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Monday, November 28, 2022

Sellers returned after the long weekend as the Dow fell 497 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Unrest in China will be the excuse but as always the market knows more than we do. It appears as though the S&P 500 won't make it back to the longer term down trend line at around 4060. But the week is young and one day doesn't make a trend. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are still overbought but they have now rolled over. The important level to watch is 3900, which is where the up trend line from October lies. A break of that will end the rally. The Russell 2000 is already at its up trend line and could be the leader heading lower. We'll keep an eye on that. Gold was off $15 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU dropped almost 5 points, while GDX lost 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. The technical picture for the GDX indicators mirrors the one for the S&P. Short term overbought but rolling over. If GDX gets back to the 26 level and is short term oversold when it gets there we'll think about trying the calls there again. 26 to 25 1/2 is the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart. Technically it isn't out of the question to return to the neckline before resuming the move upwards again. The volume for this pattern has been spot on so far which increases its validity. Might have to go out to the January options depending on how fast we get back to the neckline, if at all. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a gap higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators are oversold but now moving up. If the VIX continues to move higher we'll see a decline in stocks. After today it looks like we won't make it down to the 20 level in the VIX. But it's early in the week and we will have to wait and see. Fed speak from chairman Powell on Wednesday followed by the jobs report on Friday. So there will be plenty more for the market to digest after the Thanksgiving holiday. Europe and Asia were down to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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