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Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Here's the holiday week rally as the Dow climbed 397 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and is staying that way. Such is the case in market up turns. I thought that perhaps we'd have a quiet week but the market thought otherwise. We'll see how high it can go here and hopefully up to the 4100 level so that we can try the SPY December puts. The volume is cooperating as it is holiday week light so far. We are not seeing strong leadership from the NASDAQ and that helps build our case to try the puts at resistance. Patience for now. Gold was only up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The gold shares followed the market higher. The XAU gained 5 1/8, while GDX was up over a buck. Volume was good to the upside as money is finding a home here. It looks like we've missed this move higher as my GDX December call order wasn't filled and won't be. I'll cancel it tomorrow most likely. It looks like GDX will not be making a retracement back to the breakout level at 25 1/2 - 26. I suppose we'll just have to wait until it gets short term oversold at some point and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower and now sits at the up trend line that began a year ago. If the VIX can decidedly get through this line it would be further evidence that the decline in stocks that began in January has run its course. A break below the 20 level in the VIX would further support that theory. Hasn't happened yet but we'll be keeping a close watch here. The VIX is still short term oversold. Tomorrow is a getaway day before Thanksgiving but we do have the Fed minutes coming out. We'll see if they are a market mover. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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