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Wednesday, November 02, 2022

Back to the downside after the Fed as the Dow fell 505 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were bettern than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving higher. We got another signal last night for a big move from the McClellan oscillator and we got it today. The Fed raised rates as expected but the market didn't like what it heard after the fact. The NASDAQ led the way lower and has been under performing for quite a while. Short term indicators for all the major averages have turned down with still more room to move lower. The NASDAQ looks like it wants to test the October lows. Other indices, not so much. The short term up trend line on the S&P daily chart has been broken. It looks like we'll be heading lower in the short term. Gold fell ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 6 1/4, while GDX dropped 1 3/8. Volume was heavy to the downside for the gold shares. They were underperforming the metal today as they chased the overall market lower. My open order for the GDX November calls wasn't hit. Not sure if this is the best idea after today. GDX could be forming another right shoulder on the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Or not. NEM broke its near term support today and is not completely oversold yet. Barrack Gold reports its earnings tomorrow and is close to breaking support as well. I'll have to look things over again tonight and decide what to do. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX once again barely moved and we had a huge decline in stocks. This makes no sense at all. My concern is that if the VIX does start to go higher here we are going to see quite a decline in the market. It is another reason to perhaps take a step back here when it comes to the option trading. But you don't make any money on the sidelines. However you don't lose any either. Something weird is happening with the VIX but I don't know what it is. Plenty to ponder tonight to decide what to do. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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