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Tuesday, November 08, 2022

Another back and forth session with Dow gaining 333 ponts on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher and should pass up through the zero line today. Once again stocks were led by the Dow which has been the theme of the current rally. That isn't the most positive backdrop but the bulls will take it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up and the near term up trend line there remains intact for now. What we really need to see is some strength from the small caps and NASDAQ to feel good about the current rise. We need to get through the election results and the consumer price information as well. Any negative surprises will derail the recent buying. Technically it's a mixed picture with the big caps overbought and the small cap indicators mid-range or lower. Never any easy answers in this game. Gold rallied again with the futures up almost $35 and now above $1700. The US dollar was lower again and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 5 1/2, while GDX gained 1 1/2. Volume was heavy again to the upside for the gold shares as money is now finding a home there. More importantly the rise in GDX went through the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders which validates that pattern. The measuring objective is up near the 30 level. I'm not sure that I can hold on to the GDX calls that I have for that long. There's only a week and a half left in the November option cycle. GDX is also now short term overbought. The next technical expectation of the pattern is a return to the neckline. That isn't always the case but it does happen often enough to be aware of. It does give traders a chance to hop on board before continuing higher. We'll see how things play out for GDX. Needless to say the GDX calls that I have are showing a good profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that doesn't coincide with an up market. This indicator hasn't made sense to me for quite a while. It is not acting in the usual fashion. The short term indicators have now turned back up but the VIX is still oversold. If the indicators continue higher we should see a near term decline in stocks. Hasn't happened yet but it is something to be aware of. Perhaps we'll see some selling tomorrow ahead of the inflation data. That's just a guess on my part. My focus will be on the gold shares. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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