Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Back and forth once again as the Dow rose 56 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The inflation data out today came in less than expected. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought. We're still waiting for it to reach its 200 day moving average and the 4100 level. The 200 day comes in at 4075. If we get there at that point we'll decide whether trying the SPY December puts as the next trade. Right now it looks as though the market will simply keep going higher but we'll see. We also have a holiday week coming next week and we may want to stay on the sidelines until after that. Gold was up another five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. If interest rates continue to fall that should support higher stock prices. The XAU was down 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average here. GDX remains short term overbought and we are still hoping for a move lower to attempt the GDX calls again. The market rarely cooperates with our best laid plans. For now here we'll watch and wait. Again on the interest rate theme, lower rates would likely support gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today after being much higher during the session. A higher VIX with higher stock prices isn't the normal relationship but this indicator has had a mind of its own lately. Still short term oversold here. We're still in the midst of a stock market rally and we'll see how far it can go. Retail sales out tomorrow should be an excuse to go one way or the other. Staying on the sidelines and patient for the time being. Asia and Europe were higher overnight with the exception of the FTSE again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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