Friday, November 15, 2024
We certainly did not see the usual positive option expiration bias this week as today the Dow fell 305 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The major indices had gaps down at the open and the selling continued for much of the rest of the day. Markets managed to move sideways for the final couple of hours. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over with plenty of room to go. The weekly candlestick chart here suggests at least some sideways price movement unless we see a big rally next week. I was looking for higher prices in the short term and that was wrong. Not sure where we go from here but will have to check all the charts over the weekend. Gold was off another five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was off 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/4. Volume was average. GDX remains short term oversold and is hanging in at its 200 day moving average for now. GDX technically hit a bear market this week as it is down 20% from the recent high. We will try and wait for things to sort themselves here before trying the GDX options again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off of its best levels on the session. The short term indicators here turned up but remain oversold. I thought the VIX was pointing to higher near term stock prices as well and that was incorrect. I'm not sure where it goes from here but it is still far off from the 20 level although it did pop above the 200 day moving average today. This weeks stock price action puts into question whether the election rally will continue. We'll know more as we get into next week. Rolling into the December option cycle and the premiums will be high. I'm on the sidelines for now. Asia mixed and Europe slightly lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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