Monday, November 11, 2024
The Dow kept moving higher to start the week as the most watched index gained 304 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The overall market was a bit more subdued as both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 finished little changed. The technical condition for the S&P remains short term overbought and staying that way for now. We've got inflation data on tap this week for the market to deal with along with a Fed chairman speech. It's also option expiration week. So there will be plenty of excuses for the markets to move. Gold got clobbered again today as the futures lost $65. The US dollar was higher and the bond market was closed for Veterans day. The XAU fell 9 points and GDX lost 2 1/3. Volume was very heavy to the downside. My GDX November calls got killed. It was a 95 % loss as the gold shares opened with a huge gap lower. Another poor decision on my part for taking on this trade and the management of it stunk. The best result it got to was break even. GDX has broken the up trend line that began in February. Short term oversold and staying that way. The medium term picture has not made it to oversold yet. It appears that GDX is heading to its 200 day moving average at 35. The longer term bullish up trend line comes in at 29. I don't think that it is heading all the way back there but who knows? Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as my last few trades have been losers. But the markets don't care. As usual the one thing that you have to be able to do in this game is to keep moving on. I doubt I'll be taking on any trades here on expiration week but maybe. A short term SPY put trade would be the choice. But that sounds more like a revenge trade due to todays loss. The VIX was flat today. Still in a short term oversold condition. Not sure what comes next for the VIX but sideways isn't out of the question. It's back to the drawing board for me when it comes to the next trade to take on. Might have to sit on the sidelines for a while. Europe and Asia were higher to start the week with the exception of the Hang Seng. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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