Monday, November 04, 2024
Some selling today ahead of an important week as the Dow fell 257 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. We've got the US election and the Fed on tap this week. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 had minor declines. Waiting on results and data. I still like the idea of the SPY calls in a sigh of relief rally once the election has been called. More importantly the S&P is short term oversold and hanging in at the 50 day moving average along with the lower Bollinger band. However the option premiums remain high for the SPY options. If they do move low enough for me I'll probably give this trade a shot. Gold was off a few bucks on teh futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. GDX is hugging its 50 day moving average and is also short term oversold. I did place an order overnight for the GDX November calls but it was not filled. I am leaving the order open. This is a trade that has worked the previous four months heading into option expiration. We'll see if number five follows that pattern. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today. Still in short term overbought territory. Still below the levels of the recent highs for this indicator. It is another reason that leads me to believe that the SPY calls will work here. However if the VIX spikes up from here that trade idea would be dead. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to begin the trading week. We'll see how election Tuesday shapes up.
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