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Tuesday, January 03, 2012

We started the new year to the upside as the Dow gained 180 points on what looks like light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were higher on the day but could not hold onto the earlier gains. Although we were up, I don't like the action. The transports came well off of their highs. I would have liked to see the Dow close near its high for the day. If we have another solid up day tomorrow, then I will feel better about the market moving forward. If not, than I'm not so sure. The technicals are overbought but could stay that way. We had some Fed news today but it wasn't really a market mover. GE was up 1/2 on average volume. Still overbought here and we closed off the highs as well. If we move lower here we will have a negative RSI divergence and that will not bode well for higher prices in GE. My GE calls are still in the black but I will have to think hard about getting rid of them sooner rather than later. We'll see. Gold was one of the stories of the day, up over $30 on the futures. The US dollar was fairly weaker on the day. The XAU gained 8 2/3. ABX up 2 1/4, GG rose 1 1/4 and NEM higher by 2 bucks. Volume was good. Money is coming back into the gold shares and it is probably too late for the January calls here. Any pullback can be bought short term in my opinion. I don't like missing moves but we never got the Gold/XAU ratio buy signal, although we did get a positive RSI divergence. Also had a bullish candlestick pattern at recent support on ABX 2 days ago. Sometimes you miss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Tomorrow could be key and I'd like to see more upside in the stock indices. If not, decisions will have to be made. Some economic data out this week but all eyes will be on the employment report due Friday. We cannot forget that it is still an event driven atmosphere. Any news out of Europe could move this thing one way or the other. It's a risky environment. More overbought than oversold on the stock indices here as well. Plenty to ponder. Gold has had a nice bounce here as the year starts. Is it for real or just beginning of the year money flows? Time will tell. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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