Friday, November 04, 2022
It was a back and forth session for much of the day until the market decided that it wanted to go higher. The Dow gained 401 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The jobs report was better than expected and we bounced around after that. One day doesn't make a rally though. The S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators are around mid-range and moving sideways after todays price action. If we can continue higher from here the S&P chart would look a lot more constructive. There would also be a potential double bottom on the NASDAQ daily chart. But we will have to see where things go from here. Inflation data out next Thursday but we're a long way from that. Gold had a dramatic move to the upside as the futures soared over fifty bucks. The US dollar dropped and interest rates were mixed with little change. The XAU gained 9 1/3, while GDX was up 2 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX is now approaching the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that comes in around 25 1/2. If we can get through the neckline on good volume GDX will be moving higher. Some of the short term indicators here have turned back up. The GDX November calls that I have are showing healthy profits but this trade isn't over yet. We all know by now markets can go either way in a hurry but the entry on this particular trade looks like it was ideal. But just like the overall market one day doesn't make a trend. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good after this recent trade appears to be working out. However I can't let that mood affect me as the trade still has to be managed properly. Up or down, win or lose an even keel will go a long way to producing solid results. Not always easy to do though. The VIX was lower and that fits with an up market. Still short term oversold and staying that way. Not sure how much longer that will last but sometimes it's longer than you think. Impossible to know if this is one of those times. We'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. A holiday next week on Friday for the bond market. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan last night to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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