Wednesday, November 23, 2022
Levitating higher as the Dow rose 95 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Once again the NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. We are getting a light volume rally in the S&P 500 moving up towards the long term resistance. Expect it to continue on the half day Friday. The stopping point should be between the 200 day moving average at 4060 and the longer term resistance around 4100. So it looks as though we'll have a shot at the SPY December puts if we are so inclined. But the market could also simply keep moving up and spell the end of the current bear phase. I still think we'll try the puts though. The S&P remains short term overbought on a daily basis. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX added 3/8. Volume remains good here to the upside. I canceled my open order for the GDX December calls as I have missed this trade. Monday was the time to make adjustments and take the position but I failed to do so. The technical picture for GDX is positive and resistance comes in at the 30 level. Sometimes you need to be nimble and adjust on the fly. The trades don't always set up as you'd like and you have to make the necessary adjustments. GDX is now medium term overbought as well but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and barring something unexpected on Friday will close below the longer term support line that has ruled the bear market in stocks. This could very well be the game changer from bearish to bullish for the market. The VIX is almost at 20 and that is the line in the sand. Get there and stay below says the bull will live on. We are getting medium term oversold on the VIX. The short term picture is about as oversold as it gets. That provides some of the reasoning to attempt the SPY December puts in the near term. If the longer term resistance line for the S&P 500 holds, it should lead to a decline in the market worth taking advantage of with the SPY puts. If the market simply powers through higher, you take the loss and move on. That is my line of thinking at the moment. The Fed minutes today didn't really do much to the players that were here. We'll be off for the holiday tomorrow and then a half day session on Friday. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight. Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
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