Volatility returns with tariff drama as the Dow fell 122 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. We had a huge gap lower at the open as tariffs were announced to begin. Then there was a reprieve on some of the tariffs and the market rallied back. It didn't make it all the way back but the losses were certainly cut. This is the problem with a headline driven environment. The moves can be sharp and turn on a dime. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators are begining to turn down. Not sure now if the SPY February calls are the way to go right now. Still waiting on some kind of valid technical signal for the next trade. Remaining patient for now. Gold bounced around and finished up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher but off from the best levels on the day. Interest rates finished little changed. The XAU gained 2 1/4, while GDX added 5/8. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought and I'm not considering any trades there at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and at one point was above the 20 level. The short term indicators are moving up with room to go. Not sure what to expect next from the VIX. A roller coaster ride today for stcoks but where do we go from here? We still have earnings to contend with along with Fridays jobs report on tap this week. Plus whatever sound bite that comes out of the president. Interesting times. Asia and Europe were down on the tariff news. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It was a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower to finish the month of January. The Dow fell 337 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. Inflation data came in where expected which led to a morning rally. But then sellers took over leading to closing losses for the major indices. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the most bearish scenario. The market is waiting to see what comes out of the Trump tarriffs over the weekend. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on some of its indicators despite todays drop. I'm still in favor of the SPY February calls but am waiting for a decent signal in order to purchase. Still three weeks to go in the February option cycle. The main problem is that we are at the mercy of the next sound bite from Trump which makes the trading harder than it has to be. Gold dipped $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 2 points and GDX slipped about 1/2. Volume was average. GDX continues to remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher which fits with the downside price action today. The daily candlestick chart here has lost its bullish look. Not sure where the VIX is heading next. For now we are in a wait and see mode for this weekends tarriff news. I'll be going over all the charts in the next two days as usual. Europe and Asia were slightly higher to end the week. Monday morning should be interesting as we begin a new trading month. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Heading higher as the Dow gained 168 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 was the leader today. It remains short term overbought as we await the inflation data out tomorrow. End of the month tomorrow as well. The market has the feel of wanting to go higher as it has shrugged off the losses on Monday. However we are in a headline driven environment at the moment so anything could sway things in either direction. Also waiting on whether or not Trump starts to impose tarriffs on February 1st as promised. I'm still a fan of the SPY February calls at some point but we may have missed it. Gold rallied today as the futures climbed $56 to close at a new all time high. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates had a slight decline. The XAU was up 6 points and GDX added 1 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. I missed this move higher in GDX but it is too late to try the calls now. Short term overbought for an extended period of time so I won't be chasing it. I'll try and wait for GDX to reach short term oversold before attempting the calls here again. Or perhaps wait for GDX to return to its short term up trend line at around the 38 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The short term indicators here are turning down in oversold territory. I still think that the VIX is heading lower. Both Europe and what was open in Asia finished higher. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

Hanging around with a negative bias today as the Dow lost 136 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Fed didn't move interst rates as expected and there were no surprises during the speech. The NASDAQ was the leader moving lower but the losses were not sharp. Waiting on more earnings and the inflation data out Friday. The S&P 500 remains in short term overbought territory with some of the indicators beginning to track sideways. I'm still waiting for a decent signal one way or the other but leaning on the call side. Option premiums remain elevated with plenty of time left in the February option cycle. The market also is waiting on the threat of US tarriffs scheduled for February 1st. We'll continue to watch and wait for now. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/8. Volume remains light for the gold shares. GDX is still short term overbought as it has been for at least a couple of weeks. This won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today. The daily candlestick chart here still looks like it wants to go lower but I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Europe and what was open in Asia were up for the most part. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back to the upside for the overall market and the Dow rose 136 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation idex is moving up. We got another signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within two days and we got that move today. The NASDAQ climbed back 2%. Was yesterday just a one day wonder for the NASDAQ? We'll see as we move forward. The fact that we didn't see any downside follow through is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and some of the indicators have turned back up. We've got to get through the Fed tomorrow and perhaps that will be a non-event for a change. Inflation data due on the last day of the month. The market also has to navigate the possibility of Trumps tariffs over the weekend if that comes to pass. Technically we don't have a signal at the moment so patience is required for now. I'm still in favor of the SPY February calls at some point. Gold was up $32 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rtes finished flat. The XAU was up 1 1/8 and GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. I'd expect some movement in the gold shares tomorrow in reaction to whatever the Fed decides to do or say. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and the short term indicators have rolled back over. Can't say for sure where this indicator is heading next but the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. That would bode well for stocks. Most of the Asian markets will be on holiday for the rest of this week. What was open finished mixed. Europe was generally higher. We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed announcement tomorrow.

A huge gap lower for most of the major stock indices but not the Dow as it gained 289 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. Tech stocks got crushed as the NASDAQ fell 3%. The S&P 500 dipped around 1 1/2% on a big week for earnings and economic data. We've got the Fed and inflation data later on in the week. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over with room to go lower. Not exactly sure what we'll see next but I still like the idea of the SPY February calls. I'll be looking to purchase some this week if we see some more weakness. Gold dropped $36 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were lower. The XAU lost 3 1/8, while GDX slipped 5/8. Volume was light. The gold shares did come off of their worst levels on the session. GDX remain short term overbought so we will wait for an oversold reading here before thinking about the calls again. That's the theory for now anyway. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up above the 20 level but then fell back to close below there. It was still 3 points higher on the day which fits with the overall market decline. The short term indicators here have turned back up with room to go. There is a big gap on he VIX daily chart now as well. I'm still in the camp of waiting for the Fed to get out of the way before taking on the next trade. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A little selling today to close out the week as the Dow fell 140 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Nothing dramatic to the downside but the NASDAQ was the underperformer. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that pans out on Monday. The technical picture for the S&P 500 hasn't changed. Still short term overbought and staying that way. We'll get the Fed and some inflation data next week so there will be reasons for market movement. I'm still in the camp for the SPY February calls so hopefully we'll see some pullback to get the chance at that idea. Not sure that the technical indicators will get all the way back to oversold though. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was down and interest rates wre slightly lower. The XAU was up almost 2 points and GDX rose 3/8. Volume was light. Still short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. Short term oversold and staying there. Not sure what's coming up next here for the VIX. We've been in a two week rally mode for stocks and I don't think that its over anytime soon. The technicals put in a decent bottom and it is just a matter of how high things will go here in my view. The extra week in the February option cycle has kept the premiums high. There is no rush to put the next trade on and we may have already missed it if the market continues to go straight up. Patience for now as we'll most likely let the Fed get out of the way before doing anything. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Asia and Europe finished out the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up, up and away we go as the Dow gained 408 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Dow again led the way here. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. The other major indices should get there too. The S&P is overbought and staying that way. Looks like I missed out on the SPY February calls but we'll see. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains in overbought territory. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was off slightly. Still short term oversold on the indicators here. The VIX can stay oversold for extended periods of time and this may be one of those times. Todays post is short as I need to take a rest. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Moving up as the Dow rose 131 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative though so perhaps the market is due for a rest. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus. The S&P 500 flirted with closing at a new all time high but just missed. The short term indicators here are mostly overbought. I still like the idea of the SPY February calls but we'll have to see some kind of selling in order to get a chance to purchase them. Plenty of time left in the February option cycle. You could argue that the best time to get the calls has passed and I can't really say that is wrong. But we'll wait for a technical signal before doing anything. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a little higher along with interest rates. The XAU dipped 3/4 and GDX was barely lower. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat for the session. Still short term oversold here. The Bollinger bands on the VIX are starting to converge and we'll keep an eye on that. The VIX remains below the 50 and 200 day moving averages. As earnings continue to be reported they will get stocks moving as will the latest headline out of the White House. That is the environmment at the moment. I'll probably wait until after the Fed next week to take a position. I'm still in the calls camp going forward. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The rally has legs as the Dow climbed 538 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow continues to lead the way. The S&P 500 had a decent gain with some of its short term indicators in overbought territory. The NASDAQ lagged. I'm still looking at the SPY February calls for the next trade but would like to see a pullback in order to purchase. May not happen at this rate. Looking for new all time highs for the S&P as we move forward. Gold was up seven bucks on the futures. The US dollar had a big drop and interest rates dipped. The XAU gained 3 1/8 and GDX was up 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. GDX has broken through the down trend line that was in effect and is now short term overbought. It can stay overbought during rallies. GDX is now above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Might try the February calls here if we get a snap back to the line just broken. Not completely sold on that idea though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower which fits an up market. Short term oversold here. Not sure what's next for the VIX but it can remain oversold for a while at times. Stocks are in rally mode. I believe that calls are the way to go here. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher in overnight trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

More buying to finish off the week as the Dow rose 334 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Once again the NASDAQ led the way higher and htat's a plus. The S&P 500 broke above the resistance of its short term down trend line. The short term indicators here are moving higher. I'm still looking for new all time highs for the S&P in the coming weeks. I'm looking at the SPY February calls but the premiums are pricey. Declines can be purchased in my view going forward. We will look to get some calls on weakness if we see any. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up a buck and GDX rose 1/8. Volume was light. GDX is short term overbought on some of the indicators. It is trying to get through both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. GDX now has a short term up trend line in place that has held so far. It has also broken through the down trend line on the weekly chart and the indicators here have turned back up. Perhaps it is time to take a closer look at the calls here. Or we can continue to wait for GDX to return to the longer term up trend line at 30. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is still hanging around both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term oversold here but not completely. Quite a comeback for the stock market this week. The weekly candlestick charts for the major indices now look bullish. Only a complete reversal to the downside whould change things next week. I don't see that happening. Hopefully we'll get an opportunity to purchase some SPY calls. A long weekend here in the US and I'll have plenty of time to go over all the charts. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Treading water today with the exception of the NASDAQ as the Dow fell 68 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now moving higher. Sideways trading action this Thursday ahead of option expiration. It's also before a long holiday weekend in the US as the markets will be closed on Monday. The NASDAQ fell the most today and that is not a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a small loss as it is right up against the longer term down trend line on a daily basis. The short term indicators here are at mid-range. My guess is that we'll get through that line in short order but maybe not tomorrow. Sometime next week at the latest or else my prognosis here is wrong. I also believe we are in the beginning of a multi-week rally for the S&P. Gold was up $30 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. That is two days in a row now that gold had good moves higher and the gold shares basically did nothing. Not a good sign for the gold share bulls. I'm on the sidelines with regards to trading the GDX options for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today as it stalls on both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. No clear signal from the short term indicators here. The game plan for now is to let expiration Friday pass and head into the February option cycle which has an extra week on it. So premiums will be high. I'll be looking at the SPY calls again as I think that we are heading to new all time highs for the S&P. I could be wrong. Europe and Asia finished higher. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a blast off from the start as the inflation data was just a touch soft and the Dow climbed 703 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. It should continue higher from here as the zero line area has held for now. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. We had a big gap the open and continued on from there. The S&P 500 has made it back to its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators are now moving up. It is almost back to the longer term down trend line that is in place. We will probably get through there soon and on to new all time highs in my opinion. I sold the SPY January calls that I had for a 75% profit. Could have done even better than that but I took the gift that the market gave me. This trade had a bad entry and a not so good exit and still somehow came out on top. Gold was up $35 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU rose 3/4 and GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. GDX is now barely above the down trend line that's been in place since last October. It is also short term overbought on some of the indicators. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was sharply lower and the short term indicators are moving down. The VIX has made it back down to its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The VIX seems to be implying that the rally will continue. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Bouncing around today to another mixed bag finish but the Dow gained 221 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The NASDAQ was lower again and the S&P 500 had another slight gain. A lot will hinge on tomorrrows inflation report in my view. If it comes in strong things will get ugly. If it comes in weak we could see a nice up move as short covering will be required. Of course I'm hoping for the latter as I'm still holding on to the SPY January calls at a loss. We did manage to break the shortest down trend line in the S&P today but could not get any traction beyond that. The short term indicators for the S&P remain oversold but not completely so. We'll see what happens tomorrow morning and take it from there. Gold rose $13 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained flat. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX climbed 7/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX turned back up. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The shorter term trading usually requires more attention than a longer term idea. The VIX was lower today but some of the short term indicators are still pointing up. Not sure what to expect next here as the VIX is above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages but below the 20 level. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan and Europe up as well except for the FTSE. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and try to manage whatever tomorrow brings.

A mixed Monday to begin the week as the Dow was higher and the NASDAQ lower. The most watched index gained 358 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. We had one day upside reversals in some of the major averages today as the market gapped down at the open. The S&P 500 was one of the indexes that had an upside reversal. This is important for the bulls because the S&P is bouncing off of its longer term up trend line that goes back to 2023. If the S&P can hang in here I believe that we'll be moving higher medium term. We'll probably know by Wednesday when the inflation data comes in. The short term indicators for the S&P remain oversold. My SPY January calls are still losers with only four days to go. They are so far out of the money that it will take some strong gains to perhaps make it back to break even. Another downside day will wipe them out. At this point I'll most likely hold them until the CPI on Wednesday. Gold dropped $35 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost almost 3 points and GDX was down 5/8. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have rolled over while others have simply stalled. The down trend line from last October remains in place on GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished lower today after rising above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are beginning to head sideways with some at the mid-range level. So the VIX could go either way from here. My hope would be that the VIX heads lower from here as the overall market rises. However hope is not a trading strategy. My timing on getting the SPY January calls was not good. The summation index is dancing around the zero line so there is still a chance of a major drop. It is options expiration week so anything goes. Europe and Asia opened the week lower. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The jobs report came in better than expected but good news was bad news for the stock market as the Dow lost 696 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving back down. Most of the major stock indices lost at least 1 1/2% on the session. The S&P 500 lost over ninety points and the short term indicators are moving lower. Not yet completely oversold on the S&P. My idea for the SPY january calls seems to be a mistake. However I did purchase some of them today despite the decline. This looks like an ill timed trade as it is showing a loss with only five days left in the January option cycle. The S&P 500 now lies on its up trend line that began back in October of 2023. Whether or not it holds on here will determine the outcome of this SPY trade. It appears as if the market is going to continue lower though as the summation index is falling below the zero line. I can't say that I wasn't warned. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on about average volume. Both finished well off of their best levels on the day. GDX met resistance at the short term down trend line and 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are beginning to stall. Gold up and the gold shares not following is not a plus for the gold share bulls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I probably should have just stayed on the sidelines with the current market environment. The signal to attempt the SPY calls here was not as strong as the most recent one that we saw last week. I'll be lucky to get out of this trade with a small loss and that may not even be possible. The VIX jumped today and the short term indicators are now moving up with plenty of room to go higher. This would be another reason to remain bearish heading into next week. Still below the 20 level but just about ready to head north of there with a repeat of todays price action. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend to get ready for Monday morning. Asia and Europe closed lower to finish the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Just hanging around today as the Dow rose 106 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still in a sideways trend. The Dow was the outperformer today. The NASDAQ had a small loss and the S&P 500 a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. I put in a few orders for the SPY January calls today trying to get the price that I wanted. None were filled. If we get early selling on Friday I might take a look at this idea again. Or it could be too late. The market is closed tomorrow ahead of the jobs report and there are only six days left in the January option cycle. So the risk of any option trade here is high. Might have to remain on the sidelines. Gold was up $14 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU climbed 3 1/2, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. GDX is getting close to the down trend line that is in effect at 36.5. It also is nearing both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Not yet short term overbought on GDX so perhaps it will make it to that down trend line. Mentally I'm feeling like I want to take on the SPY call trade but the signal isn't as strong as I'd like it. I also do not want to make a trade just to do it. I can always just wait until the February cycle. It's something to think about on Thursday. The VIX was just a bit lower today. The short term indicator picture here is mixed with an oversold bias. The VIX is above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The daily candlestick chart here looks like that it wants to go lower which would be a boost for stocks. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll take a break tomorrow and get ready for Friday morning.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 178 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. It was a one day downside reversal for stocks as we had a gap higher at the open and then sold off for the rest of the day. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. Some of the short term indicators here have turned back down from the mid-range level. It puts our bullish bias here in question. We did want to see some selling in order to purchase the SPY January calls and we certainly got that today. I'm still wary of the summation index and the zero line but I do think that it will hold. I will probably place an overnight order for the SPY calls unless the futures sell off hard tonight. We'll see. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 7/8 and GDX rose 1/2. Volume was on the light side. The gold shares finished off of their best levels on the day. The short term indicators for GDX are around mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits a down market. Most of teh short term indicators here remain in the oversold area. The VIX remains below the 20 level but if it was to start to rise from here it would spell trouble for stocks. So we are in a tough trading environment right now. Trading on Wednesday followed by a day off followed by the employment report. I suppose remaining on the sidelines is a possibity as well. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A positive start to the week for the overall market but not the Dow as it fell 25 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We had a big gap higher to get things going but then eventually sold off for the rest of the day. Even so the NASDAQ led the way with a gain of over 1%. The S&P 500 did cut its gain in more than half for the session. The short term indicators here are still moving up. It looked like we missed our chance for the SPY January calls but the S&P was turned back by its short term down trend line of resistance at around the 6000 level. I suspect that we'll get through that area at some point before option expiration. So if we continue lower in the near term that might give us the opportunity to purchase some SPY January calls. That is the game plan at the moment. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU dipped 1 1/3, while GDX was off 3/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to roll over. No GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower but not by much. Still hanging around the 200 day moving average here. The short term indicators on the VIX are beginning to track sideways. Not sure what's next here but I would not be surprised if the VIX continues lower. One less trading day this week and the jobs report looms on Friday. Running out of time in the January option cycle but if things line up I'll be trying the SPY calls. Asia was mixed with big losses in Japan and India. Europe was higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Buying was the order of the day as the Dow gained 339 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around and I believe that it will be successful. The NASDAQ led the way up and that is a plus. The S&P 500 rose 1 1/4%. The short term indicators here have turned back up for the most part. Declines can now be bought in my opinion. I think that the zero line will hold here on the summation index. I did place an order overnight for the SPY January calls but it wasn't filled. I will try again next week if we see some selling. There is one less day in the January option cycle now as the markets will be closed next Thursday in mourning of former president Jimmy Carter. So the timing of any trade will be even more critial than usual. But it looks like a double bottom on the S&P daily chart for now. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. No GDX trades in mind for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators on the VIX are turning lower. The VIX is back to its 200 day moving average. I'm guessing that the VIX will continue to decline and htat stocks will move higher. I could be wrong. We didn't get the Santa Claus rally this year and that is a cause for concern in the near term. Beyond that however it doesn't have a good forecasting record. Years ending in the number 5 usually are good for the stock market but that didn't happen in 2015. There are always exceptions to any rule. For now we are sticking with the idea of a SPY January call trade to be made at some point next week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Certainly an interesting day to begin the new year as the Dow fell 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The day began with a rally that then faded. Another rally was attempted and then there was a sharp drop only to try and meander back to positive territory but we didn't make it. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the worst scenario. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had small losses. The short term indicators for the S&P are oversold but not completely. They may be trying to turn around here. One of our short term indicators is flashing a buy signal. I'm still considering the SPY January calls for a short term trade here but did not have the guts to try it today. The proximity of the summation index to the zero line is a factor. However I might have the courage to try that idea tomorrow. We'll see. Gold was up $30 on the futures most likely as a reaction to the terror attack in the US. The US dollar was higher as well and interest rates finished flat. The gold shares found a bid as the XAU climbed 5 3/4 and GDX was up 1 3/8. Volume was a bit above average. It was the best day for GDX in a while and its short term indicators are now moving up. There is a down trend line in place here that comes in at around the 37 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher but off from its best levels on the day. The short term indicators for the VIX are trending sideways. It is above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. I can make a case for the VIX moving lower from here but it is not cast in stone. I'll take another look at things tonight and then decide if I want to try the SPY calls. Many of the foreign markets remained closed overnight but those that were open were weaker in general. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The market finished 2024 on a down note as the Dow dipped 29 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 was down and the short term indicators here are still heading lower. That said I was looking at the SPY January calls today for a short term trade. My guess is that 2025 will start off with some buying and that perhaps the S&P is putting in a double bottom on the daily chart. However since we are just about to go through the zero line on the summation index, I remained on the sidelines. I'll rethink this idea on the holiday tomorrow. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on pretty light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX ended the day little changed. The short term indicators here are beginning to move sideways. Not sure what's next in store for the VIX. 2024 is coming to a close. It was another profitable trading year but the profits were less than they could have been as the second half of the year saw too many losses. As always the results begin and end with the trader himself or herself. The work and effort have to be constant. Moving forward regardless of results is a must. I'll do my best to have positive returns again in 2025. Asia trended lower and Europe was generally higher overnight. Happy New Year.

Once again the market had a big gap lower to begin the day only to spend the rest of the session trying to make up for lost ground. The Dow fell 418 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower to the zero line. I'm not sure if the line will hold or we are on the verge of collapse. Interesting times. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 dropped over 1%. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned lower and it closed below the 50 day moving average. Only one day left in 2024 before we move on to the new year. The Santa Claus rally has three days left to turn into a rally because early gains in this time period have been wiped out. It is looking more and more like the 3 day light volume rally we recently witnessed was nothing more than a snap back to the broken short term up trend line in the S&P 500. However if things find a way to turn back up here that idea will be negated. It looks like we'll have to let the market tell us which way it wants to go. Gold was off $9 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU fell 2 1/2 and GDX lost 1/2. Volume was shy of average. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. I'm not considering any gold share trades at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and again finished well of of the highs for the session. The short term indicators have started to turn higher but not with any conviction. The most recent time this occurred it led to lower VIX readings for a couple of weeks which supported stocks. Not sure if we'll see a repeat of that this time around. Europe and Asia were generally lower to begin the week. We'll close out the trading for 2024 tomorrow.

What was supposed to be a quiet week was anything but that today as the Dow fell 333 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving down. Which could turn into a real problem considering how close it is to the zero line. The recent three day rally on light volume could have been a snap back to the up trend line that was broken in the S&P. We had a gap lower at the open but the S&P 500 did make it up from the lows of the session and bounced off of its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are beginning to roll over though. Todays decline was led by the NASDAQ which lost 1 1/2%. So we are now left with more questions than answers going forward. Gold dropped $22 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates were higher for the most part. The XAU fell a little over a point, while GDX shed around 1/4. Volume was light. GDX is short term oversold and staying there which is never a good sign. I'm still in the camp of waiting for GDX to return to its longer term up trend line at around 29-30. But as lawys things could change. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but well off the highs for the session. This leads me to perhaps believe that today was a one off for the stock market. The short term indicators on the VIX are starting to move sideways, not up. So we have to be careful not to get too bearish even though the summation index is near the zero line. There will be plenty of work to do and charts to consider over the weekend. More of the traders will return next week even though it is another holiday week for New Years day. So hopefully we can get a better idea of where things are going. Europe and Asia finished higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Quiet post-holiday trading as the Dow rose 28 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is starting to try and turn around. The Dow was the leader today. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted tiny losses. The market could be in a wait until next year mode. We can't force any trades here. Not yet short term overbought on the S&P but the indicators are beginning to stall. I'm remaining on the sidelines for now. Gold was up almost twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on very light volume. GDX remains short term oversold and in a sideways pattern for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today. Short term oversold on some of the indicators here but not completely so. Not sure exactly what's next for the VIX. One trading day left in a holiday week with players away from the office. Not a time for any kind of bold action in my mind. I'll simply wait it out. Asia was slightly higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Santa Claus is coming to town as the Dow rallied 390 points on expected light volume for the half day session. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way again and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up. It seems like last weeks steep decline has already been forgotten. At this rate the S&P will hit new all time highs before the new year. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX had slight moves one way or the other on very light volume. GDX remains short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved down and is now below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Not yet oversold on the short term indicators here. Markets will be closed tomorrow and probably thinly traded for the rest of this week. Europe and Asia finished mixed. Merry Christmas.

The Santa Claus rally appears to have started a day early as the Dow gained 66 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. The market is in holiday mode as many players are not at their desks. I expect things will be biased to the upside for the time being but we'll see. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. Some are at mid-range and others remain on the oversold side. We've just rolled into the December option cycle so premiums are high. I'll be on hold until next year for the next trade unless a really good signal appears before years end. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves higher on light volume. GDX remains short term oversold. Is it possible that GDX is forming a short term bottom for an attempt at the January calls? Perhaps. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and the short term indicators continue to move lower. It closed right at the 50 day moving average. I'm guessing the VIX continues lower as stocks go higher in the near term. Tomorrow markets close early on Christmas Eve before a day off on Wednesday. So you can see that there is no hurry to put on a trade. Sometimes you just have to be patient in the game and I believe that right now is one of those times. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed to start the week. I'll keep an eye on any overnight developments.

Finally a bounce as the Dow gained 498 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading down and approaching the zero line. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions and we got that move today. The inflation data came in lighter than expected and traders breathed a sigh of relief. The question now is this just a snap back to the up trend line just violated in the S&P 500 before we move lower or not? I'm inclined to believe that we've seen the worst for this move down as some of our technical indicators are at levels associated with bottoms. That doesn't mean we won't get some backing and filling or even a retest of the recent lows. However the close proximity to the zero line on the summation index is a concern. I do think that it will hold up this time around and an unraveling of the market is not going to happen. I could be wrong. We've got a holiday week on tap and things should settle down. The Santa Claus rally will also be due. The market will have a say in whether our projections are correct as time moves on. Gold was up $35 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume here was good. No GDX trades in mind right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and is now back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here have rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. The VIX is another indicator that is pointing to the decline being over as it doesn't stay overbought for long. My guess is that we will see higher prices or at least sideways price action for stock prices in the near term. Plenty of things to look at over the weekend but I'll probably wait until next year for the next trade. Holiday mode approaching. It has been quite a volatile week. Europe and Asia were slightly lower to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Stabilization was the best we could do today as the Dow finally broke its losing streak by finishing ahead 15 points on heavy volume again. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading down with conviction and is now approaching the zero line. This could spell even more trouble as the market simply falls apart when crossing the zero line on the summation index. It is a rare event. We can say that the market already fell apart yesterday. We've got option expiration tomorrow as well so things will be volatile. Throw in the inflation data before the market opens and you see what kind of day it could be. We are still long overdue for some kind of bounce but I've been saying that for days. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had slight losses ahead of tomorrows fireworks. The short term indicators for the S&P are still pointing down with room to go before hitting oversold. I'm not sure what will happen next but we certainly can't rule anything out. I'm on the sidelines probably for the rest of the year when it comes to the option trading. Too many mistakes in the second half of the year has cut into my profits. Gold dropped $40 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates were generally higher. The XAU was off a point and GDX slipped over 1/8. Volume was average. Short term oversold for GDX and staying that way for now. The fundamental picture for gold has turned negative at this point. If and when it gets to the 30 level is where we'll take a look at the GDX calls again. Mentally I'm doing OK considering yesterdays trading debacle. The VIX was lower today as the the market didn't collapse again. Still short term overbought here. Not sure what to expect next with the VIX but it usually doesn't stay overbought for an extended period of time. However we are in a crazy moment for the markets so anything goes here as well. If we can get through tomorrow we have a holiday week coming up when things usually settle down. Europe and Asia were down as traders are heading for the exits. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Fed cut rates as expected but the market didn't care and got clobbered. The Dow fell over a thousand points on heavy volume. 1123 points was the final total. The advance/declines were 13 to 1 negative. The summation index is falling lower. We knew that there was something fishy going on but we didn't know how much it would stink. Ten days in a row now negative on the Dow and I cannot remember that happening in my trading life. The S&P 500 has broken its up trend line from August and closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are moving down with room to go. Not yet short term oversold but it appears that's where it is headed. I was still looking for an oversold bounce that never came. When the S&P reached its up trend line, I purchased some of the December calls. That was another mistake as the market was in free fall which I did not acknowledge even though it was staring me right in the face. Realizing that this trade was a mistake, I got out but not before incurring yet another loss. A negative 75% on the trade but thankfully there wasn't a lot of money involved. The S&P 500 shed over 175 points. The NASDAQ dropped 3 1/2%. They are catching up with the other falling indices that are already oversold and staying that way. The original idea of the SPY puts was a valid one. Gold lost over fifty bucks. The US dollar jumped up along with interest rates. The XAU fell 6 3/4, while GDX lost 1 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. GDX is short term oversold and staying that way. The longer term up trend line here comes in at 30 and that's much lower from here. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated once again as I could not perform properly when it came to todays trade. Sitting on the sidelines or going with the puts was the correct path. The short term trades seem to be my downfall so maybe I will have to eliminate them in the coming new year. The warning signs that something different was going on in the market was there but I failed to heed the signals. The continued negative breadth finally came to fruition. The VIX had a huge move higher and closed above 27. Short term overbought on the VIX now. Above the 20 level and that will lead to more volatility. I certainly did not see that coming. Two days left in the December option cycle and inflation data out on Friday. I'll just sit back and observe at this point. Asia was mixed and Europe flat overnight. I'd expect some selling to occur overseas tonight. Interesting times.

Once again sellers had the upper hand as the Dow fell 267 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. A last half hour bounce kept things from being worse. Something weird is going on here for sure as the Dow has lost ground for nine days in a row while the S&P 500 has traded sideways. The Russell 2000 has been in a steady decline along with the New York Composite. But the NASDAQ has had a slight rise. Oversold on some indices without a bounce and that can be dangerous as in even steeper falling prices. But I am favoring the SPY December calls for a short term trade and might purchase some tomorrow ahead of the Fed. Today in fact may have been the time to get them. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over with plenty of room to move lower. But I do believe that some kind of upside bounce is long overdue and we should see one before option expiration on Friday. I could be wrong. I might just stay on the sidelines as well because my track record with the short term trades is pretty poor. Gold was off $9 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates finished flat again. The XAU lost 1 1/8 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was light. GDX finished below its 200 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators are rising but are not yet short term overbought. So there could be a bit more selling before we see some upside according to the VIX. Which would make it hard to purchase the SPY calls with only three days left in the December option cycle. So you can see the predicament here. However I can always wait for the market to settle down as well. I'll ponder what to do overnight. Needless to say the Fed tomorrow will get things moving one way or the other. Asia and Europe were lower as perhaps we're seeing a worldwide retreat at the moment. We'll see if we have a wild Wednesday on the agenda.

Still a mixed picture for stocks as the Dow fell yet again to the tune of 110 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading down. The overall market did better than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 sporting gains on the day. The gains would of been better but we had a last half hour drop. Eight days in a row lower for the Dow and it is very oversold on a short term basis. There will be a decent bounce here and soon. But we don't know if it will be just an oversold bounce or an actual bottom. The market behavior is even more puzzling that usual right now. Plus we have options expiration week, the Fed on Wednesday and inflation data on expiration Friday to deal with. The trading will have to be nimble if attempted. I'm not sure what to do at this point so I might have to remain on the sidelines. I did favor the SPY puts but now I'm thinking perhaps to try and catch the bounce that is overdue. The trading is never easy. Gold was off $5 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was pretty light. GDX has made it back to its 200 day moving average. It is also on the lower Bollinger band. Not all of its short term indicators are oversold. This would be the spot to try the GDX calls but I'm not going to do it. Perhaps going out to the January option cycle would be a better idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with an overall higher market. The short term indicators have ramped up with room to go. Not sure what's going on with the VIX. So here we are with 4 days left in the December option cycle. Retail sales out tomorrow which should get things going in the morning. Waiting on the Fed and the expected 1/4 point rate reduction Wednesday. The market reaction to that will be the key for the rest of that session and perhaps longer. I'll reconsider what to do tonight. Asia and Europe were lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We had a gap higher at the open but sellers continue to be in charge as the Dow fell 86 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ had a slight gain and the S&P 500 finished flat. Looks like it is too late for the SPY December puts but we'll see. It has been a mixed picture for stocks lately. Over the past week or so the Dow, New York Composite and the Russell 2000 have dropped back toward their 50 day moving averages. They are short term oversold. Seven days in a row lower for the Dow. However the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just moved sideways. They remains short term overbought. Something has to give soon. Not sure if it will be a rally to even more overbought levels for the NASDAQ and S&P. Or perhaps they will actively join in on the decline that we've seen elsewhere. The fact that the Dow can't even get a bounce from oversold levels is a concern. Gold dropped over forty dollars today. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates continue to rise. The XAU fell 3 2/3 and GDX dropped a point. Volume was about average. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing down and it is almost back to the 200 day moving average again. Recent volatility in this index makes it hard to trade right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished a bit lower today with a mixed market. The short term indicators here are trending higher but not with conviction. Not sure what to expect with the VIX next. We've got the Fed coming in next week along with options expiration so it should be interesting. Short term trades will be the only choice with little time to go in the December option cycle. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the SPY options next week. Europe and Asia wre both lower on Friday with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Now it appears that sellers have the upper hand as the Dow fell for the sixth day in a row. The most watched index dropped 234 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Although it wasn't deep sell off by any means the inability to have more than a one day rally is concerning for the bulls. A bounce at the least is due for the Dow. The S&P 500 was off over thirty points. The short term indicators here have rolled over. It now looks like the SPY put trade has been missed. Unless we see some upside heading into the Fed meeting next week I may have to just continue to be on the sidelines. Gold slumped over fifty bucks today as the price movement here lately has been big both ways. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates again. The XAU lost 5 3/4, while GDX shed 1 3/8. Volume was average. Staying away from GDX has probably been a good thing with the recent volatility there being short and sweet both ways. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but we didn't see the short term indicators move that much. Not sure what that means. Stocks closed on their lows today and that isn't a positive sign. Running out of time in the December option cycle. The most we can hope for now is a short term trade and that isn't usually where my best efforts occur. Europe finished relatively unchanged and Asia was higher with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The inflation data came in where expected and the overall market took off to the upside. The Dow however did not gain any steam as it fell 99 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way higher by far and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a good day and the short term indicators here have turned up. The SPY December put trade is still on the radar but it will have to wait until next week if things set up for it. Gold was up over $30 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares rallied this time around. The XAU gained 5 1/3, while GDX was up over a point. Volume was average. GDX has made it back to the 50 day moving average. It looks like I've missed out on a GDX call trade again but there wasn't exactly a clear signal. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and that fits the overall market rally. The short term indicators here remain oversold. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. More inflation data due tomorrow. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

More selling ahead of tomorrows inflation data as the Dow fell 154 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. A lack of buyers as the market plays a waiting game. The Dow led the way lower as it has been lately. That isn't the most bearish scenario. If we continue lower tomorrow our SPY put trade idea will have been missed. If we move higher perhaps we can try it before option expiration. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. I have no idea one way or the other about the inflation data out tomorrow. The market reaction will be the key. Technically speaking the S&P remains short term overbought but could be in the process of rolling over. Gold jumped over thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Gold up and the gold shares going nowhere isn't bullish. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. I still don't have any GDX trades in mind for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today as its short term indicators headed sideways. It will be interesting to see what happens here tomorrow. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how tomorrow goes.

Selling to start the week as the Dow fell 240 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower but not with conviction. The S&P 500 was down but remains short term overbought. The short term indicators have turned down though. Have we missed the chance for the SPY December puts? Perhaps. We will know for sure after the inflation data on Wednesday and the market reaction to it. Patience for now. Gold was up twenty bucks as geo-political tensions rose over the weekend. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 4 1/2, while GDX jumped 1 1/8. Volume was good to the upside although the gold shares were off of their best levels for the day. Some of the short term indicators for GDX turned back up. Not sure now if it's headed back to the 200 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated if I've missed the SPY put trade. However I can't let that affect me going forward. I do still have another trade idea for the Fed meeting next week but that is pretty risky as there will be only three days left in the December option cycle. The VIX was higher today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here have turned up. If the VIX continues higher, the market should keep heading lower and the SPY put trade will be missed. Hasn't happened yet but now that possiblity exists. Asia and Europe were mixed to begin the week. We'll see if we get follow through selling tomorrow.

Todays employment data came in where expected but the markets continued to be mixed. The Dow fell 123 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is turning lower but not with conviction. Once again the NASDAQ led thw way up and that remains a positive going forward. The S&P 500 was higher as well. It still remains short term overbought. Lately whatever selling we do see has been met with buyers. I canceled my open order for the SPY December puts. I'll probably try this idea again at some point next week. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU lost almost 3 points and GDX fell 2/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled back down with room to go. It appears to headed back to the 200 day moving average at 36. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators remain deeply oversold. Not sure how much longer that condition can go on but trying to predict when it will end is a guessing game. Our recent sell signals from some of our other indicators simply haven't worked. However I'm still in the camp that the SPY December puts will work at some point before option expiration in two weeks. I'll be checking the charts as usual this weekend. Asia and Europe finished the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Overall some minor selling ahead of tomorrows jobs report as the Dow fell 248 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the worst scenario. Today may or may not be a near term top but I believe that we are getting close to it. I did place an order for the SPY Decmeber puts overnight but it was not filled. I'm leaving the order out there. If we get a rally off of the employment report it might get filled. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. Gold dropped $22 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX finished flat. Volume was pretty light again. The short term indicators here are above mid-range and trending sideways. Not sure what the next move for the gold shares is so we'll stay on the sidelines here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat and remains short term oversold. The Bollinger bands are now beginning to flatten out. Not sure exactly what to expect from this indicator either. There is still plenty of time left in the December option cycle for a trade. I do think that the SPY puts will work in the remaining timeframe but the entry has to be good. Whether or not I can figure it out remains the question. I do not think that the market will continue to rally for the next two weeks but I could be wrong. Europe and Asia were up last night with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll see how the markets react to the jobs data tomorrow.

The market continues to move higher as the Dow gained 308 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. New all time closing highs for the big three of the Dow, S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ. No overhead resistance. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and stayng that way. I wonder how much longer that this can go on but it is usually longer than you think. The S&P is now up against its upper Bollinger band. I do still want to try the SPY December puts at some point. However it is hard to step in front of the current rally. Gold rose $6 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates slipped. The XAU fell a point while GDX was barely lower. Volume was extremely light for the gold shares. No interest here despite plenty of geo-political turmoil around the world. Still no GDX trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a little higher despite the rise in stocks which doesn't fit. The last time this occurred there was a drop in the market the follwong day. Getting very close to the lower Bollinger band on the VIX. It also appears that the short term indicators are trying to turn around. Still waiting on Fridays employment report so tomorrow could be a wait and see affair for the market. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

More of the same today as the Dow underperformed and the overall market trended sideways. The most watched index fell 76 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to trend higher. The NASDAQ once again led the way up and that's a plus. The S&P 500 had a slight gain and remains short term oversold. I again placed an order for the SPY December puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. Seems like we are in a waiting game for the next catalyst on Friday which would be the jobs report. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was a little lower and interest rates bumped up. The XAU jumped 4 1/2, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was light. Not sure what's going on here. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned up with room to go. No GDX trades in mind right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged today. The short term indicators remain oversold however the Bollinger bands are beginning to contract. Trying to remain patient for the next trade which I believe will be the SPY puts. The timing, as always, needs to be spot on. If we continue to trend higher into the close on Thursday then I may try those SPY December puts. However there seems to be plenty of liquidity around for now so that idea is not set in stone. Both Europe and Asia were higher again in the overnight trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Hanging around on a Monday following a long weekend as the Dow was off 128 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. Beginning of a new month and waiting on Fridays employment data. The overall market was positive with the NASDAQ leading the way by far. That is a plus for the bulls. A new all time closing high for the NASDAQ as well. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I did place an order for the SPY December puts overnight but it wasn't filled. Might try again tomorrow. The S&P is both short and medium term overbought. But that doesn't mean it can't stay that way. However we do see some sell signals beginning to show up on some of our other indicators. The SPY put trade idea is not without risk but aren't they all? Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU fell 2 1/2 and GDX lost 7/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are still at the mid-range level but are trying to turn down. No GDX trades in mind right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still moving lower and remains short term oversold. It has remained oversold for a while and that conditon won't last forever. For me, it's another vote on the side of trying the index puts. We'll see. Asia and Europe were higher in last nights trade. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

It was the usual post Thanksgiving rally as the Dow rose 188 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. We did have a drop in the last five minutes or the numbers would have been even higher. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I may try the SPY December puts on Monday. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. No GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower and is still short term oversold. Not sure how low the VIX will go here but it is a positive for the market at this point. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. We'll check the charts in the next couple of days and take it from there. It's Friday and time for a rest.

Some pre-holiday selling today as the Dow fell 138 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending up. Inflation data came in where expected. I did place an order for the SPY December puts overnight but it wasn't filled. I have since canceled it. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a positive. The short term indicators for the S&P are starting to curl down but remain in overbought territory. A holiday tomorrow followed but a shortened trading session on Friday. I will probably revisit the SPY put idea at some point next week. Gold was up $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked down. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Once again gold itself was higher and the gold shares didn't do anything. We might have to pass on trading GDX for now. Still mid-range for the short term indicators there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed and remains short term oversold. Perhaps a double bottom is forming there but we won't know for sure as the VIX could simply continue to move lower. Nothing left to do now except enjoy the long holiday weekend. Asia up with the exception of Japan and Europe lower with the exception of the FTSE. Happy Thankgiving everyone.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 123 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The overall market fared better than the Dow and that's a plus. What isn't a plus is the negative breadth numbers. However the market keeps plowing ahead and we must respect price. New all time closing highs for the Dow and the S&P 500. I do still want to try the SPY December puts at some point. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with a little room left to the upside for the indicators. Inflation data out tomorrow and that should provide some movement early in the day. However it is right before the Thanksgiving holiday and I expect thin trading. If we continue to move up into the close on a shortened Friday session, I may try those SPY puts. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar finished slightly higher and interest rates were flat. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are at mid-range. Not sure where gold goes next as it has turned into a headline driven commodity for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains short term oversold. One of the reasons against taking on a put trade here is the low level of the VIX with room to go lower. Not to mention that this indicator remains comfortably below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. But we do have some other of our indicators that are saying the puts are the way to go at least on a short term basis if we continue higher into the weekend. The trading is never easy. We'll see how things go tomorrow and take it from there. Europe and Asia finished lower on Trump tariff talk. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The day began with a gap to the upside but then the market went sideways to lower for the rest of the session. But it only moved lower from a much higher position as the Dow climbed 433 points on very heavy volume. Looks like traders were getting their positions done today before heading out for the rest of the week. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Once again the Dow was the outperformer. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but not at extremes. We'll get inflation data on Wednesday ahead of the holiday. I'm leaning towards the SPY December puts here but the timing as always will be the key. Gold got crushed today as the futures fell $85. The US dollar was lower and interst rates dropped. The XAU lost 4 1/4 and GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. On the sidelines with regards to the gold share options for now. Not exactly sure what is going on with respedt to gold right now. The usual inter-market relationships din't work today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the upside in stocks. It remains oversold but not completely so. I was expecting a quiet week for the market but we certainly didn't see that today. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Sideways to higher for the overall market but the Dow climbed 445 points to a new closing high on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading back up. Both the NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 posted gains but not as much as the Dow. The short term indicators for the S&P continue to grind higher and are not yet overbought. A holiday week coming up and that is usually positive at this time of the year. No SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $33 on the futures to finish its best week in a while. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ended flat. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Once again the gold shares did not follow gold higher. The short term indicators for GDX appear to be beginning to stall. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators are rolling over here which implies more near term gains for stocks. The VIX is also back below its 200 day moving average. It was a good week for stocks following the previous poor showing a week earlier. It looks like the market can build on that next week. I'd expect a quiet week with a holiday on Thursday but you never know. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got the big move anticipated from the McClellan oscillator signal today as the Dow climbed 461 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The Dow led the way today and this isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 had a good day but the NASDAQ was barely positive. The NVDA earnings were a disappointment. The short term indicators for the S&P are edging higher. New all time highs on the way? Maybe but we would like to see the summation index turn around first. We'll see what happens tomorrow ahead of a holiday week for the US. Gold was up another twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up just a bit. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was average. A nice bounce for the gold shares so far this week. A V bottom? We'll know in the coming sessions. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators are still trending on an upward slope. My guess is that they will turn back down and the market will continue higher in the near term. But markets go where they want. Still below the 50 day moving average on the VIX. Still on the sidelines with regards to the next trade as premiums are high and Thanksgiving week is coming up. I expect that many players will take some time off. Patience for now. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Still a mixed picture on Wall street as the Dow gained 139 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The Dow outperformed as the NASDAQ posted a small loss and the S&P 500 finished flat. It was an up and down trading session for most of the day. We got a signal last night for a big move within the next two days from the McClellan oscillator. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. I still think prices are heading higher from here. Perhaps the earnings report from NVDA after the bell can get things going. The short term indicators for the S&P are still trying to turn back up. Gold was up another twenty bucks today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares did not follow the precious metal higher today. That isn't a bullish development. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished higher today which doesn't exactly fit with the market closing prices today. The short term indicators are slowly moving up. Not sure what to expect next from this indicator but it's still below the 50 day moving average. It seems like the market is trying to make up its mind what to do here. Europe finished lower and Asia was up with the exception of Japan. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Once again a mixed bag as the Dow was down and the overall market moved higher. The most watched index fell 120 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving lower. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had one day upside reversals as they gapped lower at the open only to then move higher the rest of the session. The short term indicators for the S&P are trying to turn back up from mid-range levels. I think that they will be successful as I'm still looking for more upside in the near term for stocks. I could be wrong but we'll see in the coming days. Gold was up another $23 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU rose 3 points and GDX was up 7/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with plenty of room to go. Have we missed a GDX call trade here? Perhaps. GDX did break above its short term down trend line today. I'll keep an eye on it here but we'll have to see where it goes for the rest of the week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today despite the gains for the overall market. Not sure what to make of that. Still short term oversold but not completely so. The VIX did remain below its 50 day moving average. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the bell tomorrow for most likely the next big market mover. Trying to remain patient for now. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how Wednesday goes.

A little bounce back in the overall market to begin the week but the Dow fell 55 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still heading lower. The NASDAQ outperformed today. The S&P had a slight gain. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are beginning to stall at mid-range. So things could go either way from here. My guess is that we will start to move back up from here. It is a light week for economic data. The earnings highlight will be NVDA after the bell on Wednesday. Option premiums are high with an extra week in the December cycle. I'm on the sidelines until further notice. Gold jumped $44 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower and interst rates ened the day flat. The XAU gained 6 points, while GDX added 1 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up but it remains oversold. Not sure if today was just an oversold bounce or the beginning of something sustained to the upside. I'm inclined to think that it is the former. Still below the short term down trend line on GDX. Another day like today would get us through there though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below the 200 day moving average. The short term indicators remain oversold. My idea is that the VIX goes lower from here and stocks resume their up trend. We'll see. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

We certainly did not see the usual positive option expiration bias this week as today the Dow fell 305 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The major indices had gaps down at the open and the selling continued for much of the rest of the day. Markets managed to move sideways for the final couple of hours. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over with plenty of room to go. The weekly candlestick chart here suggests at least some sideways price movement unless we see a big rally next week. I was looking for higher prices in the short term and that was wrong. Not sure where we go from here but will have to check all the charts over the weekend. Gold was off another five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was off 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/4. Volume was average. GDX remains short term oversold and is hanging in at its 200 day moving average for now. GDX technically hit a bear market this week as it is down 20% from the recent high. We will try and wait for things to sort themselves here before trying the GDX options again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off of its best levels on the session. The short term indicators here turned up but remain oversold. I thought the VIX was pointing to higher near term stock prices as well and that was incorrect. I'm not sure where it goes from here but it is still far off from the 20 level although it did pop above the 200 day moving average today. This weeks stock price action puts into question whether the election rally will continue. We'll know more as we get into next week. Rolling into the December option cycle and the premiums will be high. I'm on the sidelines for now. Asia mixed and Europe slightly lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower today as the Dow fell 207 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to trend down. Producer prices came in about where expected. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over but remain overbought. I don't think that the rally is finished here but I could be wrong. Expiration Friday on tap tomorrow. Gold was off $13 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished mixed again. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX had a fractional gain. Volume was good. GDX bounced off of its 200 day moving average today. It remains short term oversold with plenty of techncial damage done for the bulls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat despite the drop in stocks. Not sure what that means. The VIX is still short term oversold and staying that way. It still implies higher market prices going forward. Europe higher and Asia lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday turns out tomorrow.

Back and forth today as the Dow rose 47 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. Todays inflation data came in where expected. It was a mixed bag for stocks as the NASDAQ posted a loss on the session. The S&P 500 had a slight gain and remains short term overbought. We are in a waiting mode for now when it comes to the next trade. Two days left in option expiration week. Then we roll into the December option cycle which has an extra week in it plus a Thanksgiving holiday week. So unless we get a very good signal, I'll be sitting things out for a while most likely. Gold was down $26 on the futures. The US dollar was higher yet again and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU dipped 2 1/4 and GDX slipped 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. Short term oversold and staying there for GDX. Almost to the 200 day moving average at the 35 level. GDX has dropped about 20% in around a month from the recent high. That's quite a move in a short period of time. It is probably best to let things settle down in the gold shares before trying to trade them again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and remains short term oversold. It looks like the VIX will stay oversold for a while. There doesn't appear to be anything in the way of the current stock market rally. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll get a Fed chairman speech and inflation data out tomorrow.

Sellers returned today as the Dow fell 382 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. This will have the summation index moving sideways. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. Waiting on tomorrows inflation data. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We are in a watch and wait mode for now. Gold continues to fall as the futures dropped another ten bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU shed 2 1/4, while GDX was off over 1/2. Volume was heavy again to the downside. GDX remains short term oversold and below the lower Bollinger band. Looks like it's on the way to the 200 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Short term oversold and staying there for the VIX. My guess is that it continues sideways to lower for the rest of this week. Not much else to report today. Moving on from yesterdays loss. Haven't seen the usual option expiration week positive bias yet. Asia and Europe were down in last nights trading. We'll see what Wednesday has to offer.

The Dow kept moving higher to start the week as the most watched index gained 304 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The overall market was a bit more subdued as both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 finished little changed. The technical condition for the S&P remains short term overbought and staying that way for now. We've got inflation data on tap this week for the market to deal with along with a Fed chairman speech. It's also option expiration week. So there will be plenty of excuses for the markets to move. Gold got clobbered again today as the futures lost $65. The US dollar was higher and the bond market was closed for Veterans day. The XAU fell 9 points and GDX lost 2 1/3. Volume was very heavy to the downside. My GDX November calls got killed. It was a 95 % loss as the gold shares opened with a huge gap lower. Another poor decision on my part for taking on this trade and the management of it stunk. The best result it got to was break even. GDX has broken the up trend line that began in February. Short term oversold and staying that way. The medium term picture has not made it to oversold yet. It appears that GDX is heading to its 200 day moving average at 35. The longer term bullish up trend line comes in at 29. I don't think that it is heading all the way back there but who knows? Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as my last few trades have been losers. But the markets don't care. As usual the one thing that you have to be able to do in this game is to keep moving on. I doubt I'll be taking on any trades here on expiration week but maybe. A short term SPY put trade would be the choice. But that sounds more like a revenge trade due to todays loss. The VIX was flat today. Still in a short term oversold condition. Not sure what comes next for the VIX but sideways isn't out of the question. It's back to the drawing board for me when it comes to the next trade to take on. Might have to sit on the sidelines for a while. Europe and Asia were higher to start the week with the exception of the Hang Seng. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Still moving higher going into the weekend as the Dow gained 259 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now moving up. The Dow led the way and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Both the NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 had small gains. New all time closing highs all around so we can't feel too bad on the bullish side. The S&P is short term overbought. Moving into option expiration week and there's nothing to prevent us moving up from here. There is no overhead resistance. Not sure how long the rally will last but it's usually longer than you think. Gold was off a dozen on the futures today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The gold shares were lower as the XAU fell 2 1/2 and GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. My GDX November calls got more than cut in half from yesterdays break even level. With only a week to go in these options obviously now I should have sold them yesterday. This will be most likely another loser unless we see some extreme event over the weekend. Still below the down trend line and 50 day moving average for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was still lower today and remains short term oversold. The implication is for more gains in stocks. A big week for the bulls and we'll see if they can build on it going forward. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend but will probably remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY November options. I'll be looking to get out of the GDX call trade with the smallest possible loss. Europe and Asia were generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Fed came and went but the rally continued for the overall stock market. The Dow was the laggard though and finished flat on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn around. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is almost back to being short term overbought again. New all time highs now on a daily basis with no overhead resistance. The bulls are in charge. Gold bounced back $35 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up. However there is a short term down trend line and the 50 day moving average at 40 that needs to be gotten through. Another day like today would do it but that's probably asking a lot. My GDX November calls are back to where I purchased them in this ill timed trade. I should probably be out of this trade tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX continued lower and is now below its 200 day moving average. Short term oversold here as well but the VIX can remain that way for an extended period of time during rallies. There doesn't appear to be anything in the way of further price gains in stocks going forward. Option expiration week is next week and if the usual positive bias shows up we'll see more gains. Europe was higher with the exception of the FTSE and Asia finished mixed. We'll close out quite a trading week tomorrow.

It was a Trump victory in the US election and stock markets exploded to the upside. The Dow, S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ hit new all time highs. The Dow gained 1508 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Stocks rejoiced at the implication of another four years with Trump at the helm of the US government. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P improved and are moving straight up. There is no overhead resistance for the major stock indices. I'm not sure how long the rally lasts but there is nothing in the way for now on higher prices. We've got the Fed tomorrow and a rate cut is widely expected. I missed out on the SPY November calls as I did not want to pay the high premiums for another mistake on my part. Too late for that idea now. Gold got clobbered as the futures lost eighty bucks. The US dollar jumped higher and so did interest rates. The gold shares got slammed with the XAU losing almost 4 points and GDX dropping 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. Considering the drop in gold itself, it could have been worse for the gold shares. Gold was dropping overnight but not as steep as it became today. I should have canceled my open order for the GDX November calls but did not. Yet another mistake. It was filled at the open and is showing a loss. I might be able to cut the loss tomorrow if we get some good news from the Barrick Gold earnings before the bell. The technical picture for GDX has changed as the short and longer term up trend lines have been broken. It remains short term oversold but can remain that way during down trends. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX gapped lower today which fits with a robust stock market. It is now well below the 20 level and its 50 day moving average. The VIX is right by its 200 day moving average and if it can get below that level the rally will have legs. Today we saw an example of how quick things can sometimes change in the market place. We don't often see moves like we saw today but thare is always that potential. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow.

Moving higher on election day as the Dow gained 427 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. Another day of breadth like today would do it. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that is a plus for the bulls. Getting the election put of the way was to be seen a positive for the market and we probably got some of that today. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up with plenty of room to go. I might be premature but this could be the beginning of a rally to new all time highs for the S&P. I did not get any of the SPY November calls here as the option premiums were too high for me but perhaps there will be another chance. Of course one day doesn't make a rally and the election results could change things. But my thinking is that the market will go higher from here regardless. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares did not follow the overall market today. GDX remains on its 50 day moving average and short term oversold. My open order for the GDX November calls is still out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators have turned down. The movement here is another reason to be positive on the market going forward. Still above the 20 level and its 50 day moving average though. Getting below those levels should be an all clear signal for the bulls. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on the election results along with the futures movements tonight and we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Some selling today ahead of an important week as the Dow fell 257 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. We've got the US election and the Fed on tap this week. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 had minor declines. Waiting on results and data. I still like the idea of the SPY calls in a sigh of relief rally once the election has been called. More importantly the S&P is short term oversold and hanging in at the 50 day moving average along with the lower Bollinger band. However the option premiums remain high for the SPY options. If they do move low enough for me I'll probably give this trade a shot. Gold was off a few bucks on teh futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. GDX is hugging its 50 day moving average and is also short term oversold. I did place an order overnight for the GDX November calls but it was not filled. I am leaving the order open. This is a trade that has worked the previous four months heading into option expiration. We'll see if number five follows that pattern. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today. Still in short term overbought territory. Still below the levels of the recent highs for this indicator. It is another reason that leads me to believe that the SPY calls will work here. However if the VIX spikes up from here that trade idea would be dead. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to begin the trading week. We'll see how election Tuesday shapes up.

We did not see follow through selling today but instead got an oversold bounce as the Dow gained 288 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. The jobs report came in weaker than expected. The NASDAQ led the way up but we are in a precarious market position. We do not know if today was just a reaction to relieve the oversold market condition before we head lower or if the decline will end here at the 50 day moving average on the S&P. We are in short term oversold territory on the S&P 500 so you can make the case either way. However todays price action cannot be construed as positive, since the early gains were sold off for the rest of the session. I did place an overnight order for the SPY November calls but it was not filled. I think that I still like this idea but from lower levels on the S&P if we get them. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost almost 2 points and GDX dipped 1/2. GDX is now short term oversold which is what I've been waiting for to consider the calls here again. A call trade on GDX has worked the last three times it got short term oversold in the previous three months. There is nothing to say that it won't work again this time around. GDX is right on its short term trend line though. A break below here would make me want to reconsider this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and some of the short term indicators have turned down. The rise in the VIX did stop at the recent previous levels during the past couple of months. This is another vote for higher stock prices moving forward and trying the SPY November calls next week. That's not to say that the VIX can't simply turn back up and stock prices continue to move lower. The techncial evidence at the moment though suggests that isn't going to happen. There will be plenty to ponder going over the charts this weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.