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Monday, November 07, 2022

The Dow continues its climb as the most watched index gained 423 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up and getting closer to the zero line. The Dow was the leader again which has been the case in this recent rally. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to move back up but not in a pronounced way. The big caps are leading the small caps and that's a sign of risk aversion. The trend remains up for now on the S&P. Here we have near term tops above tops and bottoms above bottoms for now. Waiting on Thursdays inflation data. Gold finished about flat on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved up. We should have seen more positive price action for gold with the drop in the dollar. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. We're on the cusp of breaking through the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX. Perhaps we'll stall here for a bit before turning higher. Or we'll break down from here and the pattern will fail. I'm hoping for the former. My GDX November calls are still comfortably in the black. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and now is extremely short term oversold. Not sure how much longer that condition can continue. But I haven't been able to figure out what's happening with the VIX for a while now. We'll just have to wait and see where we go from here. Election day tomorrow and I'm not sure it will have that much impact on stocks. Gridlock would be preferred by the market as always. Asia and Europe were both up overnight with the exception of England. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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