Friday, November 11, 2022
Just hanging around today for the Dow as it was up 32 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Digesting yesterdays stunning gains was the story for the Dow. The overall market was much stronger with the NASDAQ gaining almost 2%. The S&P 500 touched the 4000 level. Getting short term overbought there but not completely just yet. Resistance comes in at 4100 for the S&P and that is where the down trend line that began the bear market lies. We'll consider the SPY puts there perhaps. A break of that line would put the bear market to rest in my view. But we haven't gotten to that point yet. However the market action lately has certainly been positive and the seasonal strength may continue. Gold added $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and the bond market was closed for Veterans Day. The XAU added a point and GDX was up about a dime. Volume was average. The gold shares didn't move up much with gold going higher today and that isn't bullish. GDX is short term overbought but we haven't reached the measuring objective from the recent inverse head and shoulders pattern. I did sell the GDX November calls today. The exit could have been better intra-day but I did what I could. The gain for this trade was 1070% in less than 10 days. That's not a typo and results like that are why we focus on the options. But like any finished trade it doesn't matter now and you move on. I'll be looking for a move back towards the neckline in GDX for another chance at the calls there. We are still looking at the 30 level for GDX as the target for this gold share rally. Mentally I'm trying not to feel too bad about todays mediocre exit on the GDX trade. It is entirely possible that I should have simply held on to the position into next week. Hopefully I won't dwell on it all weekend. The VIX was lower and that fits with the overall market strength. Still short term oversold as the rally lives on. If the VIX can continue its oversold condition until the S&P 500 reaches 4100, we may have a set up for the SPY puts. There is an up trend line on the weekly VIX chart at the 21 level. The VIX currently sits at 22 1/2. It was a great week for stocks and now we have options expiration week on tap. If the positive bias shows up we could get to 4100 sooner rather than later on the S&P. We'll be going over the charts this weekend in hopes of finding the next trading opportunity. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week with the exception of the FTSE. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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