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Wednesday, November 30, 2022

The Fed speaks and the market pretty much goes wherever it wants to. Stocks soared on the Fed speech today as the Dow climbed 737 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Monday looked like the start of another breakdown and by Wednesday it is looking like the bear market is over. The S&P 500 is now back to the down trend line that began in January. It is on the cusp of breaking through. Unless we see a dramatic turnaround it is going to break the down trend. Overbought, staying that way and the volume is confirming the move higher. The idea to try the SPY December puts here is probably dead. It appears that's what the market is telling us. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's another plus. We still have the jobs report to get past on Friday but after todays price action it may not even matter. We'll look for follow through upside tomorrow. Gold jumped another twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar sank along with interest rates. The XAU rose 4 1/8, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was good to the upside as it has been. Plenty of resistance for GDX at the 30 level and it's at 29. So I don't see prices going much higher from here for now. GDX remains short term overbought. We'll look for some kind of consolidation here to let the overbought condition work itself off. When GDX gets to oversold again, that will be the time to try the calls there perhaps in the January option cycle. For now we'll have to wait. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped and is just about at 20. Still short term oversold here on the technical indicators. If the VIX stalls at 20 it could lead to a reversal in the market. But that's a big if as stocks feel like they are taking off to the upside as the sellers have disappeared. Seasonality favors higher prices as well. Still over 2 weeks left in the December option cycle but it feels as though the best entry points have passed me by. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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