Friday, November 18, 2022
We finished the week on a positive note as the Dow added 199 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to move higher but not at the pace we saw earlier in the rally. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Ideally we'd like to see a light volume rally to the resistance at around 4100. That is where the longer term down trend line that began in January lies. If we get that scenario we'll be looking to purchase the SPY December puts. There's not much to do now except wait. We roll into the December option cycle on Monday. Gold fell $11 on the futures. The US dollar was a little higher along with interest rates. The XAU rose a point, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was above average. Gold down and the gold shares up. That's a bullish divergence for the gold shares. GDX remains short term overbought. We're still hoping it makes it back to the neckline of the recent reversal pattern so that we can try the GDX calls again. May not happen. Trying to remain patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower which fits an up market. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over in oversold territory. This implies more gains for stocks going forward in the short term. We have a holiday week coming up. I'd expect lighter volume with an upside price bias. Many players will be out of the office and away from their screens. It is probably best to just let next week pass and go from there. We'll see if the market cooperates. The routine will remain the same though and we'll be checking the charts over the weekend. Europe up and Asia down to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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