market has the feel of wanting to go to new recovery highs. Of course that could all change with tomorrows employment report but I doubt it. However my market thinking has been way off lately. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. We are moving up off of oversold technicals on a daily basis for GE. N0 trades in mind for GE at the moment. Gold was up today again as well, gaining $15 on the futures. We are back at $1700 for the yellow metal. Might see some resistance here for gold. The US dollar took a hit today as the worries over Greece subside for now. The XAU rose 2 1/4. ABX and NEM up 1/4 while GG gained 3/4. Volume was weak. I'm still holding the ABX calls at a loss as I have yet to have a chance to get out with a profit. That may not happen, depending on tomorrow. However the Gold/XAU ratio continues to be in the buy zone. The daily candlestick chart for ABX looks bullish and the technicals are oversold. Having a long gold share position here seems to be the correct choice but the market will go where it wants. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough once again. All eyes will be on tomorrows employment report. I have no idea what it will contain but watching the market reaction will be the key. The volatility has picked up this week. That is helping to keep up the pricing of the option premiums. The gold shares haven't kept up with the bounce in gold and the volume has been weak. That isn't bullish going forward. I'll need to take another hard look at the ABX calls tomorrow if they ever turn profitable and even if they don't. We'll see what happens overnight and wait for the employment report.

We got a snap back today as the Dow gained 78 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive. I don't think you can read too much into todays action. It was a light volume affair. The McClellan oscillator had gotten very negative and a bounce was warranted. Tomorrow should be a waiting for Fridays employment numbers session. No OEX trades in mind at the moment. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. That could bode well for the overall market going forward. Or not. GE is trying to hold up at its 50 day moving average on the daily charts. Gold was up over $10 today as the US dollar fell a bit. Another snap back here as well. The XAU was down almost 1/4. ABX was flat on the day, GG fell 1/4 and NEM off 1/2. I'm still holding the ABX calls and they are in the red. The gold shares never got going today like the overall stock indices. I never had a chance to exit the trade at break even or a profit. The daily chart on ABX is potentially putting in a bottom, with 2 bullish candlesticks. The Gold/XAU ratio is still flashing a buy signal. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept longer. So it looks like I'll be waiting for the employment report on Friday along with everyone else. I think the ABX trade could actually work out but the price action tomorrow will be important. I will probably dump the calls if they get back to a profit. The gold shares are still oversold and there is a Gold/XAU ratio buy signal. If that doesn't signal higher gold share prices coming, I don't know what does.

We finally got some downside today as the Dow registered its biggest loss of the year. We fell 203 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. The Greek worries are back for whatever reason. I think eventually we'll see a default there but that's just my opinion. My opinion hasn't meant much lately as whatever I thought was about to occur just hasn't happened. My market thinking is way off and that is costly. The McClellan oscillator is very blown out to the downside and I would expect some type of snap back for the indices. But I thought that yesterday as well. Not sure exactly what will happen near term so It's the sidelines with regards to the OEX. GE was down 3/8 and it was a gap down as well. Starting to break through to the downside from the congestion of the past 2 months. That isn't a bullish sign going forward. No trades planned for GE here as well. Gold got clobbered again as the US dollar rose on the flight to safety trade. The precious metal was down over $30 on the futures. The XAU dropped 4 points and it could have been worse. ABX and GG were both off a buck, while NEM fell 3/4. Volume was good. I left in an overnight order for some ABX calls and it was filled when we opened. Somehow, they are still priced right where I bought them. The Gold/XAU ratio buy signal is still in effect. That, combined with the oversold technicals on the gold shares was why I put this trade on. But the environment has changed and I will need to exit this trade quickly. Tomorrow if we get some kind of bounce. Only 8 days left in the March option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. It really looks like we have rolled over here for the stock indices and anything is possible. Volatility is back. I haven't had a handle on things market wise lately and that is dangerous for the trading account. My strategy at this point is to exit the ABX call trade as soon as possible and take to the sidelines. There may be a chance to try the OEX March calls at some point if we get completely oversold. However my ability to determine when that is has diminished. We'll see what happens overseas tonight and take it from there.

Tried to sell off today but the Dow only lost 14 points on light volume. We were down over 80 early. The advance/declines were negative. Summation index heading lower but I think we're in for a short term bounce. I could be wrong. The overall market remains weaker than the Dow. We've got the employment numbers on Friday and not much of significance before that. I may try the OEX calls if we actually get an oversold signal but it hasn't happened yet. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Almost made it to the 50 day moving average on the daily charts but I'm leaning towards another trade elsewhere. We've been moving sideways here since the year began. The Bollinger bands contracted and we have yet to see a breakout as expected. Gold dropped around 6 bucks today and the US dollar was a bit weaker as well. The XAU fell 4 1/3. ABX down 2/3, GG off about 1 1/4 and NEM shed a buck. Volume was average. The technicals on the gold shares are now short term oversold and the Gold/XAU ratio gave us a buy signal today. All signs point to attempting a gold share call trade here in the short term. I almost did it today but hesitated due to the recent 2 losing trades attempting this. I'm pretty sure that if I see some weakness in the gold shares tomorrow morning that I am going to try this trade again. GG lost some of its relative strength today so I may go with ABX again. I'll consider this tonight and go from there. Mentally I'm doing OK but didn't feel all that good this morning. I'm hearing a lot of chatter about how the market should be going down now. Which leads me to believe that we might just start heading back up again. March is generally a decent month for stocks. All signs point to trying the gold share calls here but today may have been the day to do it. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow morning if I'm going to try that trade again. It's hard to just follow the technicals sometimes when your confidence is low but that's what needs to be done. It would have to be a short term trade and those are not my best. We'll see what happens overnight and take it from there.

It was downer all day today although the Dow only fell 2 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Summation index still heading lower. Moving sideways now for major stock indices. The TRAN and the RUT have already rolled over. I'm not exactly sure what that means. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Perhaps a trade will be viable when it reaches the 50 day moving average on the daily charts. But I'm more inclined to look for the next trade elsewhere. We'll see. Gold fell over $10 on the futures today as the US dollar had a strong day. The dollar looks like it has turned around here and that won't be bullish for gold. The XAU dropped 3 1/3. ABX off about 2/3, GG fell 3/8 and NEM down 3/4. Volume was light. Not completely oversold on the gold shares yet and there isn't a Gold/XAU buy signal. GG continues to show very good relative strength even when the gold shares are falling. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I still don't really have a good trading idea with two weeks left in the March option cycle. There isn't a decent signal one way or the other right now for the stock indices in my opinion. Hopefully that will change. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with some type of game plan going forward. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A bounce back today as the Dow gained 28 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Still a negative divergence on the RSI for the stock indices but no meaningful decline yet. Perhaps todays action was dictated by the beginning of the month money flows. I suppose I will continue to look for higher prices going into the March expiration. I would like to try the OEX March calls but not without some downside first. GE was flat on light volume. Still a sideways affair here. I'm looking elsewhere for a trade. Gold had a slight bounce back after yesterdays debacle. It gained $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished near unchanged today. The XAU rose 2 points. ABX up 1/3, GG gained a buck and NEM tacked on 1/4. Volume was average. We've blown out to the downside in gold. It will probably take a while to build a base and recover or we will continue lower. I'm willing to try the April or May gold share calls eventually but patience for now will be required. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes continue to grind higher. It has been an incredible run and there seems to be no end to it. But it will end at some point. When that is, is anybodies guess. I don't have any good set ups right now and I have no solid trade ideas either. I'm going to have to stay on the sidelines until some type of signal one way or the other develops. The losing ABX trade is history and moving ahead is the proper course of action. I will try and not let the loss affect my trading going forward.

Some downside today on the comments from Ben Bernanke as the Dow fell 53 points on better volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Summation index now falling to the downside. We also have a negative divergence on the RSI for the S&P 500. So perhaps this is the start of something more to the downside than we've seen since the rally started back in December. I'm not totally convinced of that but we'll see what transpires as we move forward. I am now looking at perhaps the OEX calls for March but not just yet. GE fell 1/8 on average volume. We've been moving sideways for two months now. I am no longer considering the March calls here. I will opt to try the OEX if we get an oversold signal on the overall market. Gold was really the story of the day as far as I'm concerned as it got clobbered on the Bernanke babble. The yellow metal fell about $75 on the futures and another $15 in the aftermarket. The US dollar rallied on the Fed chairmans comments. The XAU dropped 6 2/3. ABX down 1 3/4, GG fell 1 1/2 and NEM off by 2 1/2. Volume was heavy. I dumped the ABX calls that I had for a 25% loss. Interestingly enough they were still showing a profit in the first half hour. However I did not have a stop loss order in place and then hesitated to sell since we were so close to breaking out above $50. But the markets will go where they want and adjustments must be made. I was too slow today. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept more. Another trade and another loss. Not good for the confidence level but you've got to keep moving on. Beginning of the month on tap tomorrow. With the negative RSI divergence on the stock indices, I'll most likely be on the sidelines until we get oversold. Which hasn't happened in quite some time. I will also have to let gold settle down before I place another trade there. With March being historically a poor month for the price of gold it seems to be the prudent course of action for now. I'm not happy with the result of the ABX call trade today but there isn't much you can do when you don't put forth the full effort. In retrospect I should have placed a stop loss order when the trade got profitable again yesterday. I also noticed too late this morning that the heavy volume yesterday on the ABX calls did not expand the open interest. In fact the open interest declined significantly. That was another clue that I picked up on when it was already past the point of no return. None of that matters now though. The next trade is what's important.

The grind higher continues as the Dow gained 23 points on light volume. The advances barely beat out the declines. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The advance is really starting to look thin as the advance/declines are not strong. However the trend remains up until we get some type of meaningful decline. Hasn't happened yet but be aware that it could commence at any time. That's my guess of the situation at the moment. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Moving sideways at a slightly higher level but no breakout as of yet. I'm not planning on buying the March calls anymore but I suppose that could change. Gold moved higher today as the US dollar was lower. The precious metals futures were up $13. The XAU was up 3 7/8. ABX up almost a buck, GG rose 1 2/3 and NEM gained 1/2. Volume was average. My ABX calls are back in the black. We are getting close to breaking through the resistance at $50 for both ABX and GG. GG is acting much better though and the option premiums reflect that. We will need to see good volume as we move above $50 on these 2 stocks to be sure that the breakout is valid. If it even happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Overall stock indices are overbought as they have been for weeks on end. I would not be surprised to see some near term weakness but I do expect higher prices into the March expiration. Gold is approaching the $1800 level and I would expect to see some hesitation or consolidation there. The US dollar is close to the 78 level and I see support there at 77. That level on the US dollar is a logical place to take the profits on gold in my opinion. That is where I'd like to dump the ABX calls, if I hold them that long. The weekly charts on the gold shares still look constructive to the upside. Of course this could all change tomorrow as the markets will go wherever they want. The Fed beige book and the end of the month are on tap.

Some volatility returned today but at the close the Dow only lost a bit more than a point on light volume. The advance/declines were even. Still overbought and nothing has changed for the indices. The trend remains up. Some economic data out this week but no big numbers. But as usual anything can happen. Europe seems to be on the back burner for now. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. The technicals here look to be rolling over and that could present a problem for the overall market if GE is once again leading the market. However we haven't broken the support for GE which lies at around the $18.50 area. Gold was practically flat on the day but dropped $7 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was up a bit today. The XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX down 1/3, GG off 1/4 and NEM dropped a buck. Volume was light. My ABX calls are now in the red. This trade is more and more looking like a loser. I'll need to see a turnaround in ABX shortly or I'll just have to exit. The only positive is that the Gold/XAU ratio is almost at the buy point again. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. End of the month coming up so we'll see what that brings for the stock indexes. I'm not exactly sure where we're headed here but it feels like lower could be the near term direction. Gold isn't acting well to start the week and that could doom my ABX calls. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It seemed like a day of just marking time as the Dow finished lower by a point and two thirds. The advance/declines were about even and the volume was pretty light. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. We're still overbought both short and medium term on the stock indices. We're still grinding higher as well. GE was little changed once again on very light volume. I'm not exactly sure about a March option trade here now. We've had every opportunity to break out higher here and it hasn't happened. Perhaps if we drift back to the 50 day moving average on the daily charts, I'll try the calls. Gold was lower today, down around $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower today as well so the non confirmation with the price of gold is troubling for the longs. And I'm one of the longs. The XAU fell 2 1/4 today. ABX was off 3/4, GG down 7/8 and NEM fell 1 1/4. Volume was light to average. My ABX calls are right back at where I purchased them. I expected some hesitation at the $50 level for ABX but I don't like the way the stock and gold acted today. The daily candlestick chart looks ominous as well unless we turn things around in a hurry at the beginning of next week. I'm not giving up on this trade just yet because this could just be a pause before we move higher. But if it isn't, this trade will be another loser. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. It seems like we're still waiting for some type of market correction that never comes. It has been quite a long time since we've seen even a drop of 3 or 4 days. The trend remains up until further notice. Gold had a good week but we'll need to see some follow through next week to bolster the bullish cause. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with some type of game plan for next week. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. We gained 46 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The over the counter stocks had a good day and that's usually bullish going forward. No real news to report and the economic data was relatively benign. We'll see if we can build on todays gains tomorrow. GE closed down a touch but was well off of the days lows. I still might try the March calls here with 3 weeks left in the option cycle. I will consider this trade over the weekend. Gold continued its run higher by gaining $15 on the futures but lost ground in the aftermarket. The US dollar had a decent drop today. The XAU was up a point. ABX gained 1/8, GG up 1/4 and NEM rose a buck. Volume was average. My ABX calls are still in the black but they finished well off of the days high. ABX and GG are running into short term resistance and I would expect a pause in the recent rally here. I expect that we will break through the resistance next week but that's a guess as usual. Anything can happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'm looking for higher prices in the stock indices and expect the uptrend to continue into the March option expiration. I'm also thinking that gold will hit $1800 next week and we are already almost there. What happens when we get to $1800 will be the key. A break through that level will probably mean a run at the all time highs. However there is a possible negative RSI divergence on the daily gold chart. So the jury is still out there. I'll be keeping an eye on the ABX calls that I have but I anticipate holding them into next week at the least. We'll get through tomorrows trading session and reassess things from there.

Kind of a lackluster session today as the Dow fell 27 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading lower. We do need to work off the overbought condition. I do not see any huge decline in the works and I would expect higher prices by the March expiration. GE was flat on light volume. Still trying to break out of the top of the range as we have just gotten above it. We'll need to see some volume to the upside to confirm. Gold had another good day, up $12 on the futures and another $8 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was a bit higher today. The XAU gained 3 points. ABX up a buck, GG rose 3/4 and NEM higher by 1 1/4. My ABX calls are in the black. However the GG option prices are increasing better than the ABX option prices, given the same price moves in the underlying stocks. The GG March calls at this point would have been a better choice. We're not overbought on the gold share calls yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not a lot of economic data this week and it's a short week as well. I'm not expecting any huge moves one way or the other for the stock indices. Gold is acting well and I think the next target there is $1800. We'll see. February is usually a challenging month for the market but that hasn't happened yet. Still a week to go.

The big news today was the Greek bailout deal was approved, so perhaps that won't dominate the headlines for awhile. I doubt that the problem is really solved though. The Dow gained 15 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Still overbought on the stock indices and still trying to move higher. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. We are breaking through the top of the trend channel today. However the volume wasn't all that great. I still am considering the GE March calls though. Gold was another story of the day as it gained over $30 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU gained 5 1/3. ABX and GG up 1 3/8, while NEM rose 2 1/8. Volume was average. NEM is breaking above a declining tops line on the daily charts that has been in effect since November. That is a bullish sign. I'm a believer that gold will be moving higher in the short term. I bought some March ABX calls today. I am chasing the move here but I feel that in this case that it's warranted. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I checked the charts over the weekend and thought that getting long the gold shares was the right idea for now. I do know that March is historically the worst month for the price of gold. I do not think that I'll be holding onto this trade until the March expiration. The gold share technicals have room to move to the upside and the Gold/XAU ratio signal was flashing a buy again this morning. So I decided to place the trade. We'll see what happens. The stock indexes continue to play the same tune. Higher prices despite being overbought on the technicals. Sooner or later they will need to take a much needed rest. I think that there will be buyers on any dips though. We'll see what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

The Dow closed out the week with a gain of 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow though. I'm not exactly sure where we go from here but the trend is still up until proven otherwise. It's a long weekend with a Monday holiday. We'll have to see what kind of news comes out of Europe. GE was up 1/4 on good volume. We're back up to the top of the trend channel. Perhaps the action in GE today is a precursor for the stock indices next week. That's a guess, as usual. Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished the day little changed. The XAU fell almost 3 points. ABX down 1 1/8, GG off 1/3 and NEM dropped a buck. Volume was average. I am thinking about trying the gold share calls again, since we are just about at the Gold/XAU buy signal once again. We are also more oversold than overbought. I'll consider this trade over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'm still getting past yesterdays debacle with the horrible ABX trade. But you've got to move on. We're on to the March option cycle. The stock indexes continue to move higher despite the ongoing backdrop of headline risk. There is also a possible negative divergence with the daily RSI. So we'll see what happens next week. For now it's Friday afternoon before a long weekend and time for a break.

The market rallied back today as the economic numbers looked to be better than expected. The Dow rose 123 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The market ignored possible European credit downgrades and the Greece situation. The stock indices have the feel of wanting to go higher. Throw in an expiration Friday and I think we'll see better prices again tomorrow. We worked off the recent short term overbought condition and we're off to new highs for the year. Had I not been preoccupied with the losing ABX trade, perhaps I would have tried the OEX calls. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. Still waiting for the breakout here. Gold was flat on the futures after selling off early. The US dollar was weaker today. The XAU had a good day, up 5 1/3. ABX gained 3/4, GG rose 2 1/8 and NEM was up 7/8. Volume was good. The earnings for ABX were below expectations and it sold off with gold early. My ABX call trade ended up worthless. A complete loss. I didn't listen to the technicals and paid the price. There is no excuse. I didn't have the discipline and it cost me. Had I chosen GG instead, it would have worked out. But my information there stated the earnings would be out on the 24th and they came out yesterday after the bell. The Gold/XAU ratio signal was valid as we rallied the gold shares today. Mentally it's a loss of confidence once again. That is just one of the problems with losing trades. They make me scale back the risk and potentially miss out on better trades. As was the case with the OEX today. It's something that I've worked on in the past but today sends me back to square one again regarding my mental trading state of mind. I'll need to put todays losing trade behind me and move forward as soon as possible. The battle is always waged within myself. The stock indices had a good day today and appear to be poised to move even higher. Gold also made a nice comeback after selling off at the open. I'm not sure what my next trade will be at this stage. We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow and then try to enjoy the long holiday weekend.

A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The main index lost 97 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. Worries over Europe took center stage again. I still expect some type of upside before the end of the week. I did not expect the negative action today though. So we'll see. GE fell 18 cents on light volume. We're still in the trading range but at the lower end of it. When we do break out, it should be a pretty good move. Gold gained $10 on the day as the US dollar was up a bit. The XAU fell 2/3. ABX and GG had fractional losses on light volume, while NEM was up over 3/4. My ABX calls are dead and I will be burying them tomorrow. I don't think that the earnings can save them now. The Gold/XAU ratio is still in the buy zone. Perhaps I'll go out to the March options. However March is historically the worst month for the price of gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. My work says that if we do not see any upside through Friday that we will be very oversold both short and medium term. That is why I expect some upside in the stock indices prior to the end of the week. In retrospect the ABX trade was a mistake and I'll be taking the loss tomorrow. I should have simply listened to the technicals. It's not my first wrong move and it won't be the last. Losses are part of the game. We'll see what transpires overnight and check the ABX earnings report in the morning.

Down for much of the session, the Dow made a last half hour rebound and finished the day up 4 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. I'm still a believer in higher prices by the end of the week. The positive expiration bias seems to be in effect. After that, who knows? If I wasn't stuck in the ABX trade, I would perhaps attempt the OEX calls here. Today was probably the day to do that. Hindsight is rarely wrong. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Still moving sideways here. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart here are very tight. That implies a huge move one way or the other as I stated a few days ago. It will happen, it's just a question of when. Gold lost $7 on the futures as the US dollar had a very good day. The XAU fell 2 7/8. ABX down 3/8, GG off 1/3 and NEM dropped 2/3. Volume was good. My ABX February calls, barring a miracle, are dead. Todays loss pretty much sealed that. The only chance would be a rally off the earnings report on Thursday morning. I think that was one of the problems for me on this particular trade. I placed too much emphasis on the earnings and did not listen to the technicals. However the Gold/XAU ratio buy signal is now in effect. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Todays action in the stock indices seems bullish to me, as we tried to sell off but didn't. We've got some Fed news tomorrow and plenty of economic data for the rest of the week. The summation index is starting to move sideways. We'll get through tomorrow and await the ABX earnings on Thursday.

Back to the upside on the Greece bailout today as the Dow rose 72 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. I'm not much of a believer in light volume rallies, especially on a Monday. However later this week, I'm looking for some positive market action in the stock indices. I'm also a believer in the positive expiration bias this week. Plenty of economic data to contend with this week so we'll see what happens. GE was up about 20 cents on light volume. No trades there for now. Gold was flat on the day as the US dollar lost a touch. The XAU fell 7/8. ABX, GG and NEM were all off an 1/8 or so on light volume. I'm still holding the February ABX calls and against my better judgement. Probably should have dumped them this morning. But with the earnings on Thursday there's still a chance that this trade could work out. Another factor for me is that the Gold/XAU ratio is practically at a buy signal again. That doesn't always mean a gold rally is imminent but the odds are better for some upside. So we'll see. I won't be surprised if it a loser though. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. So now Greece is out of the way until the next crisis there but I don't expect any this week. I think we worked off the short term overbought condition on Friday for the stock indices and I expect higher prices by the end of the week. The ABX trade could go either way but it isn't looking good for a profitable ending. But I could be wrong and often am. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We finally got a bit of a pullback today on headline risk as the Dow fell 89 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. This action should turn the summation index around as it was getting about as high as it could. Troubles in Greece resurfaced today but really, they never went away in the first place. But that was the focus of the markets today. The short term overbought condition has been relieved in my opinion. Expiration week coming up and all eyes will be on Europe over the weekend and that will set the tone for Monday morning. I have no idea how that will turn out. GE fell 1/4 on light volume and we had a gap lower as well. It isn't bullish. I'll have to rethink my stance on purchasing some March calls here. No trades for me in GE right now. Gold fell around $15 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar had a strong session due to the anxiety out of Europe. The XAU dropped 3 2/3. ABX and GG fell 7/8, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was average. My open order for the ABX calls was filled when we gapped down at the open. I therefore actually got a better price than my limit order. The trade remains at break even but it will probably be a loser if I continue to hold it into late next week. We had a gap down on most of the gold shares and that isn't bullish. Support did not hold. The only way this trade will work is if we get a complete reversal to the upside on Monday morning. That isn't very likely. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept more. We got some downside today in the stock indices but I really don't think that it is the beginning of some huge drop next week. We've got the positive bias of expiration week combined with what I believe is an already short term oversold condition. I could be wrong and often am. The ABX trade is on but I don't think it is going to work out as I desired. I'll have plenty to think about over the weekend and hopefully I'll make the proper decisions. We are back in headline risk mode and that is a tough way to trade. Virtually anything can happen at any time which is always the case when it comes to trading. But a news driven marketplace seems to magnify events one way or the other. It's possible that volatility will return and that makes for a trickier environment. So I'll keep an eye on things over the weekend and go from there. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Overbought, staying there and a slight gain today as the Dow gained 6 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The advancing grind continues. Day in and day out there is no concentrated selling. The trend is up and the rally continues. Summation index continues higher but we are just about as far as we can go. But who knows? GE was off 1/8 on light volume. A bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart here as well as a negative divergence on the RSI. They imply lower prices for GE in the near term. Gold was up $10 in the futures market and fell by that amount in the aftermarket. The US dollar ended flat on the day. The XAU fell 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I'm leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls but the risk is probably higher than I would normally take on. There are only 6 days left in the February option cycle. Todays action in gold itself wasn't bullish. However I've been a believer in this trade for some time now. So we'll see. I may cancel it tomorrow though. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. I have expected the market to take a rest but it hasn't happened. Perhaps we will simply continue the upwards trend into expiration. That's a guess as usual. We'll see how gold closes out the week tomorrow. There are still the ABX earnings out next week as well. So we'll get through Friday and go from there.

A minor attempt at a sell off this morning but the Dow came back and ended the day with a gain of 5 points. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. No signs of a pullback although the short term technical picture is very overbought. The trend is up until further notice. GE had a fractional gain on light volume. No trades there for now. I'm still considering the March calls. Gold was down $17 on the futures but came back by $5 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was basically flat. The XAU fell 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume. I'm still leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls. Running out of time here and I usually don't do well with the short term trades. We'll see if the order gets filled tomorrow and go from there. Only 7 days left in the February option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not a lot of data out this week and not a lot of news so far. There is really nothing new to report. The rally continues to have legs and there is nothing to stop it just yet. But we are very overbought and that condition won't last forever.

The upwards grind continues as the Dow gained 33 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. Nothing technically has changed. We continue to be overbought and moving higher. The song remains the same. Very overbought on a daily basis. I've been expecting a pullback in the stock indices for quite some time and it really hasn't happened. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Still stuck in a trading range and awaiting the breakout one way or the other. Gold was up $23 on the futures today as the US dollar took a hit. The XAU fell a point though as it failed to follow the precious metal higher. Not exactly sure what that means going forward but it usually isn't bullish. ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM was flat. Volume was light. I am keeping the open order in for the February ABX calls. The open interest expanded a bit on the February 50 ABX calls from yesterdays volume. Todays volume on this option was huge as well. Time is running out here though but with the earnings report coming out next week, anything can happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There isn't much else to say as far as the stock market is concerned. Continuing higher along with the summation index. Gold had a nice snap back and we'll have to see if we can take out the recent highs there. If not, we may be setting up a short term top but I don't think that is the case. The recent dollar weakness is supportive to the price of gold and it looks like the dollar could fall a little further. We'll see.

We started the day off lower and tried to claw our way back as the Dow lost 17 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Conditions remain the same, overbought and staying there. The summation index continues higher. Not a lot of economic data out this week, so we could be at the mercy of the headline events. GE was flat today on light volume. Still in a trading range here as we have been from the beginning of the year. A breakout one way or the other should be coming soon. Gold lost $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher early and then fell back. It finished the day little changed. The XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional changes one way or the other on very light volume. I placed another open order for some February ABX calls. However time is running out on these options and the trade has more risk than I would usually take. That said, I would still like to give it a shot. The open interest did not expand with the volume Friday for the ABX February 50 calls. That isn't exactly bullish. I will have to ponder this trade tonight and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'm not exactly sure what to expect from the stock indices this week. We've been overbought for so long that the technicals are out of whack. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was up, up and away from the start as the Dow gained 156 points on the heels of a positive employment report. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive and the volume was good. We simply continue higher regardless of being overbought. That is how it works in bull markets. The summation index continues higher but we are getting pretty high here. There's some room left but I would expect a turn in this indicator at some point in February. It doesn't mean we have to see a big decline in the indices, sideways would also be an option. GE rose 1/4 on average volume. We're still in a sideways channel here but if the overall market is any indication of things to come, GE will break out to the upside. Hasn't happened yet. I'm still interested in the March calls. Gold finally started to pull back as it lost $20 in the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket. The US dollar finished the day relatively flat despite the better jobs numbers. The XAU fell about 2 1/2. ABX lost 3/4, GG dropped 1 1/8 and NEM shed 1 1/4. Volume was good here and that's a concern for the bullish case going forward. I again placed an order for some ABX February calls but canceled it near the end of the trading session. With only 2 weeks to go in the February option cycle, any option trade here will take on even more risk. The earnings report for ABX comes out the Thursday before expiration this month, adding to the risk as well. Once again there was very heavy volume in the February ABX 50 calls. We will have to see if it expanded the open interest there on Monday as was previously the case. I'm still considering the calls here. Mentally I'm feeling very tired, did not sleep well. The stock indexes continue higher and there is no end in sight. Of course when you start to make statements like that, the end is usually near. Very overbought on the technicals in the stock market. I think that something to the downside will happen this month or at the very least a sideways pause. The timing of such an event, if it occurs, is the question. I have no answers. Gold started to correct today and I'll be checking the charts to see if the February gold share calls are still the proper trade. I think they are. But we all know there are no guarantees in this game. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The expected holding pattern before the employment report occurred today as the Dow fell 11 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Still overbought on the stock indices. So we'll get tomorrows number and take it from there. GE was flat today on light volume. The Bollinger bands continue to tighten here, so expect a big move one way or the other in GE soon. I'm still interested in the March calls here but in no hurry. Gold continues to move higher, up about $10 on the futures and a touch more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was a bit higher today but really was in a holding pattern waiting for tomorrows employment report. The XAU was up 2 points. ABX gained 1/2, while GG and NEM each rose over a buck. Volume was light. I placed an order in for the ABX February calls again. Once again the volume on the February ABX 50 calls was heavy. The open interest there expanded again yesterday. I'd like to own some of these if the price is right because there is obviously something going on here. What? I don't know. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we'll see what the employment report brings and the markets reaction to it. We've been overbought for so long on the stock indices that you'd just expect the markets to continue to churn higher regardless of what the employment report is. Gold is a mirror of the stock indexes overbought and staying there condition. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

February trading began to the upside as the Dow gained 83 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The rally from the October lows continues. The over the counter stocks continue to lead the way and that is bullish going forward. Summation index continues higher. We worked off some of the overbought conditions in the past week or so and now we are moving higher. Nothing seems to be in the way of higher prices. GE had a fractional gain after being higher earlier. Volume was average. I'm still looking for a decent move one way or the other in the near future. My thinking here is still for the GE March calls. Gold was up around $9 on the futures today. The US dollar took another drop today but the move in gold itself was muted. The XAU was off 1/4. ABX was flat, GG fell 3/4 and NEM dropped 1/3. Volume was light. Overbought on the gold shares and I canceled the open order for the ABX February calls. I once again noticed some extreme volume in the ABX February 50 calls. The last time that happened about a week ago the open interest expanded as well. We'll see tomorrow if that is again the case. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock indexes remain overbought and rallying. That has been and still is the case. You cannot fight that. I'm not sure what my next trade will be. I was leaning towards the gold share calls but we have yet to see a pullback in gold itself. I will have to consider exactly what to do later tonight. Perhaps I'll wait for the markets reaction to the employment report and go from there. A little more than 2 weeks left for the February option cycle. Tomorrow should be a holding pattern awaiting Friday.

Another attempt at a one day reversal as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 20 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. We are moving to short term oversold and I would expect a move higher in the stock indices tomorrow or the next day. We also have the positive beginning of the month money flows to bolster the short term bullish case. We've been kind of moving sideways for a week and a half. I expect a positive resolution to the recent indecision. GE fell almost 1/4 on average volume. The Bollinger bands on the daily charts are contracting here. This implies a big move one way or the other soon for GE. I have no idea in which direction. I would still like to get the March calls for GE at some point. We'll see. Gold gained $6 on the futures despite the US dollar being a bit higher today. The XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I still have in the open order for the ABX February calls. I'm not sure how long I'll leave this order in. However, I'm still a believer in higher prices for the gold shares before the February option expiration. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Seems like we're in a short term holding pattern for the stock indexes here. It should be resolved by Friday at the latest. That's when we'll get the employment report. Gold is overbought and staying there but I still think we've got more room to the upside. We'll see how February starts tomorrow.

The market tried to sell off this morning but buyers stepped in and we closed the day down only 6 points on the Dow. We were down over 100 early. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative and the volume was weak. We are getting to a point where perhaps we will see some type of pullback in the stock indices. However with the beginning of the month money flows coming in soon, the picture is mixed at best. Any decline can still be purchased in my opinion. The summation index continues higher. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. I'm now looking at the March calls here. No hurry to purchase them though. Maybe at some point in February if we get oversold on a daily basis. Gold fell a touch today on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU was off 1 2/3. ABX and NEM lost 1/3 and GG fell 2/3. Volume was light. I think we are consolidating the recent huge gains in the gold shares and will then move higher. I have an open order in for some ABX February calls. Gold and the gold shares followed the overall market being lower in the morning and then fighting their way back. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Haven't had any real news out of Europe lately and that has contributed to the rise in the stock indexes. It has remained in the background. That could change at any moment and must be kept in mind. Plenty of economic data out this week capped off by the employment report on Friday. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow was weaker for a second day in a row as we lost 74 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive as the overall market was stronger than the Dow. The GDP report was a bit weaker than expected. The stock indices, with the exception of the Dow, continued to grind higher this week. We are long overdue for a rest. The back and forth this week could be a sign that the rally is waning. Or not. There seems to be an awful lot of liquidity out there. I'm going to try and wait for some technical evidence of a pending decline. Otherwise the upward grind will continue. GE was flat on light volume. Nothing new to report here. Gold continued to climb, up $5 on the futures and another $5 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was weaker again today. The XAU rose 2 3/4. ABX and GG gained 2/3, while NEM was up a buck. Volume was lighter than the previous 2 days. I had another open order in for some February ABX calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. Any kind of pullback or weakness in the gold share calls can be bought in my opinion. I will try and do that next week if I get a chance. I noticed today the volume in the February 50 call strike price for ABX went through the roof. Perhaps that will be the proper choice here. We'll see. Mentally I'm still trying to forget the fact that I missed this explosive move in the gold share calls when I was right there trying to take advantage of it. Obviously improvement is needed. But like I said before, there still may be a chance to make some profit from it. I think the overall market is beginning to signal a change but I could be wrong there as well. It's been an interesting week but now it's time for a break. I'll be going over the charts this weekend and hopefully I'll come up with some type of solid game plan for next week.

We had a one day reversal today as we opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 22 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today and that's the second time we've seen that here lately. No technical damage has been done to this extended rally in the indices but we're beginning to see signs that it's getting tired and may need a rest. February more often than not is a bit weaker when we are in a rising market. GE lost a touch after opening higher as well. Yesterday it looked like we were going to break out to the upside from the congestion zone. Today we are simply still in the zone. Perhaps the GDP report tomorrow will change things. No trades in GE for now but perhaps the March option cycle. Gold continued higher, adding on to yesterdays gains by $25 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit weaker today. The XAU rose 2 1/4. ABX up 1/2, GG tacked on 1 1/8 and NEM added 1/4. Volume was good. I left in an open order for some gold share calls overnight but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving in another open order for some ABX February calls overnight. Since we've seen a valid breakout in gold, I would expect further gains in the gold shares. The timing is late though. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. The rally continues in the stock indexes but I think we are beginning to see signs that it is long in the tooth. I could be wrong but we have remained overbought for a very extended time. Gold has broken out and will move higher in my opinion. We'll wrap things up tomorrow and go from there.

The Fed spoke and the market listened as the Dow rose 83 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Overbought for weeks now and no sign of a top. I really don't know how long this can go on but I do know this. It will probably last longer than you think and it already has. Summation index continues higher. So the scenario remains the same for now. GE was up 30 cents on OK volume. We're still in the recent congestion zone here but it now looks like GE wants to break out to the upside. I don't have any trades here in mind for GE though. Gold was one of the stories of the day as it rallied $35 dollars on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket on the Fed. The US dollar fell in reaction to the continued easy US monetary policy. The XAU exploded to the upside by 11 1/3. ABX and GG were both up 3 and NEM rose 2 3/4. Volume was heavy. I placed an overnight order in for the ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I am leaving in an overnight order in for some GG calls in hopes of a pullback. But it probably won't come tomorrow. I do not like to chase moves however in this case price and volume have broken out and that can't be ignored. In retrospect the Gold/XAU ratio was close enough to justify purchasing the gold share calls. The gold exchange traded fund GLD has broken through the downtrend line that has been in effect since September. The next technical expectation would be a pullback towards that line. That will be the point to purchase the gold share calls after missing this opportunity. Mentally I'm feeling a bit miffed for missing the gold share call trade. However the market doesn't care and really, neither should I. But I don't like missing out on decent trades more than I don't like losing money. It doesn't matter though as the game goes on and there will always be another trade. You've got to keep moving on. I'm going to try the gold share calls anyway if I get the chance. I'm also considering some OEX puts for February if we get some sort of RSI or momentum signal. Hasn't happened yet but I'll be looking for that as we go into February. Plenty of economic data at the end of this week but the Fed announcement may trump any of that. We'll see.

We opened lower today and tried to fight our way back but the Dow closed with a loss of 33 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Still overbought and still no real pullback. The summation index continues higher. We'll get a Fed announcement tomorrow and that may move things. GE was down 1/8 on light volume. We've been moving sideways here for about 3 weeks. No trades there for now. Gold lost $13 as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU lost 3 2/3. ABX off 1 1/2, GG fell a buck and NEM dropped 1 3/4. Volume was average or better. NEM has been the leader for the gold shares and we are setting fresh lows there. Oversold on the gold shares and almost at the Gold/XAU ratio buy signal. It's possible that both gold and the gold shares will decline together. Regardless, I'm going to give the gold share call trade a shot this week if the signal comes through. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. The overall market is overbought and I expect some weakness this week. Today was not a real decline in my opinion. The overall market was too strong. So we'll get through the Fed announcement tomorrow and go from there.

A quiet start to the week as the Dow lost 11 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. Nothing new to report really. We've got the Fed this week and that may be the highlight. Still overbought and I'm looking for some type of pullback this week. But we'll need a catalyst for that and I have no idea what that will be. So we wait. GE lost about 1/4 on light volume. No trades there in the near future. Gold continued higher, up about $14 on the futures. The US dollar was weaker today as the euro has begun to move higher. The XAU was up 3 points. ABX gained 1 1/8, GG rose 3/8 and NEM was flat. Volume was average. I'm looking to get long the gold share calls this week on weakness if it happens. May be too late already. The gold share calls are oversold on the technicals. We don't have the Gold/XAU buy signal just yet. If and when that signal occurs we will have a decent risk/reward to put on that trade. I'm looking at the February ABX or GG calls. ABX has shown the best relative strength lately. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A new option cycle started today so the premiums are higher than I'd like. That said, if a trade looks good this week I'm going to give it a shot. Tomorrow could be another waiting on the Fed day. More economic data out later this week. I'll try and be patient here on the gold share calls because gold itself is pretty overbought. Gold is also approaching a downtrend line that could prove to be resistance. We'll watch what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

Onward and upward we go as the Dow gained 96 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. Something changed today however as the overall market was much weaker than the Dow. Perhaps this is a divergence worth paying attention to. Or not. It could just be a byproduct of the option expiration today. But it is worth mentioning since this is the first time in a while that we've seen it. Still very overbought on the technicals for the stock indices. This won't last forever. GE came out with its earnings this morning and the stock sold off. However it came all the way back during the course of the trading day to finish unchanged. Volume was heavy. The technicals on GE mirror the overall market. Overbought, staying there and it is overdue for some pullback. Gold was up around $10 on the futures, while the US dollar ended the session practically flat. The precious metal has held up rather well here and is overbought as well. The XAU fell a point though as the gold shares are not following the metal itself. ABX down 2/3, GG gained 1/2 and NEM lost 1/3. Volume was heavy in the gold shares. ABX came out with what was viewed as bad news, in the same manner as NEM did on Tuesday. The technicals on the gold shares are getting oversold. I'm getting a possible positive RSI divergence on one of my ABX charts. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost to the buy signal. So it's possible the time to get the February gold share calls is upon us. The only caveat is that gold itself is overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still moving higher on the stock indexes but we are both short and medium term overbought. That hasn't stopped us from going up but at some point it will. The question is when? The gold shares are looking interesting to me and I think that next week I'll be giving the February calls a try. We'll see. I will have to check the charts over the weekend and take it from there. For now it's the end of another trading week and time for a rest.

Moving ahead is what we continue to do as the Dow gained 45 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The overall market remains a bit stronger than the Dow. There is nothing new to report as the grind higher remains in place. We'll have to wait and see what happens after the option expiration tomorrow. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Earnings out tomorrow morning and perhaps the Dow will take its cue for the day from that report. No trades in mind there even after the numbers are released. Gold fell $5 on the futures despite the weaker US dollar. The XAU lost 3 1/8. The gold shares have shown weak relative strength here, related to gold itself and the overall stock market. Not sure if it means anything. ABX off 1 1/2, GG down 1/2 and NEM lost 3/4. Volume picked up to the downside. The Gold/XAU ratio is moving in the right direction to offer a buy signal but it might take a few more days. The technicals on the gold shares have rolled over. If and when we reach oversold here will be the time to attempt the gold share calls. That looks as though it will likely be the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well again. It has been a good bullish run for the stock indices and there seems to be no end coming to it in the near term. Calls have been and continue to be the way to go. I'm not exactly sure what is going on with the gold shares here and it will bear keeping an eye on things. The disconnect amongst the shares with the US dollar, gold itself and the stock market strength is puzzling. Perhaps things are weaker here than I think. We'll see. Let's get through Fridays expiration and go from there.

Another day another gain as the Dow rose 96 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. Overbought, staying there and higher we go. Summation index still moving up. The January option cycle has been pretty good for the calls. 2 days to go before expiration. Nothing in the way of more gains at the moment. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. We'll see what happens when the earnings arrive on Friday morning. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar lost ground again. The XAU was up 1 1/4. ABX and GG were off a nickel, while NEM shed 1/2. Volume was average. I'm still considering the gold share calls for the February option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough. The stock indexes continue to be positive and you cannot fight the trend. We've had a good run since the middle of December. The only question is how long will it last? My guess would be longer than expected. Gold hasn't reached its downtrend line yet. When it does it may be a place to short it. However it also may be the spot where gold simply takes a rest before moving higher. Right now I'm believing the latter scenario. We'll see what happens when we get there.

Still moving higher although we closed off of the best levels of the day as the Dow gained 60 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. We opened up over 100 points and then had a steady erosion throughout the day. No real news to report. The technicals remain the same. There is nothing to suggest at the moment that we just won't continue to grind higher. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. There is really no need to attempt to trade ahead of the earnings that are due Friday morning. The technicals remain overbought as they have been for weeks. The risk of attempting a short term trade here is too high. I will try and remain on the sidelines with regards to GE for now. Gold had a good day, the futures gained over $20 as the US dollar was weaker today. However the gold shares did not follow, as the XAU lost 3 points. ABX and GG lost about 1/3 or so. NEM was the big loser, off 2 1/2. Volume on the gold shares was average to good. Not exactly sure what is going on here but I'm still considering the gold share calls for February as my next trade. If and when the technicals get oversold and the Gold/XAU ratio flashes a buy signal. Patience is required. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 3 days left in the January option cycle and I have no trades in mind. I'm still of the belief that expiration week will have its usual positive bias. After that, who knows? Plenty of economic data out in the next couple of days and there's always the possibility of some type of headline out of Europe. We'll look for the markets reaction to the numbers and news. Take your cues from there.

It was a down Friday the 13th today but it could have been worse. The Dow fell 49 points today on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. We were down over 150 points this morning but came back. Worries about Europe surfaced once again. However this market is resilient. It does not want to go lower in my opinion. It will continue to grind higher next week is my thinking at the moment. It had every reason to sell off hard today but it did not. GE was off a touch on light volume. Maybe I will try the January calls before the earnings in a week. The strike price at 19 might work. Gold was lower today, off about $15 in the futures. We made a comeback here as well in the aftermarket even with a stronger US dollar. The XAU fell 2 1/4 but was even lower early. ABX, GG and NEM were all down 1/2 or so on light volume. I'll have to go out to the February option cycle for the gold share calls if that is what I decide for the next trade. It's possible today was the day to do that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still overbought on the stock indexes here but I don't see any big downside anytime soon. Expiration week should have its usual positive bias. I could be wrong depending on what transpires over the long holiday weekend. I'll check the charts and try to come up with some type of game plan for next week.

Still chugging ahead as the Dow gained 21 points on what now passes for average volume. Nothing out there yet to derail this train. The advance/declines were positive. Volatility has disappeared as the days follow the same lower in the morning, higher in the afternoon routine. Sooner or later we'll pop one way or the other. Overbought, staying there, summation index moving higher. I've been writing the same thing for quite a while. GE was up a nickel on lighter volume. Will I try the January calls here before the earnings next Friday? That's about all there is left to do here. It's probably wiser to pass but that probably won't stop me. Gold was up another $8 today on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 2 points and is up against its 50 day moving average on the daily charts. ABX was flat, while GG and NEM rose 3/4. Volume was average for lately. I'll try the gold share calls if we get some weakness. They've already risen pretty good from the recent lows. Mentally I'm doing OK but could have slept better. We've got Friday ahead of a long weekend coming up tomorrow. I don't foresee any changes from the recent grind away higher pattern. I might look at the OEX puts here since we have been overbought for days. It would have to be a very short duration trade though because the trend is definitely up. I'll ponder things overnight and take it from there.

We continue to grind away with an upward bias as the Dow lost 13 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The Fed beige book came and went with nothing new. The technicals remain the same, overbought and staying that way. There is nothing to suggest any changes are forthcoming. Summation index moving higher. We are due for some pullback but I don't expect anything drastic. GE bounced back today on lighter volume. It gained 1/8. I'm looking at the January calls for perhaps a trade before the earnings report but it would be very risky. It is probably wiser to look elsewhere. Perhaps the OEX instead. Gold continued to the upside by $8 on the futures and a touch more in the aftermarket. The US dollar had a strong day but that did not deter gold. The XAU gained 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves to the upside on light volume. It looks like I will have to hold off on buying the gold share calls for now. I need to see some weakness here and it just isn't happening. I think that it is too late to chase this move but I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough. The song remains the same for the stock indices. The technicals have been overbought for weeks. Yet we continue higher. Gold and the US dollar have both shown strength in the last week or so and that isn't the normal relationship between the two. No real bad news out of Europe and that has helped us move higher. 2 trading days left in the week before a long holiday weekend.

We moved to the upside from the recent sideways congestion, as the Dow gained 69 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We're still overbought and the summation index is still moving higher. I really don't see anything that would stop the market from going higher. However I think it will be more of a grind than a dramatic move up. We won't remain overbought forever. Fed notes tomorrow. GE lost 1/8 on better volume. When the market opened up over 100 points, GE showed a little strength and then started to lose ground. It did not participate in todays rally. To me, that was a warning sign. I dumped the GE calls early. That trade lasted for quite a while and the return was 800%. That's not a typo. Maybe GE will lead the market lower here but I certainly don't know. It's a nice trade to begin the new year but the next trade is all that matters now. Gold was up about $25 as the US dollar fell again today. The XAU rose 3 2/3. ABX up 2/3, GG added 3/8 and NEM higher by 1 1/8. Volume was average. Looks like I am too late for the gold share calls but I will keep them in mind. Mentally I'm doing OK but not feeling well. No solid technical signals at the moment for what I'm following. 7 days left in the January option cycle. Probably a good time to be patient. We do have the GE earnings announcement on expiration Friday. Probably too risky to try anything there but we'll see. No OEX trades in the works at the moment. We'll see if we can build on todays gains tomorrow.

A fairly quiet start to the week as the Dow gained 32 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. Summation index continues higher. The trend is up and we're overbought. That has been the case since the year started. Won't go on like this forever but we continue to grind higher. The news out of Europe today was a non-event for a change. Perhaps the Fed beige book on Wednesday will bring some decent market movement. Or not. GE was up another 1/8 on light volume. I again placed a stop limit order for the day but we never came back to it. Still overextended on the technicals for GE but I continue to hold on as we grind higher here as well. Pretty sure I'll be selling the calls this week. The uptrend line on the daily charts from the beginning of December is still intact. Gold fell a bit today despite weakness in the US dollar. The yellow metal was down around $8 on the futures. The gold shares were mixed with ABX up 1/4, GG rose 3/4 and NEM fell 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still considering some gold share calls for February. The technicals are more overbought than oversold though. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. The stock indices have been drifting for about a week with overbought technicals. Not exactly sure how that is going to play out. GE continues to show excellent relative strength and that is one of the reasons for holding on to the calls for so long. However this trade has only 8 days to go before option expiration. Plus the earnings are due on expiration Friday. The risk increases with every passing day but that is always the case in this game. We'll check what the overseas markets do overnight and take it from there.

The employment report came and went as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The jobs report was a bit better than expected but the market did not rally. The overall market was stronger than the Dow once again. We're still overbought and staying there. The summation index continues higher. Where we go next is the question as usual. I'd like to see one more pop to the upside but of course I'm holding calls at the moment. I have no idea what next week will bring. Some economic data and the Fed beige book will be out. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. I placed a stop loss order here for the day but it wasn't hit. The GE calls I own are still in the black. The relative strength of GE continues to be strong but I can't hold on to these options forever. They will probably be sold next week. At least they should be. Overbought both short and medium term here. Gold fell a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues to move higher. In fact it's a mystery to me why gold hasn't dropped this week with the US dollars strength. The XAU fell 1 7/8. ABX off 1/2, GG down 1 1/8 and NEM dipped 1/8. Volume was light. I'd still like to get some gold share calls but not exactly sure about the timing at this point. Perhaps next week. ABX has been showing the best relative strength but there is no guarantee that continues going forward. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. Both the stock indices and gold have moved higher this week despite the rise in the US dollar. That is the opposite of what you would expect. I don't know why nor do I know how much longer that abnormal relationship can go on. I'm still going to look for higher prices in the beginning of next week for the stock indexes. That could give me an opportunity to dump the GE calls. That is my game plan as of now, subject to revision over the weekend. It's the first Friday afternoon of the new year and time for a break.

The Dow tried to sell off this morning but once again came back and finished the day with a loss of 2 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, which leads me to believe higher prices are in the near future. Summation index still moving higher. All eyes will be on the employment report tomorrow. No idea what that holds. The stock indices are still overbought and staying there. This condition won't last forever. No OEX trades in mind at the moment. GE was flat on the day. Volume was light. I've been holding the GE calls for quite some time. They remain in the black. I'm thinking that I will sell them tomorrow or in the beginning of next week. I don't think there will be a big decline here but what do I know? 2 weeks left in the January option cycle after tomorrow. Gold was up another $7 today and a touch more in the aftermarket. This, despite a huge rally in the US dollar. Money poured out of gold in December and now in January it is coming back in. The XAU was off 1/3 today. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I may go out to the February option cycle if I give the gold shares a try here. I did notice some huge volume and open interest expansion in the ABX February $52.5 calls. The relative strength of ABX has been strong at the beginning of the year so far. However it's also possible that I'll try the GG calls. Not sure why gold hasn't dropped with the strength of the dollar. There are Middle East rumblings again. The gold share technicals are getting overbought short term but not on the medium term. I'd still like to see a near term pullback before purchasing some calls. May not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. Waiting on the data tomorrow and the markets reaction to it. I'm leaning towards higher prices after todays market action. That's a guess as usual. Anything could still come out of Europe at any time. So we'll see what happens.

The Dow continued higher today but without a lot of conviction. The most watched index rose 21 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. We're probably in a wait and see mode until the employment report on Friday. Overbought and staying there. The summation index continues higher. GE was up an 1/8 or so on light volume. I don't know how much longer I'm going to hold on to the GE calls. Overbought on a daily and weekly basis. Possible negative divergence on the daily RSI. Gold continued higher, up a dozen points despite a higher US dollar. The XAU was flat. ABX up 3/4, GG off 1/3 and NEM down 1/8. Volume was light, with the exception of ABX. ABX has been the leader here to the upside. I still might try the calls there if we get some pullback. Not extremely overbought yet. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. Not a lot of action in the stock indices today. The overseas markets were generally weaker but the Dow was resilient. That has been the case lately. We'll see how long that lasts. Gold has had a nice bounce and I still think we could move higher. Need some weakness there to get long. I expect tomorrow to be a non-event in the markets. I've been wrong before and often as well.

We started the new year to the upside as the Dow gained 180 points on what looks like light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were higher on the day but could not hold onto the earlier gains. Although we were up, I don't like the action. The transports came well off of their highs. I would have liked to see the Dow close near its high for the day. If we have another solid up day tomorrow, then I will feel better about the market moving forward. If not, than I'm not so sure. The technicals are overbought but could stay that way. We had some Fed news today but it wasn't really a market mover. GE was up 1/2 on average volume. Still overbought here and we closed off the highs as well. If we move lower here we will have a negative RSI divergence and that will not bode well for higher prices in GE. My GE calls are still in the black but I will have to think hard about getting rid of them sooner rather than later. We'll see. Gold was one of the stories of the day, up over $30 on the futures. The US dollar was fairly weaker on the day. The XAU gained 8 2/3. ABX up 2 1/4, GG rose 1 1/4 and NEM higher by 2 bucks. Volume was good. Money is coming back into the gold shares and it is probably too late for the January calls here. Any pullback can be bought short term in my opinion. I don't like missing moves but we never got the Gold/XAU ratio buy signal, although we did get a positive RSI divergence. Also had a bullish candlestick pattern at recent support on ABX 2 days ago. Sometimes you miss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Tomorrow could be key and I'd like to see more upside in the stock indices. If not, decisions will have to be made. Some economic data out this week but all eyes will be on the employment report due Friday. We cannot forget that it is still an event driven atmosphere. Any news out of Europe could move this thing one way or the other. It's a risky environment. More overbought than oversold on the stock indices here as well. Plenty to ponder. Gold has had a nice bounce here as the year starts. Is it for real or just beginning of the year money flows? Time will tell. We'll see what tomorrow brings.