Wednesday, November 09, 2022
Stocks got sold today post election as the Dow fell 646 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Maybe the market didn't like the election results that are still in limbo for some races. Perhaps we're just selling off ahead of tomorrows inflation data. The NASDAQ led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back down. Those technical indicators are now mid-range so we could go either way from here. Price is right on the short term up trend line for the S&P. So after tomorrow we'll have a better idea of where we are going in the near term. I can't say that I have a good feel one way or the other for whatever the outcome is. We'll just have to wait and see what the market has to say. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains good here. Hopefully the gold shares are simply digesting the recent strong gains before moving higher. That would be to my benefit for the current GDX call trade. Or this could be the beginning of the move back to the neckline breakout for GDX at 25 1/2. Another possibility is that the recent rise is over and we're about to move back down towards the 50 day moving average. GDX remains short term overbought but can stay that way if this is an extended rally. We'll know more after tomorrows inflation data is digested. Not sure how much longer that I'll hold on to this trade. The current technical analysis says to hold on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with the down draft that we saw in stocks. The short term indicators have turned up but remain oversold and have plenty of room to go higher. This would suggest that we're about to see a sustained decline for stocks. Hasn't happened yet and the VIX remains below its 200 day moving average. Not sure what to expect next here but just like the market things could go either way. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. All eyes on tomorrows inflation report.
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