Friday, January 10, 2025
The jobs report came in better than expected but good news was bad news for the stock market as the Dow lost 696 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving back down. Most of the major stock indices lost at least 1 1/2% on the session. The S&P 500 lost over ninety points and the short term indicators are moving lower. Not yet completely oversold on the S&P. My idea for the SPY january calls seems to be a mistake. However I did purchase some of them today despite the decline. This looks like an ill timed trade as it is showing a loss with only five days left in the January option cycle. The S&P 500 now lies on its up trend line that began back in October of 2023. Whether or not it holds on here will determine the outcome of this SPY trade. It appears as if the market is going to continue lower though as the summation index is falling below the zero line. I can't say that I wasn't warned. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on about average volume. Both finished well off of their best levels on the day. GDX met resistance at the short term down trend line and 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are beginning to stall. Gold up and the gold shares not following is not a plus for the gold share bulls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I probably should have just stayed on the sidelines with the current market environment. The signal to attempt the SPY calls here was not as strong as the most recent one that we saw last week. I'll be lucky to get out of this trade with a small loss and that may not even be possible. The VIX jumped today and the short term indicators are now moving up with plenty of room to go higher. This would be another reason to remain bearish heading into next week. Still below the 20 level but just about ready to head north of there with a repeat of todays price action. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend to get ready for Monday morning. Asia and Europe closed lower to finish the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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