Wednesday, February 15, 2012
A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The main index lost 97 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. Worries over Europe took center stage again. I still expect some type of upside before the end of the week. I did not expect the negative action today though. So we'll see. GE fell 18 cents on light volume. We're still in the trading range but at the lower end of it. When we do break out, it should be a pretty good move. Gold gained $10 on the day as the US dollar was up a bit. The XAU fell 2/3. ABX and GG had fractional losses on light volume, while NEM was up over 3/4. My ABX calls are dead and I will be burying them tomorrow. I don't think that the earnings can save them now. The Gold/XAU ratio is still in the buy zone. Perhaps I'll go out to the March options. However March is historically the worst month for the price of gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. My work says that if we do not see any upside through Friday that we will be very oversold both short and medium term. That is why I expect some upside in the stock indices prior to the end of the week. In retrospect the ABX trade was a mistake and I'll be taking the loss tomorrow. I should have simply listened to the technicals. It's not my first wrong move and it won't be the last. Losses are part of the game. We'll see what transpires overnight and check the ABX earnings report in the morning.
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